US Equity Markets closed lower with risk appetite subdued amid pre-Thanksgiving positioning and after soft data, while the FOMC minutes were stale and noted that the Fed is in a position to proceed carefully whilst stressing the need for restrictive policy for some time. Furthermore, the Minutes also stated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside and growth risks to the downside although Fed pricing remained little changed in the wake of the release with nearly four 25bp rate cuts priced across 2024. The FOMC Minutes stated that all participants agreed that the FOMC was in a position to proceed carefully with all Members seeing Interest Rates remaining restrictive for some time. Furthermore, all participants agreed that policy decisions at every meeting would be based on ‘’incoming information’’. The U.S. Dollar was marginally firmer with tailwinds from a poor US 10yr TIPS auction and subsequent rise in yields, although gains were limited owing to soft data releases and uneventful FOMC Minutes which noted that all participants agreed that the FOMC was in a position to proceed carefully and saw rates remaining restrictive for some time. European Markets closed flat. The Euro was the laggard among the G10 currencies in which EUR/USD hit a low of 1.0901 after an earlier 3-month peak of 1.0964, while there were several ECB comments including from Lagarde who expects headline inflation to rise again slightly in the coming months and said the Bank needs to remain attentive until it has firm evidence that conditions are in place for inflation to return sustainably to the target. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold ended Tuesday with an impressive 1.1% gain.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 160 points yesterday and is now ahead by 945 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.20% lower at a price of 4538.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 62 points lower for a 0.28% loss at a price of 35,088.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.58% lower at a price of 15,933.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.09% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.1% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.1% lower at a price of 33,354.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.17% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.0910.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2534.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $148.25.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.58%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.11%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.40%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.01% higher at $77.53 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.1% higher at $1999.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Cash S&P 500
Although NVIDIA reported better than expected earnings after the close last night, it warned of a ‘’significant’’ China slowdown. Ahead of last night’s earning, Nvidia had rallied 28% in the past three weeks with the stock now having a valuation of $1.25 trillion. Excessive valuation? Who cares in this liquidity driven rally. I just cannot be a buyer at these levels given the number of negative divergences. I am still short the S&P from Monday at an average rate of 4533. Unfortunately, the S&P missed my 4524 T/P level with a 4526 low print before rallying to sit at 4536 this morning. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 4528 as I want to try and be flat for tomorrow’s Thanksgiving Holiday. I will leave my 4551 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well as the market sold off to my 1.0910 T/P level on Monday’s 1.0950 short position and I am now flat. With the 14-Day RSI closing at 69 last night, I will continue to look to be a seller of rallies. The Euro has resistance from 1.0980/1.1050 where I will be a seller with a higher 1.1105 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar had a small rally yesterday enabling me to cover my 103.40 long position at my revised 103.65 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 102.50/103.20 with a lower 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
No Change. Incredible 1400-point rally in the DAX in three weeks. Thankfully we had no short position in this market. As I cannot buy the DAX at these levels, nor do I want to be short I am going to stay flat the DAX until I see a better risk/reward opportunity. Sometimes it is better to sit on your hands. I much prefer to be short the American Indexes given the liquidity. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE missed my initial 7540 buy level by five points before having a small 40-point rally into the close. I am not going to chase the market higher, leaving my 7370/7440 buy level unchanged with the same 7325 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. The Dow is overbought and due a correction. Internally the market was weak yesterday as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed at 116 last night which was well below Monday’s +189 print. The $NYSI is now maximum overbought having been maximum oversold four weeks ago. This indicator shows the extent of the recent rally in American Indexes. Given the technical backdrop where a number of signals are showing negative divergence, I just cannot be a buyer at these levels. The Dow has further resistance from 35240/35490 where I will continue to be a seller with the same 35705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 35060.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My 15965 average short NDX position worked well as the market sold off to my 15870 T/P level and I am still flat. Given how severely overbought the NDX is trading I just cannot be a buyer of the U.S. Equity Markets at these levels even though we are in the seasonally strong Thanksgiving timeframe. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 15980/16130 with a higher 16205 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. I am reluctant to chase the Bund higher, leaving my 129.60/130.40 buy level unchanged with the same 128.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold hit a high at $2007 yesterday before having a small sell-off into the close and I am still flat. It is only a matter of time before Gold breaks higher given the number of unsuccessful tests so far at the 2000/2020 resistance level. I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1963/1978 with a higher 1949 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from six weeks ago at 24.05. Silver continues to trade in narrow ranges much to my frustration. I still believe that it is only a matter of time before Silver catches an aggressive bid and I want to be long for this move. In a change of strategy, I will have no stop or no T/P level on this position. This morning Silver is trading higher at 23.90. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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