Opinion – Friday 25 May 2018

Geopolitics is well and truly back with President Trump announcing yesterday afternoon that the proposed June 12 Summit in Singapore he was to have with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is off. Initial thoughts ran to Trump’s recent comments speaking aloud about the...

Opinion – Thursday 24 May 2018

The risk off tone that started just before I posted yesterday morning, amid a 3% drop in the Turkish Lira and stalling news on US-China trade talks, extended into the European session courtesy of underwhelming PMI’s in the Euro-Zone and a soft CPI print in the UK....

Opinion – Wednesday 23 May 2018

There have been no major economic releases over the past 24 hours and the news has been more of another instalment of recent themes. China trade tension news was risk-supportive, China announcing a cut from July 1 of car tariffs from 25% to 15% and some car parts to...

Opinion – Tuesday 22 May 2018

On first impressions it has been a quiet risk positive past 24 hours in markets, US equities have closed higher, 10y US Treasury yields are little changed and the US Dollar is almost exactly where it was this time yesterday. However, there are a few themes simmering...

Opinion – Monday 21 May 2018

A ‘’risk-positive’’ start to the week is already in evidence via higher opening level of the US Futures Markets for both the Dow and S&P while the DAX is again trading at new all-time highs this morning. This follows the weekend news that the US has effectively...

Opinion – Friday 18 May 2018

Amid a range of uncertainties from Italian politics, North Korea’s tantrum, US-China trade talks, NAFTA, Brexit and ….let us not forget Iran, market moves over the past 24 hours have been relatively subdued reflecting a wait and see mode by investors. So with...

Opinion – Thursday 17 May 2018

Commodity currencies have all made a decent comeback since I posted yesterday morning despite a fairly mixed performance from commodity prices, albeit Brent crude has now topped $79 for the first time since November 2014. Euro weakness has much to do with it, linked...

Opinion – Wednesday 16 May 2018

Contrary to my expectations, the US Dollar roared higher after I posted yesterday morning with the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index closing higher by 0.61%, US 10y Treasury yields testing above 3.09% during the session just and still at 3.072% as I go to print. It was not...

Opinion – Tuesday 15 May 2018

Yesterday’s trading session was noticeable for its absence of any key Economic releases where a further lift in oil prices seems to have had the largest identifiable role in bond and equity markets. The US Dollar has regained a measure of support, though it has been...

Opinion – Monday 14 May 2018

We had a fairly subdued end to what has been a pretty eventful week characterised by additional oil market (and broader commodity price) strength linked to Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, a failure of US CPI inflation to accelerate, an...

Opinion – Friday 11 May 2018

The USD and Sterling are the both softer over the past 24 hours, after US core CPI surprised by 1/10% to the downside and the Bank of England shaved a 1/10% off its inflation forecasts and gave a nod the current market pricing that currently see no more than three...

Opinion – Thursday 10 May 2018

Price action over the past 24 hours has been all about the jump (+3%) in oil prices following yesterday the decision by President Trump to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal. 10y UST yields have climbed above 3% and US equities have rallied with gains led by...

Opinion – Wednesday 9 May 2018

Though markets were on tenterhooks yesterday awaiting President Trump’s decision on whether the US would pull out of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the decision to do so when it came ‘’ an immediate hard’’ exit and known a few hours before the formal 2pm Washington...

Opinion – Tuesday 8 May 2018

Last Friday we had a mixed US labour market report, but the decline in the Unemployment rate to 3.9% eventually lifted the US Dollar and shorter dated US Treasury yields. US-China trade talks ended with no progress and although the lack of resolution keeps the...