U.S. Equity Markets surged yesterday believing that all the bad news is now priced into the market. The NASDAQ 100 led the gains, closing higher by 2.10%, helping the VIX to close below 20 with a loss of 7%. The 100-day moving average (around 4,571) has been a battleground over the past few days, as bears have pushed the S&P 500 Index lower every time it begins to make a charge at the resistance level. Yesterday, bulls took over – the Index blew through that level early in the afternoon and held above for the rest of the day. The next key level is the 50-DMA, sitting at around 4,611. There were not many catalysts, with the release of January’s inflation data where a worse-than-expected reading could spark fears that the Federal Reserve would then have to act aggressively to tame inflation. But Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic tried to assuage these concerns, saying he sees three to four rate hikes this year. That is below the consensus of five, and Bank of America’s prediction of as many as seven. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she sees inflation easing later this year, which would mean the Fed does not have to act as aggressively. Tech shares were back on track, as Bond Yields backed off (implying lower borrowing costs). Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (FB), and Nvidia (NVDA) all tacked on big gains. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) surged higher on strong earnings reports. To the downside, CVS Health (CVS) lagged markets as its 2022 earnings forecast came in below estimates. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. German Export data for December unexpectedly gained as shipments within the European Union increased. European Central Bank (“ECB”) Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said stock market investors may be overreacting to recent interest rate hike speculation. Germany’s Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said he would push for ECB policy normalisation if inflation did not show signs of easing by March. In Asia, Bank of Japan board member Toyoaki Nakamura said an increase in economic activity is evident but it will continue with easy-money policies until inflation hits 2%. The People’s Bank of China said loans to fund low-cost rental projects would no longer be subject to regulatory limits, in an attempt to stabilise the property market. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said the government plans to hold a meeting on Thursday to discuss potential actions to curb rising oil prices. Australian Consumer Confidence figures for February declined compared with January on increasing inflation concerns, falling to a 17-month low. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.78%, while Gold rose 0.41% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2475th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 195 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2195 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.45% higher at a price of 4587.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 306 points higher for a 0.86% gain at a price of 35,768.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.10% higher at a price of 15,056.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.9% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.08% higher at a price of 27,579.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1433.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3532.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $115.61.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at 0.22%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed six basis points lower at 1.43%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.94%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.78% higher at $90.18 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.31% higher at $1,832.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CPI and PPI at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. CPI and the Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Finally, we the Monthly Budget Statement at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P has followed my game plan by having a nice rally into this afternoon’s CPI release. Just after the close the S&P hit my second sell level at 4590 for a 4583 average short position. As I go to press the S&P has had a small sell-off and I have now exited this short position here at 4573 as I want to be flat ahead of this afternoon’s CPI release. The S&P has strong resistance from 4595/4615 where I will again be a seller with a 4631 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4582.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.1400 long Euro position worked well with the market trading higher to my 1.1435 T/P level as mentioned in yesterday’s Daily Commentary and I am now flat. The Euro has support from 1.1350/1.1400 where I will again be a buyer with a wider 1.1295 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No Change. I will continue to look to sell the market from 95.80/96.30 with the same 96.55 tight stop.
Cash DAX
The DAX soared yesterday, and I am still flat as thankfully we have had no sell level in this market over the past 10 days and are still flat. The DAX has resistance from 15700/15800 where I will be a small seller with a 15905 stop.
Cash FTSE
No Change. I will not chase the market higher leaving my 7490/7550 buy level unchanged with the same 7445 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow rallied to my initial 35800 sell level we saw a quick 100 point fall enabling me to cover this position at my revised 35740 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am still flat. The Dow has now rallied almost 3000 points off the January low despite 10-Year Yields trading near 2%. The last few weeks have again emphasised how difficult it is to be short the U.S. Equity Markets for any length of time as incredibly the Dow is trading close to all-time highs following this recent rally. Ahead of CPI, I will again look to sell the Dow from 36100/36300 with a 36455 stop. Meanwhile, I will now raise my buy level to 35300/3550 with a wider 35095 stop.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly, the NDX missed my buy level by 100 points before leading yesterday’s rally higher ending the day with a gain of 2%, closing above 15,000. The NDX has resistance from 15225/15325 where I will be a seller with a 15450 stop. Ahead of CPI, I do not want to be long the market at this time.
March BUND
No Change. I am still long at 166.26 with the same 166.50 T/P level. Given we are having a nice month of gains I do not mind holding this Bund position with no stop given how oversold Bond Markets are at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continued to consolidate above 1800 on little news and I am still flat. Today, I will leave my 1795/1809 buy level unchanged with the same tight 1783 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1817.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 22.30/22.90 with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.35.
Recent Comments