Opinion – Friday 17 November 2017

For all the talk of an emerging bear market in equities of late, and for whatever reason, European and US equities have reversed in size which started shortly after I posted early yesterday morning, led by tech stocks. After testing three month highs, the VIX index is...

Opinion – 16 November 2017

The mild risk off tone continued yesterday with both equities lower (S&P500 -0.4%, Euro Stoxx -0.3%), and Bond Yields lower (USTs -3.9bps, Bunds -21bps), while the VIX crept higher but is still at a low 12.91. Economic data certainly does not support the risk off...

Opinion – Wednesday 15 November 2017

Caution remains the main theme in markets with equities softer on both sides of the Atlantic weighed down by the energy and materials sectors amid softer oil and metal prices. Ahead of US CPI this afternoon the US Dollar and longer dated US Treasury yields are lower...

Opinion – Tuesday 14 November 2017

Frankfurt is the town and the great and the good of the global central banking fraternity will be the doing the talking later today at an ECB sponsored conference on Central Bank Communication. Yellen, Draghi, Carney and Kuroda are among those scheduled to talk. The...

Opinion – Monday 13 November 2017

A somewhat bitty, non-descript market on Friday with asset markets not all marching to the same tune. The approach of Monday’s US Vets. Day holiday looks to have contributed to the malaise. The main feature was US Treasury yields pushing higher, back testing 2.40%....

Opinion – Friday 10 November 2017

Equity markets hit a jittery patch shortly after I posted early yesterday morning, with selling seen across Europe and the US. The US Dollar is as expected softer across the board with safe haven currencies the outperformers. Notably, however, core global Bond Yields...

Opinion Thursday 9 November 2017

The RBNZ after the New York markets closed, left Interest Rates on hold at 1.75% but the language has spurred some Kiwi buying. Despite policy remaining “accommodative for a considerable period”, the RBNZ has brought forward the first expected tightening, increased...

Opinion – Wednesday 8 November 2017

It has been a very quiet past 24 hours for markets, the DXY and BBDXY making some net gains, but more from commodity currency weakness. The CAD, the NZD, and the AUD all lower by 0.25-0.35%. Oil prices have taken a small breather after the heady gains of late, the...

Opinion – Tuesday 7 November 2017

The oil price was the biggest mover over the past 24 hours, hitting a two year high (Brent +3.2% to $64.08 and WTI +3.0% to $57.30) driven by political uncertainty in Saudi Arabia. The move higher in oil supported commodity currencies (Aussie and Krone +0.4%; Canadian...

Opinion – Monday 6 November 2017

Both the US Dollar and US equities ended the week on a positive note, but a mixed US labour market report reinforced the flattening theme in the US Treasury curve. A December Fed hike remains well priced (92%), but question marks continue to linger on the inflation...

Opinion – Friday 3 November 2017

Late in the New York trading session, President Trump has announced that Jerome Powell will be the next Chair of the Fed, as has been widely flagged in recent days. So no surprises there. He is seen as very much the continuity candidate, he has not dissented in his...

Opinion – Wednesday 1 November 2017

The news on the state of the US and European economies has been good over the past 24 hours, adding more sunshine to the global growth acceleration story. It has also been a day of contained currency moves, the USD still waiting for substantial news on tax reform and...

Opinion – Tuesday 31 October 2017

Well, the big theme from yesterday’s trading overnight session was the news that President Trump’s Corporate Tax Cut plan from 35% to 20% could be phased in over 5 years. The US Dollar and US Treasury Yields were already drifting lower during the Asian session...

Opinion – Friday 27 October 2017

To borrow from Depache Mode, it seems markets Just Can’t Get Enough with a dovish ECB taper and increasing confidence in US tax reform seeing a rally in risk assets. European equities soared (Eurostoxx +1.3%), the Euro fell sharply (-1.2%), while US Dollar strength...