A CPI print at 4.9% saw the NASDAQ end Wednesday’s session with a 1.11% gain after a volatile two-way trading session. The VIX got crushed again, closing lower by 4.36% at a price of 16.94. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said that it would take time for the full effects of interest rate hikes to fully permeate the entire economy. He added that inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target is not likely to happen over the next year. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, along with other congressional leaders made little progress Tuesday as the two sides attempted to find common ground on the debt ceiling stalemate. However, the two pledged to keep negotiations open with the goal of averting a first-ever U.S. default. Their next meeting is scheduled for tomorrow. Under Armour (UA) reported shrinking profit margins in its latest reporting quarter despite beating earnings and revenue estimates. The retailer warned that higher inventory discounting was the primary reason for smaller margins. These results could foreshadow an emerging trend for retailers as the largest of those are set to report earnings in the coming weeks. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel said that inflation remains far too high to consider anything other than a continuation of its rate hikes. Schnabel, one of the more hawkish voting members with significant influence, said that core inflation is the key metric the central bank wants to see fall before considering an end to rate hikes. In Asia, Italy has informed the U.S. that it is planning to end its participation in a controversial investment pact with China before the end of the year. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reassured US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that the nation is favouring an exit from the deal that has helped boost China’s infrastructure plans. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.56% while Gold closed lower by 0.20%.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 314 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2067 points for May. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.45% higher at a price of 4137.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 30 points lower for a 0.09% loss at a price of 33,531.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.11% higher at a price of 13,347.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.47% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.30% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.016% higher at a price of 29,126.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0982.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2630.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.8% closing at $134.23.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 2.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 3.80%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points lower at 3.44%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.56% lower at $72.56 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.20% lower at $2030.10 an ounce.
This afternoon on the Economic Front we have the Bank of England Rate Decision at 12.00 pm followed by Governor Bailey’s press conference at 12.30 pm. Next, at 1.30 pm we have U.S PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Waller at 3.15 pm and the ECB’s De Guindos at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
A frustrating session for my S&P calls as the market missed my 4160-sell level with a 4158 high before selling off in the afternoon to a 4099 low print – one Handle above my 4098-buy level. Subsequently the S&P soared over 40 Handles into the close. The 4.9% print in CPI saw the S&P gap higher as some inflation measures continue to fall. The sell-off that ensued was quite aggressive and offered the prospect of finally seeing a proper reversal with follow through. However, the market went straight higher led by the vertical move in tech. The selloffs have back and forth price discovery while the vertical rallies have none, they just go straight up with zero two-way price discovery. In my opinion this is not the hallmark of a healthy market. For bears to regain control we need the large Cap Tech stocks to rollover before we get any proper sell-off in this market. I will now raise my S&P sell level to 4170/4185 with a 4201 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my buy level to 4095/4110 with a higher 4070 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long from Tuesday at 1.0985 with the same 1.1040 T/P level. buy level. I will add to this position at 1.0920 while leaving my 1.0865 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 99.90/100.60. with the same 99.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Despite the DAX trading close to all-time highs, I do not like the price action and the overpriced valuations at these levels. After the DAX hit my buy level at 15830, I exited this position at my revised 15868 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the DAX is trading higher at 15915. We have resistance from 16010/16100. I will now lower my sell level to this area with a 16185 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be a buyer of the DAX.
Cash FTSE
Stronger Sterling and higher Gilt Yields is pressuring the FTSE over the last week. Yesterday the FTSE hit my 7710-buy level before rallying to my revised 7740 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has strong support from 7630/7690 where I will again be a buyer with a 7575 lower ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 33380-buy level before rallying to my 33540 T/P level and I am now flat. Overall, the Dow continues to struggle above its 50-Day Moving Average which has now moved higher to 33134. This continues to be the main pivot point For the Dow. As long as this support holds, I will continue to be a strong buyer on dips. The Dow has support from 33100/33350 where I will be a buyer with a 32995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has resistance from 33900/34150 where I will be a small seller with a 34305 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
After the DAX hit my 15350-sell level we had a small sell-off enabling me to cover this position at my revised 15300 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX gapped lower yesterday before trading in a narrow range for the rest of Tuesday’s session. I am still flat. With Apple and Microsoft continuing to trade above their Daily Bollinger Bands I just cannot justify a long NDX position at these levels. Ahead of PPI this afternoon I will have a sell level from 15410/15560 with a higher 15705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NDX has short-term support from 12900/13050 where I will still be a buyer with a 12795 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June BUND
Weaker than expected U.S. CPI saw the Bund have a small rally. This move saw my 135.88 revised T/P level executed and I am now flat. This morning, the Bund is trading higher at 136.20. We have support from 134.90/135.60 where I will be a buyer with a higher 134.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to consolidate about the now strong support level at 2000. Even though I am still long Silber, I will now raise my buy level to 1988/2003. I will have a 2013 T/P level if triggered with a now higher 1975 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long from Friday at 25.40 with the same 26.20 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position at 24.60 while leaving my 23.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Recent Comments