U.S. stock markets fell amid a mixed bag of corporate earnings and growing speculation a trade deal with China remains elusive. Treasuries edged lower as the Federal Reserve began deliberating on the path for interest rates. The S&P 500 Index declined for a second day after President Donald Trump criticized China just as his negotiators start talks in Shanghai. Though, Trump boosted sentiment late in the session when he said he had recently spoken with his Chinese counterpart. Tech shares led losses. In earnings news, retailer Under Armour tumbled after warning about weak sales, while Procter & Gamble and Merck gained on strong results. The 10-year Treasury yield traded around 2.05% as investors awaited the Fed’s anticipated rate cut Wednesday. The US Dollar held near a two-month high, while the Pound continued its decline amid concerns about a no-deal Brexit. West Texas crude rose above $58 a barrel.
To mark my 1875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 57 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1073 points for July, having made 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
President Trump redirected investor angst toward tariffs on China, lashing out at the nation for continuing to “rip off” the U.S. The trade dispute ranks high among the reasons global growth has been flagging enough to prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts. Stocks rose to records just last week as corporate profits came in higher than expected and data showed steady economic growth. Trade is the big question mark, in my opinion. If the tensions were to worsen, if trade were to slow even more, I would think that that sharp manufacturing slowdown could easily become a manufacturing recession and if it were to spread to the services part of the global economy then it could easily induce a global recession. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% to close at 3013, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.1%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 1.5%, the biggest decline in three months and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index declined 0.5%.
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
The Euro gained 0.1% at $1.1152.
The British Pound decreased 0.4% to $1.2166, the weakest in more than two years.
The Japanese Yen increased 0.1% to 108.62 per dollar.
Investors have a lot to digest this week with trade talks, the Federal Reserve, corporate earnings and U.S. jobs data all on their plates. The Fed is widely anticipated to cut rates this evening. All eyes will then turn to Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference which will be scoured for clues on the policy path as signs of slowing growth put pressure on central banks around the world. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.06%. Meanwhile in Europe, Germany’s 10-year yield dipped one basis point to -0.40% and Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.64%, the lowest in about three years.
West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 2.4% to $58.24 a barrel, the highest in two weeks.
Gold rose 0.3% at $1,430.75 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales at 7.00 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone CPI, GDP and the Unemployment Rate. Next, we have the U.S. MBA Mortgage Application at 12.00 p.m. followed by the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 p.m. and the Chicago Purchasing Mangers’ Survey at 2.45 pm. Finally we have the FOMC Statement at 7.00 pm followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 7.30 pm. It promises to be an eventful trading session.
September S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for an average long position at 3008 before the market rallied to my revised 3013 T/P level and I am now flat. All eyes will be on the Fed this evening as they are expected to cut rates by 0.25%. However, the Statement release and Powell comments in his press conference will garner more attention especially in what he has to say as regards future cuts knowing that Trump is ready to hammer him if he is too stern. Internally the market is weak despite trading at all-time highs while despite the small sell-off yesterday in the S&P, the VIX rallied a further 8.5% to close at 13.98. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2997/3007 with a 2989 stop. I will also be a small seller on any further rally to 3030/3040 with a 3048 stop.
I am still flat the Euro and today I will leave my 1.1070/1.1110 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1045 tight stop.
September Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 98.10/98.50 with a 98.85 stop.
My DAX plan did not work well yesterday as the market got hit for 350 points following last Friday’s 250 point sell-off. I know most of you do not trade the DAX given its excessive volatility and unpredictability. This large sell-off saw the market hit my 12240 buy level before stopping me out of this position at 12165 and I am now flat. Given the expected volatility surrounding the Fed this evening I am going to stay flat the DAX until tomorrow as I do not have an edge in the DAX at this time.
My FTSE plan worked well with the market rallying to my 7660 sell level before selling off to my 7630 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the FTSE on any further rally to 7620/7670 with a 7705 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly the Dow just missed my 27050 buy level with a 27062 low print and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level slightly 26930/27080 with a 26845 stop.
I am still flat the NASDAQ and today I will continue to be a seller on rallies. Today my sell range will be from 8050/8110 with a 8155 stop.
No Change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 174.80/175.20 with the same 175.25 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Although Gold rallied to close at 1426 last night I am reluctant to chase this market higher as explained in yesterday’s commentary. Ahead of the Fed I will leave my 1397/1405 buy level unchanged with the same 1391 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as my only interest in buying Silver is still on a dip lower to 15.85/16.30 with a 15.55 stop.
My long 1.2222 Cable position did not work well as I was stopped out of this position at 1.2160. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to re-buy the market at 1.2140. I am still long with a 1.2050 stop and a lower 1.2210 T/P level.