U.S Equity Markets closed mixed, well off intra-day highs after a volatile two-way trading session. Despite the mixed finish, the VIX closed lower by 2.73% at a price of 17.46. Meanwhile Bond Yields slumped across the curve. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reportedly reached a tentative agreement late on Saturday to raise the U.S. government’s borrowing limit, effectively averting a potential default that could have had severe repercussions on the global economy. However, the deal still faces possible challenges in Congress, with members of both political parties expressing disapproval in certain aspects of the deal. With that said, the deal is on course to be voted on this week and is expected to pass. This week, investors are watching several key updates regarding the U.S. labour market. Many economists expect the cooling effect of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes will start to bleed into key labour market figures. This afternoon, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) will release the latest Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for April. It will provide insights into the number of job openings, hires, quits, and separations. Additionally, payroll provider ADP will issue its National Employment Report for May, focusing on private sector payrolls. This report will set the stage for the Labour Department’s May nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday. Economists anticipate a gain of only 180,000 jobs in May, which is fewer than the 253,000 jobs added in April. Unemployment is also predicted to see a slight increase to 3.5%, up from April’s 3.4%. European Markets closed lower. This week the Euro-Zone is set to release flash consumer price inflation data for May, which is expected to emphasise the significant challenges the European Central Bank (ECB) faces in its efforts to control price pressures. Currently, headline inflation in the Euro-Zone stands at 7% on a year-over-year basis, while underlying annual inflation is at 5.4%, both well above the ECB’s target of 2%. During its recent meeting earlier this month, the ECB reaffirmed its commitment to raising interest rates, acknowledging that more steps need to be taken to curb inflation. Furthermore, data released last Thursday revealed that Germany, the largest economy in the Euro-Zone, entered a recession in the first quarter due to the impact of high inflation on consumer spending. In Asia, China is scheduled to publish its official PMI data on Wednesday, followed by the private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI the next day. The manufacturing sector’s decline is predicted to ease slightly, while the service sector’s growth rate is expected to decelerate. Recent economic indicators have already hinted at a loss of momentum in China’s second-largest economy, attributed to weakening domestic and international demand. To promote a sustained economic recovery, the Chinese government has set a modest growth target of approximately 5% for this year. Premier Li Qiang recently pledged to implement targeted measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing external demand. Elsewhere, Oil fell 4.42% while despite a stronger Dollar Gold closed higher by 0.7%.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 265 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2857 points for May. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.0001% higher at a price of 4205.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 82 points lower for a 0.25% loss at a price of 33,010.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.40% higher at a price of 14.354.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.92% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.50% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.30% higher at a price of 31,328.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.20% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0725.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.2403.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.4% closing at $139.75.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points lower at 2.33%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 12 basis points lower at 4.22%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 10 basis points lower at 3.71%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.42% lower at $69.46 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.70% higher at $1960.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Import Price Index at 7.00 am and the Unemployment Rate at 8.55 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. At 1.00 pm we have German CPI and a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 1.30 pm. Next, we have the Chicago Fed Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm and the JOLTS Job Openings at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the Beige Book at 7.00 pm. Meanwhile, Fed Members Bowman, Harker and Jefferson are speaking at 1.50 pm, 5.30 pm and 6.30 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Separating hype from reality is always a thankless task as I have come to discover over the past 10 days. Despite the constant bullish declarations and breakout announcements. Reality remains very much subdued. The 14-Day RSI hit a high at 78 yesterday afternoon when the NDX hit a price of 14530 before falling 200 points into the close. However, despite the small intra-day reversal the RSI still closed at a severe overbought level of 75. The S&P has been caught in the middle of this aggressive tech rally and the underperformance of the Dow. Remember both the $NYSI and $BPSPX are maximum oversold making it a tricky market. My S&P plan worked well as the market hit my 4228-sell level with a 4234 high print before selling off over 30 Handles. This move lower enabled me to cover this position at 4218 and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 4220/4235 with a 4251 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my buy level to 4163/4178 with a lower 4149 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my second buy level at 1.0700 for a now 1.0735 average long position. I will leave my 1.0635 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 1.0785.
June Dollar Index
No Change. I am still short from Thursday at 104.05 sell level with the same 103.60 T/P level. I will add to this position at 104.65 while leaving my 105.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well. Yesterday the market traded higher to my 16060-sell level before falling 150 points. As I had enough open positions, I covered this short position too early at my revised 16025 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 16040/16140 with a lower 16205 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE got hit hard yesterday, hitting my 7530-buy level. I am still long and I will add to this position at 7450 with the same 7395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 7580. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 32910-buy level before rallying to my revised 33040 T/P level and I am now flat. Given how oversold the Dow is trading I will continue to be a buyer of dips. The Dow has short-term support from 32600/32850 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 32395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still short at 14400 with the same 14280 T/P level. I will continue to add to this short position at 14550 while leaving my 14705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
June BUND
Unfortunately, the Bund never came close to yesterday’s buy range before ending Tuesday with a gain of over 100 points. I will now raise my buy level to 134.50/134.30 with a higher 133.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Gold missed my buy level by $1 before rallying $30 into the New York close. I will now raise my buy level to 1929/1944 with a higher 1919 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 23.05 with no stop. I will leave my 23.70 T/P level unchanged for now. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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