Following an incredibly volatile trading which saw plenty of two-way price action U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s trading session lower, led by Dow which fell 1.50%. There was a lot of news to digest from over the weekend on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (more on those developments below). Yesterday, Russian lawmakers have given Putin approval for the use of military force outside of the country. The country’s upper house voted unanimously in favour of the measure. The gesture reportedly allows for the movement of military personnel into Eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said President Joe Biden’s administration thinks this is the beginning of a more widespread invasion. This spooked investors, as it indicates that the situation in Europe is getting worse. Aside from the Russia news, there were a few pieces of economic data released. Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers for February came in above estimates, with orders jumping and inflation pressures falling to a nine-month low. Elsewhere, Consumer Confidence fell, missing estimates, as inflation concerns rose for the first time in three months. Within the S&P 500 Index, the declines outnumbered the advances today. Home Depot (HD) was among the big decliners, after its earnings and revenue forecasts fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. On the positive side, Kraft Heinz (KHC) shares rose after the company raised its long-term revenue and earnings growth outlooks. In the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed mixed. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the government would recognise the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, sending in military personnel to “maintain peace.” The U.S. and its European allies said they were prepared to move forward with severe sanctions if Russia moves forward with a full-on invasion of Ukraine. German Business Confidence rose in February as businesses were more optimistic on current demand, though the Institute for Economic Research warned that the Ukraine situation could dent sentiment in the near future. In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the country is prepared to support sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies if Russia orders an attack on Ukraine. The People’s Bank of China added roughly $14.2 billion worth of funds to the financial system to ensure ample liquidity ahead of month-end. China’s large banks were said to lower mortgage rates for homebuyers, despite the central bank leaving its benchmark one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged. South Korea’s preliminary export growth for February showed the total value remained steady compared with January on continued strength in semiconductor demand. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.5% as the ongoing situation with Russia and Ukraine raised concerns about energy supply in Europe, while Bitcoin fell 6% along with Tech Stocks.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 299 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5038 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.01% lower at a price of 4304.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 482 points lower for a 1.42% loss at a price of 33,596.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1% lower at a price of 13,870.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.71% lower at a price of 26,449.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1326.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3585.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $115.05.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 0.24%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed seven basis points higher at 1.48%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.94%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.5% higher at $95.25 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.16% higher at $1,905.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am. Next, we have the latest Monetary Report Hearings from the Bank of England at 9.30 am, followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. Finally, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
This market is not for the squeamish as reflected in yesterday’s price action which saw plenty of two-way volatility. The market has a massive rip off overnight lows, completely filling Friday’s ‘’Open Gap’’ before selling off aggressively, only to rally into the close and again overnight. Frustratingly, the S&P missed my buy level by seven Handles before rallying to sit higher at 4320 as I go to press. So far, the January lows are holding which is a plus and given all the negative news over the past week, this is a positive development. Despite yesterday’s wide price action, the VIX only closed higher by 3%. For Bulls to regain control we need the S&P to close back above 440 by next Monday. Today, I will raise my buy level to 4250/4280 with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4312. Given how oversold the markets are trading I do not want to be short the market at this time.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro has support from 1.1210/1.1270 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.1155 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar has resistance from 96.30/96.70 where I will again be a seller with the same tight 97.05 stop.
Cash DAX
The DAX missed my 14200 ambitious price level by just 100 points before rallying over 400 points into the New York close and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 14300/14400 with a wide 14195 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE also missed my buy level by a few points before rallying throughout yesterday as expected and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 7340/7420 with a tight 7295 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
With Equity Markets so oversold I am sticking to my game plan of buying the dip. It will only take one piece of positive news to spark a vicious relief rally. Markets are going have a ‘’Double Bottom’’ off the January low or burst through this key support. Sentiment levels are on the floor which is no surprise given how itchy and despondent investors are, as they sit on massive losses so far this year. Most of the large Funds hold Facebook which has fallen from a high of $380 (last October) to $206 now. This is a massive destruction of capital. My Dow plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 33380 buy level before rallying to my 33590 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has support from 33100/33300 where I will again be a buyer with no stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still long and wrong the NDX from last week at a price of 14360. I will now look to add to this trade at 13700. Meanwhile, I will look to exit this existing long position at 14200. If any of these levels are filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 165.50 buy level before rallying to my 165.94 revised T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 165.00/165.50 with the same 164.65 stop If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 165.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1855/1870 with a wider 1839 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 23.70 long position worked well with the market trading higher to my 24.15 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 23.15/23/75 with no stop and the same 24.15 T/P level if executed.
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