Following another volatile trading session, U.S. Equity Markets reversed earlier gains before selling off into the close, led by the NASDAQ 100 which ended with a loss of 1.46%. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she does not anticipate a major hit to the domestic growth trajectory from the war in Ukraine. Later in the day, a nuclear deal with Iran took focus. Markets rallied late in the morning on optimism that a deal could be reached, as it would mean more oil enters the market – easing inflation pressures, but reports of talks falling apart sent markets lower again into the afternoon. Throughout the afternoon, markets rallied off the lows after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that a 25-basis-point rate hike is coming this month, giving a sense of certainty to the central bank’s upcoming policy decision. However, he did warn that the ongoing Ukrainian conflict could push inflation higher. Again, markets lost steam heading into the close – continuing their volatile trade. Economic data was mixed. Jobless Claims fell and beat estimates, in another strong showing for the labour market. However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to the lowest level in almost a year on weakness in Employment and Orders. The advances and declines were almost even. There were big post-earnings moves from Splunk (SPLK), Pure Storage (PSTG), and Kroger (KR). Semiconductors and memory names weighed down the tech sector, after Western Digital (WDC) posted a weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings forecast. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said the country had sent a delegation to the Belarussian border for additional peace talks with Russia. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said it will do “whatever’s necessary” to support the economy in response to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Bank of England member Silvana Tenreyro said the Ukraine conflict would hurt economic growth and push energy prices higher, worsening inflation in the short term. In Asia, China’s government supposedly instructed the National Development and Reform Commission to source new commodity supplies disrupted by the Ukraine conflict. Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa said inflation could temporarily hit 2% in the spring, but it must maintain accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth. South Korea’s preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product expansion was stronger than anticipated, driven by a rebound in household spending. Taiwan suffered widespread power outages due to a malfunction in its southern power grid, potentially affecting technology plants at the Tainan Science Park. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2.65% as investors digested news of a possible Iranian nuclear deal, which would add supply back to the market, while Gold rose 1% as investors rotated back into haven assets.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 110 points yesterday and is now ahead by 390 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.53% lower at a price of 4363.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 96 points lower for a 0.29% loss at a price of 33,794.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.46% lower at a price of 14,035.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.1% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.23% lower at a price of 25,985.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.1071.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.3347.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $115.37.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.01%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 1.30%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points lower 1.83%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.65% lower at 107.67 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.96% higher at $1,938.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Markit Construction PMI at 9.30 am, followed by Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, including Average Earning and the Unemployment rate. This is the main Economic release today, where the expectation is for a 400K increase in payrolls.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P rallied to my 4400/4420 resistance level with a 4421 high print before selling off to my 4358 buy level. Subsequently, we rallied to my 4378 T/P level and I am now flat. Overnight the S&P has been volatile, following the Russian bombing of the largest Nuclear Reactor in Ukraine. According to reports the fire has now been put out. The S&P hit a low at 4287 on this news before rallying to sit at 4347 as I go to press. Russia continues to dominate the news hence plenty of choppy price action. On the one hand we are seeing an agreement that will allow civilians leave unharmed, while on the other there is plenty of skepticism that Russia will adhere to any cease fire to let these civilians leave. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 4290/4320 with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4345. The S&P has short-term resistance from 4400/4420 and a break and close above here will see a rally to 4470/4500 and then 4525/4565 where I will be an aggressive seller with no stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4485.
EUR/USD
The Euro got hit hard again overnight as the investors continue to pile into the U.S. Dollar. This morning the Euro is trading at 1.1005 and I am still flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.0870/1.0930 where I will be an aggressive buyer with no stop. The Euro has resistance from 1.1160/1.1220 where I will be a small seller with a 1.1295 wider stop.
March Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar traded in a narrow range yesterday. I am still short at 97.30 with the same 97.10 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop for now.
Cash DAX
The DAX is trading 500 points lower from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. This initial move lower has me long at an average price of 13700. I am still long as I emailed my Platinum Members who are long to continue holding this position with no stop. We have had an excellent start to the year and is the main reason I am holding this position. The DAX is oversold and I will add to this trade at 13300 while lowering my T/P level to 13750. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan did not work well yesterday as after the market hit my 7320 buy level I was stopped out of this trade at 7235. I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the FTSE again which I did at a price of 7160. I am still long with a 7215 T/P level and no stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 33800 average long position before rallying to my 33980 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow hit an overnight low at 33260 before following the S&P higher, sitting at 33720 as I go to press. The Dow has support from 33280//33480 where I will be a small buyer with no stop for now. If this buy range is triggered, I will come back with a new update as I want where possible to be flat ahead of the weekend.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX reversed earlier gains, trading the whole of my buy range for a 14130 average long position before stopping me out of this trade overnight at 13945. This morning the NDX is trading slightly higher at 13980 and I have bought the market here. I will add to this trade at 13830 with no stop for now. I will have a T/P level at 14110 on this position.
March BUND
No Change. I am still long the Bund at 169.30 with the same 169.70 T/P level. I will leave my 168.75 stop unchanged and if any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. Gold has resistance from 1970/1985 where I will be a very small seller with a 2001 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 24.00/24.60 with the same 23.35 stop.
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