U.S. Equity Markets got hit hard yesterday after America again spooked markets saying a Russian Invasion is imminent. The NDX led the declines, closing lower by 2.60%. Russia remained the focus of the media headlines. Yesterday morning, the White House joined allies in placing sanctions on Russia. And then the White House said a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had been cancelled due to Moscow’s Ukraine invasion plans. This spooked investors, as it potentially lowers the chances for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. In terms of central-bank policy, the ongoing conflict has little bearing on what the Federal Reserve will do at its March meeting. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said geopolitical tensions increased economic risks, but he still favours raising interest rates in March. So, while the talk of a 50-basis-point hike has cooled, the Fed is still going to tighten at next month’s meeting. Again, the declines outnumbered the advances. Energy stocks provided a small bright spot, with pipeline operator Williams (WMB) posting a strong quarterly report. On the downside, tech and discretionary stocks were the main drags on the market, as these sectors are an easy source of funds when risk appetite falls. Within the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union will introduce sanctions to limit Russia’s ability to raise capital in regional financial markets. Iranian government officials expressed optimism over progress made in talks toward restoring the 2015 nuclear accord and easing sanctions. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann said it could begin raising rates as soon as this summer, before winding down its quantitative-easing programme. In Asia, Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun said Beijing will introduce larger tax cuts and increase payments to local governments in an attempt to boost economic growth. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the country will join the U.S. and Europe in imposing sanctions against Russia and breakaway states in eastern Ukraine. The People’s Bank of China added roughly $30 billion worth of funds to the financial system to ensure ample liquidity ahead of month-end. The Bank of Korea’s manufacturing Business Confidence Index for March was up from February, hitting the highest level since October. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2% while both Gold and Bitcoin were little changed.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 40 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5078 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.84% lower at a price of 4225.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 434 points lower for a 1.38% loss at a price of 33,131.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.60% lower at a price of 13.509.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.1% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.71% lower at a price of 26,449.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1304.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.3540.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $114.95.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.23%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 1.49%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points higher at 1.98%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.8% lower at 92.10% a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% higher at $1,907.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no European or U.K. data of note. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and the PCE Deflator. This is followed by New Home Sales at 3.00 pm and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 4.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Mester at 5.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Yet another trading session where the S&P was up big in the afternoon, trading to a high of 4341 before getting slammed into the close, testing the January low, closing at 4225. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range executed and I am now long at an average rate of 4255 with no stop. The Platinum Service has had a phenomenal start to 2022 and is the main reason why I am holding this long position with no stop. The Charts that I follow are showing a severely oversold markets from which we have always seen a vicious rally. I am trying to capture this potential move higher by trading less and more strategically. As we have seen over the past few weeks it is very difficult to have a ‘’Fixed Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 4285 and if this level is triggered, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. The S&P is now trading far outside its Daily Bollinger Band. We have nearby support at 4205 but for now I will not add to my existing long position.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still flat as I look to buy the Euro from 1.1210/1.1260 where I will be an aggressive buyer with the same 1.1155 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar has resistance from 96.40/9690 where I will again be a seller with a higher 97.35 stop.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. As I am now long all three U.S. Markets, I will now lower my DAX buy level to 14100/14220 with a wider 13995 stop.
Cash FTSE
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 7340/7400 with the same 7295 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow got hit hard yesterday, closing below the January low. Just like the S&P above this market is severely oversold, further putting pressure on the Fed who still have not stopped printing much less hiking rates. If this melt-down continues we will see less rate hikes than have been projected by the various Fed Members who have been speaking continuously on the newswires over the past two weeks. Yesterday’s move lower has me long the Dow at an average rate of 33200. This is near recent lows. I have no stop and I will now lower my T/P level to 33390. If this level is triggered, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Just before the close the NDX hit my second buy level at 13600 for a now 13980 average long position. The tape remains horrid while we only have three trading sessions left this month to make something happen for the bulls. The Rhetoric for a full- scale invasion by Russia keeps being heated up while China is accusing America of exaggerating the whole thing. Oversold readings are becoming more oversold and there is absolutely no chance of the Fed being aggressive in this environment. I will now lower my NDX exit level to 13900 and if this level is executed I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 165.50 buy level before rallying to my 165.90 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 164.80/165.30 with a 164.15 stop If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 165.75.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has done very little since testing the $1900 area last Friday. I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase the market higher, leaving my1855/1870 buy level unchanged with the same 1839 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Silver rallied hard into the New York close. I will now raise my buy level to 23.70/24.30 with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 24.75.
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