Awful earnings from Facebook saw the NASDAQ 100 lead U.S. Equity Markets lower yesterday, as the NDX closed in the red by a whopping 4.22%. However, much better earnings from Amazon after the close sees the NDX Futures trading higher by over 300 points as I go to press. Over the past few days, positive earnings reports from Big Tech companies boosted markets. Yesterday, the opposite was true. Meta Platforms missed on both earnings and revenue, and its guidance fell short of expectations as well. Throughout the day, the stock lost more than $200 billion in market cap, larger than more than 400 companies in the S&P 500. Since FB has a 2% weighting in the S&P 500, the sharp decline weighed heavily on broader markets. Meta’s results also furthered the fears of slowing growth in the tech sector, making the sell-off in tech stocks worse. In terms of economic data, Weekly Jobless Claims came in below estimates. But the important job market data comes out this afternoon – with the release of non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate for January. Given the weakness in the ADP report, there is a risk the official payroll report could disappoint as well. In the S&P 500, Meta Platforms was the big decliner – falling more than 20%. Biogen (BIIB), Spotify Technology (SPOT), and Eli Lilly (LLY) all fell on earnings reports. Earnings season was kinder to Hershey (HSY), which rose after it was able to grow sales while also increasing prices. Within the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% and decided to begin shrinking its balance sheet while saying further tightening lies ahead. And the European Central Bank’s Governing Council noted yesterday afternoon that inflation risks are tilted to the upside. The ECB believes there is potential for higher prices to remain sustainable. The implication is it may have to raise interest rates sooner than its previous guidance for early 2023. Elsewhere, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to meet with President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict. In Asia, Markit Japan’s final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) figures for January rose from the initial reading, yet remained in contraction territory as services activity weighed. Market South Korea’s Manufacturing PMI numbers for January rose from December, hitting the highest level since July, as new orders and output rebounded. National Australia Bank’s fourth-quarter business confidence survey rose back into positive territory as companies were increasingly optimistic about demand, employment, and profitability. Equity markets remained closed in China and Taiwan for the Lunar New Year holiday. Elsewhere, Oil jumped 2.08% with West Texas Intermediate crude rising above $90 a barrel for the first time since 2014, while Bitcoin fell 4% along with tech stocks.
To mark my 2475th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 250 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1115 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.44% lower at a price of 4477.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 518 points lower for a 1.45% loss at a price of 35,111.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 4.22% lower at a price of 14,501.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.5% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.06% lower at a price of 27,241.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% lower.
The Euro closed 1.1% higher at $1.1430.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.3596.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5%, closing at $114.96.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 19 basis points higher at 0.15%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points higher at 1.37%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed six basis points higher at 1.83%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.08% higher at $90.15 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.24% lower at $1,799.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Factory Orders at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. Finally, we have U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls including the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings at 1.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market selling off to my 4516 buy level before rallying to my 4533 T/P level and I am now flat. Yesterday saw incredible two-way volatility with the S&P hitting a low at 4471 shortly before the close before rallying on Amazon to sit higher at 4530 as I go to press. This week we are seeing plenty of unfilled gaps and this is adding to the volatility. The S&P has resistance from 4560/4578 where I will be a small seller with a 4593 stop. We have support from 4453/4478 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 4438 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4492. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4547.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.1270 buy level before rallying over 170 points, enabling me to cover this position too early at my 1.1305 T/P level and I am now flat. This was the biggest intra-day movement in the Euro in six months. The Euro has now broken out to the upside and as long as we close above 1.1380 this evening I will be a buyer of dips. Today, my buy level will be from 1.1320/1.1370 with a 1.1259 tight stop.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar again missed my sell level before falling 0.9% and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 95.70/96.20 with a 96.55 tight stop.
Cash DAX
The DAX again missed my sell level before falling 350 points and I am still flat. The DAX has strong support from 15180/15250 where I will be a small buyer with a 15115 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15305.
Cash FTSE
No Change. We have resistance from 7650/7710 where I will be a seller with a 7755 stop. Despite the Bank of England raising rates by 0.25%, the FTSE held in well.
Dow Rolling Contract
My latest 35590 short Dow position worked well with the market closing 500 points lower, allowing me to cover this short position at my 35450 T/P level and I am still flat. The Dow has strong support from 33850/34050 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 33695 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX ended yesterday with of its largest Daily falls on record, closing lower by 4.22%. This move lower saw my 14722 second buy level executed for a now 14787 average long position. The NDX hit a low of 14471 before the close but as I had no stop I was still able to retain this position. After the close Amazon surprised with its earnings (Stock is now up 17% in after hours trading) and as I go to press the NDX is trading higher at 14785. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 14820 and if this is filled I will come back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
My Bund plan did not work well as Bund Yields rose a huge 19 basis points yesterday, to close positive at +15 Basis Points. This is a massive move and will not please the ECB who own nearly the whole Bund Market. I went long at 167.80 before getting stopped at 166.95. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the Bund again at 167.03. I am still long with a T/P level at 167.45. I will have no stop and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold just missed my 1780 buy level before having a small rally into the close and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 1765/1780 with the same 1749 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1788.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at 22.65 with a now lower 22.95 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 21.80 with no stop for now. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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