Following a volatile start to the week, U.S. Equity Markets recovered most of their afternoon losses to end yesterday’s session mixed. Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his nuclear forces on higher alert, stoking concerns about the Ukraine conflict growing beyond its borders. The White House and its European allies said they would remove some Russian banks from the SWIFT global payments system, essentially blocking the country’s imports and exports. However, Russia said the SWIFT ban would still allow other countries to buy Russian oil and gas. Elsewhere, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said that he is leaning toward a 25-basis-point (0.25%) rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting. He added that the Fed can pull back on its support and let the U.S. economy stand on its own. This favours a more gradual tightening, easing some of the fears that the Fed would pull back on support too quickly, choking off economic growth. Tech shares outperformed, as declining bond yields lowered concerns that borrowing costs were going to jump. The declines far outnumbered the advances. On the positive side, defense names were one of the few bright spots. Increased tensions in Europe led countries to pledge more of their gross domestic product to defense budgets, boosting the demand for companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT). Financials were among the underperformers, as declining bond yields implied lower margins for the sector. Within the S&P 500, six of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Bloc would fund the purchase of weapons by Ukraine and ban Russian aircraft from flying over European Union airspace. Russia’s central bank doubled its interest rate to 20% to fight a depreciating Ruble, which fell about 30% versus the dollar. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the government will increase defense spending above 2% of economic output in response to the Ukraine invasion. In Asia, growing sanctions on Russia increased worries that global oil supply will be further constricted just as demand is rebounding, pushing inflation higher. Japan’s preliminary Industrial Production figures for January contracted more than expected, as automobile output remained constrained. Two of China’s largest state-owned banks said they would curb financing activity for Russian-based commodity purchases. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the U.S. should continue dialogue with Beijing, expanding economic and trade cooperation. Elsewhere, Oil rose 4.52% as sanctions on Russia continued to indicate constrained oil supply, while Gold closed 1.24% higher as investors continued to rotate into safe-haven assets.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 40 points yesterday, for an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.24% lower at a price of 4373.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 166 points lower for a 0.49% loss at a price of 33,892.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.34% higher at a price of 14,237.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.20% higher at a price of 26,844.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.5% lower at $1.1208.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.3435.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3%, closing at $115.09.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed eight basis points lower at 0.14%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed eight basis points lower at 1.38%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed ten basis points lower at 1.87%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.52% higher at 95.72 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.24% higher at $1,907.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Also, at 9.30 am we have U.K. Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals and Money Supply. Next, we have German CPI at 1.00 pm, followed by U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P just missed my 4290 buy level by seven Handles before turning around and having a huge rally into the close. Whether it was a ‘’Month-end mark up’’ rally, it was impressive given the news drop. I have a target level of 4550 on the S&P and possibly 4660 for March. We will probably need to see a cease fire from Russia for my target level to be hit but the price action since Thursday’s invasion has been impressive. The S&P has support from 4340/4370. I will move my buy level to this range with no stop. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as the market just missed my buy level before the Dollar sold off after risk assets rallied. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1130/1.1180 with a 1.1075 stop. I will continue to be a small seller from 1.1295/1.1345 with the same 1.1381 tight stop.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market fell shy of yesterday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 97.00/97.50 with no stop for now.
Cash DAX
Although the DAX traded heavy for most of yesterday, the market had a nice rally into the New York close and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 14180/14270 with a 14095 stop. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE missed my initial 7320 buy level before having a small rally into the close. Today, I will raise my buy level 7310/7380 with again no stop for now. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7425. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Although the Dow was the underperformer yesterday, closing lower by 0.49%, we still saw an impressive 400 point rally in the last 90 minutes of trading. This rally continued overnight, as the Dow is trading at 34050 as I go to press. A break and close over Friday’s 34200 high will be short-term bullish, targeting the 35000 resistance area. We have support from 33450/33750 where I will be a small buyer with no stop. Given how oversold the Dow remains I still do not want to be short the market at this time..
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to yesterday’s buy range, rallying for most of the day before building on these gains in the last hour of trading, helped by the 10-point fall in Treasury Yields. With the 200-Day Moving Average at 15085, there is no reason why we cannot test this level over the short-term. It is now clear that the Fed will only hike by 0.25% given the political back-drop. Today, I will raise my buy level to 14050/14150 with a 13895 wider stop.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 166.30 buy level before rallying to my 166.70 T/P level and I am still flat.. This morning the Bund is opening higher at 167.40. We have support from 166.30/166.90 where I will again be a buyer with a 165.75 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. My only interest in buying Gold is still on a dip lower to 1853/1868 with the same wider 1839 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 23.30/23.90 with no stop.
Recent Comments