Despite both America and Canada closed for Bank Holiday’s it has been a wild 24 hours since yesterday’s Daily Commentary. Late Sunday night, there appeared to be a diplomatic path forward due to talk about a Biden-Putin summit but it very quickly became clear that was not going to happen. Instead, the temperature continued to rise and a meeting of Russia’s Security Council was broadcast with virtually everyone urging Putin to declare Donbas regions independent. The meeting ended on a cliffhanger but Putin held a speech later. During the speech he was hitting hard. The rhetoric was much more intense than expected and that caused some jitters, with USD/RUB hitting above 80.00 on momentary fears that he was about to announce a wholesale invasion. Ultimately, he stuck to the baseline and declared the regions independent. We later learned the lines would be drawn where the separatists currently control (not the entire regions). That has not led to much relief yet but so far the talk on sanctions is light. We will wait to see how Ukraine reacts. The German DAX took the brunt of yesterday’s European sell-off, closing lower by 2.1%, before falling another 1.5% in after-hours trading. Meanwhile, the Russian Stock Market (MOE Index) closed lower by 10.5%. The S&P Futures closed lower by 54 Handles and as I go to press as trading a further 20 Handles lower at a price of 4275. The S&P was not helped by comments from Fed Member Bowman that left a larger dent in markets. The core of the Fed appeared to be coordinating efforts to play down the possibility of a 50 bps rate hike but a governor just torpedoed that. She did not tip her hand but it looks like we will go into the March decision not knowing which way it will go.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 280 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4739 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.72% lower at a price of 4348.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 232 points lower for a 0.68% loss at a price of 34,079.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.14% lower at a price of 14,009.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.1% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.78% lower at a price of 26,910.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1315.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3597.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3%, closing at $114.73.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 0.21%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 1.41%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points lower at 1.92%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3% higher at $93.95% a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $1,902.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00am. Next, we have U.S. Markit Services PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market hitting my 4312 revised buy level before rallying to my 4330 T/P level and I am now flat. Yesterday’s move lower has the S&P severely oversold and due a relief bounce. We have support from 4230/4260 where I will again be a buyer with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4295. Remember, the S&P closed at 4348 last Friday leaving a massive unfilled ‘’Open. Given how oversold the markets are trading I do not want to be short the market at this time.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 1.1380 sell level before selling off to my 1.1350 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro has support from 1.1210/1.1270 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.1155 wider stop. I do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar has resistance from 96.30/96.70 where I will again be a seller with the same tight 97.05 stop.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan was clearly wrong yesterday as the Market fell a huge 600 points from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. The only good thing about yesterday as I had a tight 14745 stop on my 14850 average long position with the DAX hitting a closing low in New York at 14450. The DAX has support below from 14150/14250 where I will again be a buyer with a 13995 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14340.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well as the FTSE continues to be the strongest of the five Equity Markets that I cover. The FTSE hit my 7450 buy level before rallying to my 7485 T/P level and I am still flat. The FTSE has support from 7290/7350 where I will again be a buyer with a 7215 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 33880 buy level before rallying 150 points. This move higher saw my 33980 revised T/P level triggered and I am still flat. The Dow has strong support from 33150/33400 where I will again be a buyer with no stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still long and wrong the NDX from last week at a price of 14360. I will now look to add to this trade at 13550. If this level is filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 165.80 buy level before rallying to my 166.20 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 165.10/165.60 with a 164.65 stop If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 166.00.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded in a narrow range on Friday and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1855/1870 with a wider 1839 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Yesterday, Silver traded lower to my 23.70 buy level. I am still long with the same 24.15 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 23.10 with no stop for now.
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