Opinion – Thursday 18 January 2018

The Bank of Canada delivered on an almost universal expectation for a 25-point rate hike yesterday afternoon. While saying it would adopt a cautious approach to further tightening in order not to choke off growth (and also citing NAFTA as one particular concern) Money...

Opinion – Wednesday 17 January 2018

Euro slippage was initially the main feature after I posted following a Der Spiegel report that the Berlin division of the SPD would reject the vote to form a grand coalition with Merkel’s party. Once investors noted that this division only casts 23 votes out of 600...

Opinion – Tuesday 16 January 2018

After I posted early yesterday morning we have seen the broader BBDXY Dollar Index join the narrow DXY by pushing (just) through its 2017 lows on a closing basis, to its weakest since the start of 2015. The US Martin Luther King holiday has evidently proved not to be...

Opinion – Monday 15 January 2018

Friday was a case of another day, another US Dollar slide (plus new record closing highs for the Dow, the S&P500 and NASDAQ, but that almost goes without saying these days). The week’s glamour stat., US December CPI showed core inflation rising at a higher than...

Opinion – Friday 12 January 2018

We had quite significant market moves across most asset classes since I posted early yesterday morning, this time led by Euro strength after ECB minutes signal change in communication in coming months, while Brent Crude tops $70 for first time since Dec 2014. The...

Opinion – Thursday 11 January 2018

The sell-off in US Treasuries and steepening of the curve that has been the focus of markets this week initially extended further after I posted yesterday morning, but has since retraced. The US 10y yield reached a high of 2.595% before moving back to 2.55%. The...

Opinion – Wednesday 10 January 2018

10 year US Treasury yields have broken through the 2.50% mark for the first time since mid-March aided by yesterday’s  Bank of Japan’s decision to trim its longer dated JGB buying strategy while bond issuance and a jump in energy prices have also been factors at play....

Opinion – Tuesday 9 January 2018

The US Dollar is now up on the year thanks largely to Euro weakness, the latter despite strong and better than expected Euro-Zone Confidence readings. Bonds essentially flat, UST 10s holding just beneath 2.5%; fresh highs for S&P and NASDAQ (but not the Dow) in...

Opinion – Monday 8 January 2018

A mixed US labour report and a softish ISM Non-Manufacturing print had minimal impact on the US Dollar and US Treasury yields while global equities have continued on their merry way higher amid a supportive global economic backdrop. Strong Canadian Jobs were the big...

Opinion – Friday 5 January 2018

Positive economic data releases yesterday have helped reinforce the view that the ongoing broad based global economic recovery still has a lot of legs. US equities are again making new highs and barring Mexico (MEXBOL Index) all other major equity indices have closed...

Opinion – Thursday 4 January 2018

The tepid US Dollar resurgence that started late on Tuesday night  continued yesterday with a strong ISM manufacturing print and Fed Minutes with a hawkish tinge only having a subdued positive impact. The US Treasury curve has ended the day flatter and US Equities had...

Opinion – Wednesday 3 January 2018

US equities have started 2018 on a positive note with technology shares leading the way. Core global Bond Yields are higher with 10y UST up 5.8bps to 2.457% and the US Dollar has started the new year in the same way it ended 2017, weaker across the board. The NASDAQ...

Opinion – Tuesday 2 January 2018

The final trading day of 2017 featured similar themes to the preceding week. Year-end flows and lower liquidity remained a key feature of markets. US equity Indices fell around 0.5% on Friday, with all major sectors in the red. The S&P ended the last trading...

Opinion – Friday 29 December 2017

Seasonally light liquidity and end of year rebalancing flows continue to dominate price action. The USD index has slipped 0.2% and gains by G10 peers are broad-based, with the Swiss Franc, EUR and Canadian Dollar the top performers. The EUR/USD (+0.5% to 1.1946)...