U.S. Equity Markets reversed earlier losses yesterday to close higher across the board. The NASDAQ 100 led the rally, closing with a gain of 3.44%. There were a lot of headlines to digest in this space. Ukraine’s government declared a state of emergency, while the White House announced new sanctions on Russia, including sanctions on more Russian banks. But this removes some uncertainty from the markets. As a result, money managers and analysts can begin to discern the winners from the losers. They have already done homework on how it affects different investments based on the outcome. That is why we saw markets surge from their early-morning lows. Tech stocks were a bright spot. The stampede into safety pushed down Treasury yields. And this is a good thing for tech stocks, as one of the main bear cases for the sector recently was that higher bond yields would push up borrowing costs and hurt growth. Thus, the steep decline in yields was a welcome relief for tech names. Tech and communications names were the positives. Cybersecurity names posted big gains, as reports of a Russian cyberattack on Ukraine boosted the use case for cybersecurity offerings. Energy stocks were the big underperformer, despite the Russia tensions pushing crude toward $100 per barrel. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. Aside from Russia headlines, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said inflation may remain higher for longer than expected, potentially forcing the ECB to end bond purchases sooner than expected. But again, Russia dominated the headlines and there was little else in focus for investors. In Asia, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said Beijing was opposed to Russian sanctions, blaming the U.S. for worsening tensions with Ukraine. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said current inflation metrics are unlikely to lead to a change in monetary policy. The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged but said inflation is likely to remain above 3% for a considerable amount of time. The People’s Bank of China added another $30 billion worth of funds to the financial system to ensure ample liquidity ahead of month’s end. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.31% as the U.S. announced new sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, while after a volatile session Gold reversed earlier gains, closing lower by 0.67%.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 120 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4958 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.50% higher at a price of 4288.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points higher for a 0.28% gain at a price of 33,223.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 3.44% higher at a price of 13.974.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 3.1% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.95% higher at a price of 26,476.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.8% lower at $1.1202.
The British Pound closed 1.2% lower at 1.3401.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $115.26.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at 0.18%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 1.45%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points lower at 1.94%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.31% higher at 93.50 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.67% lower at $1,895.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GDP for Q4 which fell 0.3% versus -0.7% expected. At 9.00 am we have Euro-Zone Money Supply, followed at 10.00 am by Economic Sentiment Indicator and Consumer Confidence. Next, we have U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income/Spending at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Pending Home Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Cash S&P 500
The infamous saying of buying ‘’when there is blood on the street’’ certainly paid dividends yesterday as the S&P reversed an earlier 100 Handle loss, by rallying 180 Handles into the close. This rally was not unexpected because if you look at past history, every time we have seen a war start it is followed by a massive rally in Equity Markets. Yesterday’s insane rally saw the S&P finish 1.50% higher, after starting the afternoon off with a loss of over 2%. I have been preaching almost every day this year that the only way to trade these markets is with controlled stake size and no stops. This strategy worked well yesterday with the S&P rallying off its 4106 morning low to hit my revised 4270 T/P level on Wednesday’s 4255 average long position and I am still flat. The big question is have we seen the low? In my opinion this is a strong possibility given the size of the weekly candle. I am looking for the S&P to trade back to the 4600 level over the coming weeks. Having said all that there is much work to be done given the fact that none of the key Moving Averages have been captured yet. There are tons of risk with Russia. Despite yesterday’s carnage the VIX closed 2.26% lower at a price of 30.32 after opening 20% higher. This is positive. If the VIX can close back below 25 by Monday it will be a big positive for the S&P. Today, I will be a buyer on any further dip to 4190/4220 with no stop.
EUR/USD
Yesterday was another of example why stops are bad in these volatile markets. After the Euro traded the whole of my buy range for a 1.1235 average long position, I was stopped out of this trade at 1.1155 (low 1.1105) before the Euro reversed to sit higher at 1.1210 this morning. The Euro has resistance from 1.1260/1.1310 where I will be a small seller with no stop. The Euro has support from 1.1100/1.1150 where I will again be a buyer with no stop.
March Dollar Index
My Dollar plan did not work yesterday as after the Dollar rallied to my 96.80 average sell level I was stopped out of this trade at 97.35 and I am still flat. Frustratingly, the Dollar is trading lower at 96.90 this morning. The Dollar has resistance from 97.30/97.80 where I will again be a seller with no stop.
Cash DAX
The DAX opened below yesterday’s buy range and stop and I did not trade and I am still flat. The DAX made a low at 13750 before turning around and rallying over 600 points into the New York close. The DAX has support from 13850/13950 where I will be a buyer with a 13735 wider stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the market.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan did not work well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 7350 average long position before stopping me out of this trade at 7295 and I am still flat. This morning the FTSE is trading slightly lower at 7265. We have support from 7140/7220 where I will again be a buyer with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7265. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 33200 with a now lower 33280 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop and ahead of the weekend I will not add to this position despite the belief that yesterday saw at least a temporary bottom in the market. If this level is triggered, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
An incredible turnaround in the NDX yesterday, with the market trading lower by over 2% before we saw massive buying in tech stocks, helping drive the NDX to a gain of 3.44%. This move higher saw my 13900 exit level triggered on my 13980 average long position and I am now flat. The NDX has resistance from 13980/14100 where I will be a small seller with a 14205 tight stop. The NDX has support from 13450/13600 where I will be an aggressive buyer with no stop.
March BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 165.50/166.10 with a 164.95 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rallied to a high above $1990 yesterday morning before getting hit hard, trading to a low of 1877, just missing my 1870 buy level before rallying this morning on more aggressive action by Russia, to sit at 1912 as I go to press. As a result of yesterday’s reversal a lot of traders are trapped long. I will now raise my Gold buy level to 1865/1880 with a higher 1849 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver reversed off its 25.61 yesterday morning high, hitting my 24.10 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 24.55 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 23.40 with no stop and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments