Opinion – Friday 15 March 2019

A quiet past 24 hours, all things Sterling included even though we now have at least some idea of ‘’what happens next’’ on Brexit. Risk sentiment has been (very marginally) impaired from reports that a Trump-Xi meeting is looking unlikely before late April at the...

Opinion – Thursday 14 March 2019

The UK parliament has voted by just four votes – to support the so-called Speldman amendment which rejects a ‘’no deal’’ Brexit in clearer terms than the Prime Minister’s own motion. Yet the Prime Minister’s own motion rejecting leaving without a deal has also...

Opinion – Wednesday 13 March 2019

Brexit has continued to dominate the markets’ attention in the past 24 hours, with a new deal yesterday then the vote on that deal in the House of Commons last night. A vote on the revised further 11th hour deal nutted out between Prime Minister May and Juncker has...

Opinion – Tuesday 12 March 2019

It has been a risk on past 24 hours with US equities leading the gains within developed markets.  A better than expected January US Retail Sales print has been one supporting factor despite downward revisions to what was already a soft December number. The US Dollar...

Opinion – Monday 11 March 2019

Friday saw a quite a quite shocking miss on US Non-Farm Payrolls of just +20k, but the number needed to be seen in context of an exceptional January print (revised up to 311k) and weather-related hits to the likes of the construction sector (e.g. the Household Survey,...

Opinion – Friday 8 March 2019

While the market was expecting something from the ECB, some combination of a possible new TLTRO (maybe that could come later), a possible change in rates forward guidance, and some revision to growth and inflation forecasts, it served up all three with gusto. The read...

Opinion – Thursday 7 March 2019

The cautious mood evident since the start of the new month continued yesterday and again overnight not helped by softer US data releases. US equities closed  lower for a third consecutive day while US Treasury yields are lower across the curve with the 10y tenor back...

Opinion – Wednesday 6 March 2019

Not a huge amount of price action across currencies, equities or bonds over the past 24 hours with most price movement such as there is consistent with the significantly better than expected Non-Manufacturing ISM release. Together with stronger than expected New Home...

Opinion – Tuesday 5 March 2019

After a quiet February, Volatility picked up in the US stock market with the Indices reversing all of Friday’s gains and then some, the S&P and NASDAQ closing down 0.4% and the Dow by 0.8% (albeit losses for the former were closer to 1% at 5.00 pm). Friday’s...

Opinion – Monday 4 March 2019

Softer US data releases had a short – lived downward impact on US equities, US Treasury yields and the USD, with all three asset classes closing higher on Friday. It was a good day for risk assets with all major equity indices closing higher. The USD was broadly...

Opinion – Friday 1 March 2019

Equity Markets have rebounded this morning despite the evident failure of The Trump-Kim bromance and the US President’s previous declaration that he had fallen in love with the North Korean dictator, to yield progress in the US’s efforts to get N. Korea to...

Opinion – Thursday 28 February 2019

Risk assets remain in a cautious mood not helped by an escalation in tension between India and Pakistan while overnight US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, tempered expectations of an imminent US-China trade deal following earlier suggestion by President Trump...

Opinion – Wednesday 27 February 2019

The only price action of particular note since I posted yesterday morning has been in Sterling, which jumped by over a cent against the US dollar after UK Prime Minister May told parliament that if they rejected her Withdrawal Agreement on March 12th, they would in...

Opinion – Tuesday 26 February 2019

President Trump has stolen the show yet again with his tweeter account and commentary largely responsible for most of the main market moves over the past 24 hours. Major equity Indices have had a solid start to the new week after a twitter posting yesterday morning by...