Yesterday, was an ugly session for U.S. Equity Markets as the NASDAQ 100 led the decline with a loss of 3%. This move lower saw the VIX explode by 16%. The White House claimed Russia was not removing military units from the Ukraine border but instead had sent an additional 7,000 troops, while President Joe Biden again warned that Russia could invade any day. This renewed concerns that the energy supply in Europe could be disrupted, pushing prices higher (and making inflation worse). Yesterday’s sell-off pushed the S&P 500 Index back below its 200-day moving average. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard was out spooking markets again. During a speech at Columbia University, he warned that inflation could get out of control quickly if the central bank did not act soon. Remember, he had called for 1% in rate hikes by July. While he did not say anything new, Bullard kept his hawkish stance, which was not what investors wanted to hear. In the S&P 500, the declines far outnumbered the advances. Nvidia (NVDA) was the big drag on semiconductors – and tech stocks – after warnings that margins may come in below expectations in the current quarter. On the positive side, Walmart (WMT) boosted the staples sector on a strong fourth-quarter report. Within the S&P 500, nine of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed mixed. European new Car Sales fell for the seventh straight month, as supply shortages continued to hurt vehicle production. European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said Interest Rate increases are likely to be data-dependent, but he anticipates the first one in 2022. In Asia, China’s overnight bank lending rates dropped as the government and central bank are expected to increasingly coordinate policy supportive of growth. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it is prepared to conduct more bond purchases to keep yields within the central bank’s target range. People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said the country will work more closely with neighbouring countries to promote more use of the Yuan over the U.S. Dollar. Taiwan’s government plans to revise the National Security Act by introducing severe penalties for economic espionage to stop technology leaks to China. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2.21% on reports of a potential Iranian nuclear deal indicated that the country could soon add supply to the crude market, while Gold jumped a further 1.58% as Russia-Ukraine tensions spurred increased demand for haven assets.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 310 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4089 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.12% lower at a price of 4380.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 622 points lower for a 1.78% loss at a price of 34,312.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.96% lower at a price of 14,171.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.83% lower at a price of 27,232.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1358.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.3616.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.4%, closing at $114.93.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 0.23%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed six basis points lower at 1.47%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points lower at 1.96%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.21% lower at $89.60 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.58% higher at $1,897.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Retail Sales at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone Construction Output at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Existing Home Sales and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Finally, at 4.00 pm we have the Fed Monetary Policy Report.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 4442 buy level before rallying to my 4458 T/P level as yet again ‘’buying the dip’’ pays dividends, with a not too aggressive profit target. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again which I did at an average price of 4420 before thankfully exiting this position for a small gain at 4425 and I am still flat. The S&P got hit hard after this, falling 50 Handles into the close and in the process closed below the key 4415/4435 previous support area. This level will now act as resistance and I will be a small seller on any rally to this range with a 4451 stop. The S&P has support from 4325/4345 where I will be a buyer with no stop for now.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am not going to chase the Euro lower, leaving my 1.1420/1.1470 sell level unchanged with the same tight 1.1505 stop. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar has resistance from 96.10/96.60 where I will again be a seller with a tight 97.05 stop.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market hitting my 15260 buy level before rallying over 100 points, enabling me to cover this position at my 15320 T/P level and I am still flat The DAX has support below here from 14900/14980 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a wider 14795 stop.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded the whole of yesterday’s buy range and I am now long at an average rate of 7525 with a now lower 7550 T/P level. I will now lower my stop to 7395 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully, we had no buy level in yesterday’s commentary as the Dow got hit hard, closing over 600 points lower and I am still flat. The Dow has support from 33900/34100 where I will be a small buyer with a 33750 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX led yesterday’s session lower, falling 3% and in the process trading the whole of my buy range for a now 14360 average long position. I am still long with no stop. I will now lower my T/P level to 14410 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
No Change. I am still flat, looking to buy the market on any dip lower to 164.30/164.80 with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 165.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has now rallied over $100 in the past 10 days, hitting a price of $1900 on inflation and political risks. I will now raise my buy level to 1855/1870 with a wider 1839 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
The rally in Gold saw my 23.70 T/P level triggered on my 23.30 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 23.00/23.60 with no stop.
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