Following one of the most volatile trading sessions in over two years U.S. Equity Markets finished the day lower, led by the S&P ending yesterday with a loss of 0.72%. Yesterday, the third round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials made no progress on resolving the conflict. The talks will continue, with the two countries’ Foreign Ministers set to meet tomorrow in Turkey. Later in the afternoon, the headlines continued – with President Joe Biden announcing a ban on Russian oil imports. This drove oil prices higher, and equities lower – on concerns that higher oil prices would drive inflation higher in tandem. Earlier, markets rallied off the lows on optimism that the conflict may be easing. The Agency France-Presse reported that Ukraine was no longer pushing to become a member of NATO. This has been one of the biggest sticking points for Russia in negotiations. It does not want Ukraine in NATO. Thus, if Ukraine is no longer pursuing NATO membership, it could lead to diplomatic solution. The volatile trading will continue as investors continue to digest these headlines. The conflict won’t end soon. And as we’ve seen, talks between the two sides have not progressed. This could continue to be a near-term overhang for markets in the coming days and weeks. That is exactly what we saw heading into the close last night as Bears pushed markets lower. The advances and declines were more balanced in the S&P 500. Energy stocks were the leaders, as a Russian oil ban means less supply – which pushes energy prices higher and makes margins thicker for oil and gas companies. Within the S&P 500, nine of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed mixed. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country reserves the right to shut off energy supplies to all of Europe in response to current economic sanctions. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said the government is committed to quickly reducing its dependence on Russian energy resources. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there is a step-by-step plan to reduce dependence on Russian energy, as opposed to an all-out ban. The European Union (“EU”) announced a plan to fully stop any fossil fuel imports from Russia by 2030 to diversify its energy supply, while moving quickly to takes these steps in 2022. The EU also pledged to reduce purchases of Russian gas by about two-thirds by the end of 2022. In Asia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing’s relationship with Russia was “rock solid” while reiterating his appeal for a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Ukraine. The Bank of Japan is expected to downgrade its domestic economic growth assessment when it updates its monetary policy outlook next week. The People’s Bank of China removed roughly $6.5 billion worth of funds from the financial system, saying it wanted to maintain ample liquidity. Taiwan’s export growth for February more than doubled expectations, hitting a seven-month high as semiconductor shipments surged. Elsewhere, Oil rose 3.6% as Biden announced a ban on Russian oil imports, while Gold rose 3.11% to a new all-time high as investors continued to rotate into haven assets.

To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details 

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 489 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1904 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

Equities 

The S&P 500 closed 0.72% lower at a price of 4170. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points lower for a 0.56% loss at a price of 32,632. 

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.39% lower at a price of 13,267. 

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher. 

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%. 

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.3% lower at a price of 24,717. 

Currencies  

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower. 

The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0898. 

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3105. 

The Japanese Yen fell 0.4%, closing at $115.81. 

Bonds 

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 13 basis points higher at 0.11%. 

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 15 basis points higher at 1.45%. 

US 10 Year Treasury closed eight basis points higher 1.78%. 

Commodities 

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.6% higher at 123.70 a barrel, the highest level since 2008. 

Gold closed 3.11% higher at $2,062.10 an ounce. 

This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or Euro-Zone. At 12. 00 pm, we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications. Finally, we have the JOLTS Job Opening at 3.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500 

My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 4160 buy level before rallying 4198 T/P level with a rebound high at 4276, before the market got slammed into the close, falling 130 Handles. As I mentioned in my Commentary above, this was the most volatile trading session in points terms in over two years with vicious moves in both directions. Despite the negativity, the S&P still has not broken its low from two weeks ago (4105) even though it has had plenty of opportunity to do so. This morning the S&P is trading 40 Handles higher than last night’s close. We all know that wars are bullish for infrastructure and is one of the main reasons that I have consistently buying the dip. We have not seen a proper counter rally in many weeks despite the Charts showing an extremely oversold market. One positive headline saw the S&P rally 120 Handles in 30 minutes yesterday before reversing these gains into the close. This is one of the main reasons that when I am buying, I have no stop. I do not know how long Russia can exist under the severe restrictions implemented by the West over the past week. Russia now has no trade while its Central Bank cannot deal on the open market. The Economy is imploding and will get a lot worse. One of the main reasons holding the S&P holding up is the record number of ‘’buybacks’’. These buybacks are enormous. If the S&P does break lower, we have strong support from 4000/4050 where I will be an aggressive buyer with no stop and no T/P level if triggered. The ‘’Fear & Greed ‘’ Index closed again last night with a reading of 13  which is ‘’Extreme Fear’’. This in another reason to expect a rip- roaring rally as I wait for a catalyst for this rally to start. The S&P has support from 4120/4160 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4198. Given how oversold the markets are trading, I do not want to be short the S&P at this time.

EUR/USD 

Finally, the Euro rallied to my 1.0930 T/P level on my 1.0886 average long position and I am now flat. The Euro is severely oversold, has support from 1.0830/1.0890 where I will again be a buyer with no stop.

March Dollar Index 

No Change. I am still short from yesterday morning at a price of 99.20 with a now higher 98.70 T/P level and 100.05 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. 

Cash DAX 

Unfortunately, the DAX just missed my 12500 third buy level. I am still long at 13500 as the DAX rallied over 700 points at one stage before having a small sell-off into the New York close. This morning the DAX is opening higher, trading at 13300. I will now lower my exit level on my existing long position to 13430 as I am happy to take a small loss on this position given how far offside I was on the trade. If this level is triggered, I will come back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash FTSE 

Just as I posted yesterday morning the FTSE rallied to my 6995 T/P level on my 6985 long position and I am still flat. This morning, the FTSE is trading higher at 7120 which is no surprise given how oversold European Equity Markets are at this time. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 6960/7030 with a 6895 stop.

Dow Rolling Contract 

The late sell-off saw the Dow just miss my 32500 buy level and I am still flat. The Dow traded in a near 900 points yesterday, trading this range on two occasions. I do not know how you can operate a proper stop given this volatility and is the main reason why I am trading with a smaller stake size and no stop. Apart from the DAX and NDX positions, this strategy has worked extremely well. The Dow is severely oversold, has support from 32300/32600 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 32910.

Cash NASDAQ 100 

No Change. I am still long and wrong in the NDX at a price of 13905. Even though I am offside on this position I still believe we are going to see a massive short-covering rally which can start at any moment. I will leave my 13960 T/P level unchanged and if this level is triggered, I will come back with an update for my Platinum Members.

June BUND 

My Bund plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 165.20 buy level before rallying to my 165.75 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently, the Bund fell 100 points, before opening slightly higher this morning at 165.10. The June Bund has support from 164.00/164.60 where I will be a small buyer with a 163.45 stop.

Gold Rolling Contract 

Gold rallied to a new all-time yesterday, above $2065 yesterday. Thankfully, I have stayed flat as I did not see this move happening. Gold is severely overbought. I still do not want to go short Gold and I will stay flat until I feel I have a better edge in this market.

Silver Rolling Contract 

I am still flat Silver as the market again missed my buy level before rallying to sit at 26.45 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 25.00/25.60 with a 24.05 wider stop.