Markets were, once again, extremely volatile with earlier risk on sentiment faded by the U.S. close. Early upside was supported by commentary from US officials that many countries are looking for trade deals with the US, while Trump posted on Truth that China wants a deal, they just don’t know how to make one, noting “It will happen!”. However, after the US equity open sentiment soured as officials were clear that reciprocal tariffs are set to come into force overnight as planned. Meanwhile, the downbeat sentiment accelerated as it was reported that China has missed the deadline to avoid the additional tariffs which are set to go into force overnight. Note, US President Trump is reportedly yet to sign the additional tariff bill, however, via CNBC’s Javers, there will be no social media/live stream announcement of the signing- so we may have to wait and see it implemented on the federal register for confirmation after midnight tonight. With reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and additional tariffs on China set to come into force tonight, stocks ultimately closed heavily in the red with SPX closing sub-5k for the first time since April 2024. T-Notes were very choppy with the curve steepening with Treasuries largely tracking risk sentiment, but a soft 3 Year auction did add to pressure while post-settlement the steep equity slide also saw weakness in T-Notes. In FX, the Dollar was sold on economic fears while both the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed. Meanwhile both the Euro and Sterling traded sideways as the Australian Dollar again lagged although USD/CNH hit record highs on the aforementioned additional tariff implementation. Crude prices continued to be sold in risk-off trade. The White House Press Secretary announced additional tariffs on China will go into effect from the start (00:01) of April 9th with China set to face tariffs of 104% as they missed the deadline to remove their tit-for-tat 34% tariffs on the US. She also noted how reciprocal tariffs are also set to be implemented as planned. Many officials mentioned that around 70 countries have reached out to the US for trade talks, but USTR’s Greer noted how Trump has been clear that he will not do tariff exemptions in the near term. With reciprocal tariffs set to come into effect, and many countries reaching out for talks, the current lay of the land appears to be an implementation of the tariffs as planned and then negotiations will continue over the next several months – Treasury Secretary Bessent said it is going to be a busy April and May, and maybe into June. Note, US President Trump posted on Truth in the US morning (just before the open) that China wants to make a deal… they are awaiting their call and “It will happen!”. Although the focus has been on tariffs, it is worth stressing that officials continue to state that non-tariff barriers are also an issue. In regards to talks, US has noted they are prioritising Japan and South Korea in tariff talks. China strongly opposed 50% additional tariff and urged a resolution of disputes with the US via dialogues; China said it will take necessary measures, and notes if the US insists on waging a trade and tariff war, China will fight until the end. The EU said they will present a plan for tariff response early next week, noting they are ready to discuss and negotiate with US on energy, noting all instruments are on the table, including LNG. South Korea’s Acting President said they will not band together with China and Japan to counter US tariffs, noting they would like to negotiate with US President Trump. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.34% lower while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a small 0.7% gain following a volatile 24 hours.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1350 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2225 points for April after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.57% lower at a price of 4982.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 320 points lower for a 0.84% loss at a price of 37,645.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.95% lower at a price of 17,090.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.72% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 2.8% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 6.03% higher at a price of 33,012.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.34% lower.
The Euro closed 0.33% higher at $1.0948.
The British Pound closed 0.52% higher at 1.2792.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.9% closing at $146.45.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 2.61%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 4.62%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points higher at 4.26%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.34% lower at $59.28 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% higher at $2984.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. At 12.00 pm we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications, followed by Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a 10-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the FOMC Minutes from last Month’s Meeting at 7.00 pm. Meanwhile, Fed Member Barkin is speaking at 5.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
I have been trading stock markets for over 30 years and I have never ever seen the two-way volatility that we are witnessing now. Buying the dip on Monday proved to be the correct call. I checked my trade history yesterday for Monday’s trades. On it was a small buy in the S&P at 3.02 pm and exit for the same position at 3.17 pm resulting in a 301 Handle gain. As soon as I exited this position the S&P fell over 100 Handles in just five minutes which is insane. However, what ever volatility we witnessed on Monday, increased yesterday with the S&P now trading nearly 8% lower from Tuesday afternoon’s 5271 high print as the rug was again pulled from the market on the back of Trump going ahead with 104% Tariffs as of this morning. This is a disaster because if it goes through and stays in effect beyond this week we are likely to see a barrage of businesses in America going bust with cascading effects in jobs, bank loans etc, thus guaranteeing a recession. Trump is apparently waiting for a call from China but do not hold your breath. Putting some of these massive losses into $: Apple has shed $660 billion in just four trading sessions for a staggering 22% drop as trade wars ramp up. On the back of these staggering losses across the globe, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink (who manages the largest hedge fund in the world) said on Tuesday that we are already in a recession. However, with 14 Day RSI closing at 21 last night (and remember this is before the overnight sell-off) this market is ripe for a massive move higher that holds for more than a few minutes. The McClellan Oscillator is one signal that I play close attention to and have huge respect for closed at -255 last night. As I mentioned in Tuesday’s Daily Commentary any reading greater than -250 historically sees at least a 4% rally over the coming days. Yes, the MO may weaken to -300 first but the risk/reward is to be a buyer here. I was lucky yesterday as the ramp higher in the S&P yesterday afternoon saw my 5250 T/P level executed on my very aggressively long 5180 position. Thankfully I emailed my Platinum Members to stay flat and not be tempted to buy any dips as the VIX refused to trade lower despite the 4% rally in the market. As I go to press the S&P is now trading at 4895. I have bought the market here with no stop or T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 4830. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.0910 long Euro position worked well as the market rallied to my 1.0980 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0800/1.0880 with a lower 1.0725 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 1.0950. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 103.70/104.40 with the same 105.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 103.05.
Russell 2000
Once my S&P T/P level was triggered, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit their 1735 long Russell position at my revised 1865 T/P level. This morning, the Russell is trading lower at a price of 1725. The Russell is severely oversold and unloved as shown by the strong reversal from Tuesday’s high. As a result I have bought the market here at 1725. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 1655 with the same 1585 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 1810.
Cash FTSE
Just before the New York close, the FTSE reversed from an afternoon high of 7984 to hit my 7690-buy level. I am still long with a now lower 7780 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 7590 with a now lower and wider ‘Closing Stop’ at 7595. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wow! Having hit an afternoon high above 39400 the Dow sold off aggressively in the last few hours of trading. This move lower saw my 37230-buy level triggered before rallying to my revised 37680 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has strong support below from 36400/36800 where I will again be a buyer with no stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 37950. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change: I am still long the NDX at an average rate of 18560 with no stop. I will now have a T/P level at 18900 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Tuesday’s Three-Year Treasury Auction was dismal with the third widest ‘Tail’ in history. The two previous times were during COVID and during the 2023 Banking Crisis. Treasury yields have risen 40 basis points from last Friday’s 3.86 pre-NFP release on strong rumours that the Chinese are selling Treasuries in significant amounts. Meanwhile, the Bund continues to ignore the higher Treasury Yields for now. I am still flat the Bund as I continue to be a seller from 131.60/132.60 with ta higher 133.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 130.75. I still do not want to be long the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and happy to stay on the sidelines as I have no edge in Gold at this time. I much prefer to be a buyer of dips on Silver as in my opinion there is less risk. As an asset class, Silver is still cheap.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver as I continue to be a strong buyer on any further move lower to 28.10/29.10 with the same 26.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 30.30.
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