U.S. Equity Markets were choppy Tuesday with the S&P and NDX little changed whilst the Russell 2000 unwound some of its recent outperformance. The Indices hit their intraday peaks after the cash open, just on the heels of the dovish reaction seen in wake of the tumble in October JOLTS job openings, although the upside surprise in the ISM Services tempered those spirits. Treasuries bull-flattened with Global Bonds bouncing amid dovish central bank updates, with the momentum continuing after the US data. Long-end yields are making new post-Powell lows (30y at 4.30%) although the front-end is reluctant to follow suit, albeit is still bid on the day. The U.S. Dollar made strong gains, climbing higher through the session, with particular strength vs the AUD (and NZD in spillover) after the RBA left rates unchanged and with a statement less hawkish than expected; The Euro was also sold amid ECB’s Nagel saying the latest inflation data removes the need for further ECB hikes ahead of the meeting next Thursday (nearly 150bps of ECB rate cuts are now priced across 2024, with 130bps priced for the Fed). The Yuan was pressured amid Moody’s downgrading its outlook on China. Oil prices were choppy but lower again, with a recovery attempt on some jawboning from Russia’s Novak not enough to sustain any meaningful recovery amid the Dollar’s ascent. Gold prices continued to trundle lower after the spike to all-time highs earlier this week. Bitcoin continued to climb higher, hitting peaks above USD 44k, the highest since H1 2022. Elsewhere, oil fell 1.23% while Gold ended Tuesday with a 0.4% fall.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 205 points yesterday and is now down 75 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 4567.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 79 points lower for a 0.22% loss at a price of 36,124.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.24% higher at a price of 15,877.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.40% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.04% higher at a price of 33,445.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.32% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0795.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2595.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $147.15.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 10 basis points lower at 2.25%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points lower at 4.08%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 12 basis points lower 4.17%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.23% lower at $72.10 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% lower at $2019.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which fell 3.7% versus +0.2% expected. At 9.30 am we have U.K. Construction PMI followed by Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. Next, we have the Bank of England Minutes from last month’s Meeting. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and the ADP Employment Report at 1.15 pm. Finally, at 1.30 pm we have Unit Labour Costs and the Trade Balance.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P continues to trade in a narrow range. This has been the theme since November 21, with the S&P closing within a 30 Handle price range over the past two weeks. Still the S&P is severely overbought with little or no sell-off to speak of despite the $BPSPX RSI closing at 86 last night. Internally the market is weak as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed at +102 last night, down from Monday’s +182 print. Even with the number of negative divergences we still cannot get a tag of the 5 EMA. The recent 2% rally in the Dollar has not led to any S&P sell-off which is unusual. With Bond Yields continuing to tumble, the S&P is holding on to its recent 450 Handle rally with ease. This move higher has seen the most vertical flop ever in CTA positioning from record short positions in October to near an all-time bullish position now. With $NYSI maximum overbought for three straight weeks I just cannot justify a long position at this time. Yesterday after the S&P hit my 4572 sell level we had a small 12-Handle sell-off. This move lower enabled me to cover this position at my revised 4565 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has strong resistance from 4588/4605 where I will be a strong seller with a higher 4621 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the S&P at this time.
The strong Dollar saw the Euro trade lower to my second buy level at 1.0795 for a now 1.0830 average long position. I will leave my 1.0735 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 1.0875. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range after rallying a further 0.32%. This morning, the Dollar is trading at 103.95. We have strong resistance from 104.40/105.00 where I will be a seller with a 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will still be a buyer on any dip lower to 102.50/103.20 with the same 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
The DAX has now rallied over 12.5% since October 26th. Yesterday’s 0.7% rally saw the DAX close at a new all-time high at 16531. This move higher has me short near the close at 16530. With the 14-Day RSI closing at an absurd 81 last night, I will continue to look to add to this position at 16630 while leaving my 16705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 16560. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
No Change. I am still flat the FTSE as the market never came close to yesterday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 7555/7615 with a lower 7675 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still short from last Friday at a price of 36025.I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 36275 while leaving my 36505 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 35980. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My 15800 average long NDX position worked well as the market rallied to my 15860 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 15630/15780 with a lower 15495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
No Change. I am still short the Bund from early yesterday morning at a price of 134.52. I will continue to look to add to this position at 135.20 with the same 135.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Bond rally is now severely extended with yields at 2.25% versus the day-to day rate at 4.25/4.50%. There is a lot of good news now priced into the Bund in my opinion. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 134.00. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
After Gold hit my 2012 buy level we rallied to my revised 2019.50 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Gold has support below from 1990/2005 where I will again be a strong buyer with a lower 1979 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite Monday’s massive downside Key Day Reversal, I still do not want to be short Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
The weakness in Gold saw Silver hit my second buy level at 24.00 for a now 24.40 average long position. I will leave my 22.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 25.10. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members