U.S Equity Markets closed flat Tuesday in a choppy session with U.S. data largely ignored. Initial downside in the Indices in the NY morning was unwound later in the session, aided by Apple (AAPL) bouncing on reports it had abandoned its EV venture, shifting its attention to AI ventures. Treasuries saw mild bear-steepening despite a decent 7 year auction, a dip in Consumer Confidence, and a Boeing-led tumble in Durable Goods Orders. Fed Speak was expectedly familiar, with Bowman (voter) and Schmid (non-voter) cautioning on cutting rates too soon. The Dollar Index was flat with FX volumes again very muted. The Japanese Yen was only marginally firmer, with USD/JPY holding above 150, after the hotter-than-expected Japanese CPI, although wages remain the Bank of Japan’s key focus. Oil prices were firmer with reports OPEC is to extend its production cuts providing a rip higher, in addition to scepticism cast on a Gaza truce deal. January Durable Goods data was soft with the headline dipping 6.1%, deeper than the -4.5% forecast, while the prior was revised down to -0.3% from 0.0%. The sharp drop however was led by a fall in aircraft orders with ex-transport falling 0.3%, albeit still short of the +0.2% consensus while the prior was also revised down from +0.5% to -0.1%. Ex defense tumbled 7.3% with the prior revised down to +0.1% from +0.5%. The super core metric, the nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose by 0.1%, in line with expectations, but also with a notable revision lower to -0.6% from +0.2%. Overall, a soft report, where although weak aircraft orders led the downside with supercore in line with expectations, the revisions lower to the December report was soft. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that “The only input from the Durable Goods Report that enters into the national accounts is nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft, aka core capital goods shipments, which exclude civilian aircraft and autos”. Noting that Core Capital goods shipments rose 0.8% after rising slightly in December, however, they still think that business equipment investment will be fairly weak in Q1. The consultancy also writes that “the ongoing drop in business investment in autos probably means that overall business equipment investment is probably weaker than the real core capital goods shipments numbers suggest.” Consumer confidence in February fell to 106.7 from 110.9 (downwardly revised from 114.8) and beneath the expected 115.0. Present Situation and Expectations fell to 147.2 (prev. 154.9) and 79.8 (prev. 81.5), respectively, with the latter dipping back beneath 80 which often signals a recession ahead. Average 12-month inflation ticked lower to 5.2%, the lowest since March 2020, while on the jobs footing, those who thought jobs were plentiful dipped to 41.3% (prev. 42.7%) and those who thought jobs are hard rose to 13.5% (prev. 11.0%). On the headline, the decline interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy. Meanwhile, the report adds, “February’s write-in responses revealed that while overall inflation remained the main preoccupation of consumers, they are now a bit less concerned about food and gas prices, which have eased in recent months. But they are more concerned about the labour market situation and the U.S. political environment.” In addition, “assessments of the present situation weakened as consumers’ views of both business conditions and the employment situation became less favourable, while Consumer expectations for the next six months deteriorated, driven by renewed pessimism regarding future business and labour market conditions.” Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.66% while Gold again closed flat with a small 0.1% fall.

To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 1606 points for February after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification


The S&P 500 closed 0.17% higher at a price of 5078.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 96 points lower for a 0.25% loss at a price of 38,972.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.21% higher at a price of 17,971.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.18% higher.

Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.015% higher at a price of 39,239 – A New All-Time High.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.02% lower.

The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0844.

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2678.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $150.53.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.47%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 4.13%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.31%.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.66% higher at $78.87 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.1% lower at $2030.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence and the Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Next, we have Personal Income, GDP, Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Bostic, Collins and Williams at 5.00 pm, 5.15 pm and 5.30 pm respectively.

Cash S&P 500

For the second consecutive trading session volume was non-existent. The lack of volatility saw the VIX closed 2.25% lower at a price of 13.25. We apparently live in an age where there is no limit to asset-price-inflation despite Bitcoin hitting $57K yesterday for a $20K rise in a few weeks. I have no idea where this stops as markets remain untethered from any fundamental backdrop while shorts keep getting fried. The PE’s for both the S&P and NASDAQ are at an unbelievable 33. There is no end to printing of debt as Monday’s record February Bond Auction of $153bn in a single day attest to that. The S&P has left the most ‘’Open Gaps’’ on record and history tells us that all of these gaps get filled, the only question is from where it starts. As I mentioned yesterday, the rise in Bond Yields has been ignored. It may take a break of 4.5% in the 10-year to matter. I am still flat the S&P. Ahead of this afternoon’s key economic data, I will now raise my sell level to 5092/5106 with a higher 5121 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support below from 5020/5038 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 5007 ‘’Closing Stop’’.


No Change. I am still flat the Euro as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0700/1.0770 with the same 1.0635 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to chase the Euro higher at this time.

Dollar Index

No Change. I am still flat the Dollar. I will continue to be a seller from 104.35/105.05 with the same 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.

Cash DAX

I have no interest in chasing the DAX higher as this market has become untradeable based on any fundamentals. Germany is in recession and the DAX closes at yet another new all-time high. I keep saying ‘’nothing matters’’ which is certainly the case with the DAX as the market makes one new high after another every week.  I just cannot be a buyer of the DAX at these levels while the price action is telling you not to be short. I am going to stay flat the DAX until I get a better edge. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.


I am still flat the FTSE. With Gilt Yields rising again yesterday, I will leave my FTSE buy level unchanged at 7560/7630 with the same 7495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7675. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still flat the Dow. I will leave my 38450/38700 buy level unchanged with the same 38295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash NASDAQ 100

I am seeing plenty of negative divergences in the NDX. With four stocks accounting for a gain of $1.5 trillion year-to-date while the other 96 stocks have only seen a gain of $75bn in 2024 you know we are in the most bifurcated market of all-time.  Ahead of today’s data, I will now raise my NDX sell level slightly to 18040/18190 with a higher and wider 18305 ‘’ Closing Stop’’. Given the number of negative divergences, I have no interest in being long the NDX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

March BUND

No Change. I am still long the Bund from Monday at a price of 132.65. I will add to this position at 131.95 with a now lower 131.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 132.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

I am still flat. Gold traded in a $11 range yesterday making it difficult to make points. As I am still long Silver, I will not chase the price of Gold higher. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1995/2010 with the same 1979 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2018.

Silver Rolling Contract

I have never seen such little volatility in Silver over the past 12 months. It is as if nobody is trading this key commodity anymore. While Gold has had the odd spike, Silver continues to trade in narrow ranges every day. I am sticking to my guns in believing that Silver will at some stage break higher. I have a lot of my pension tied up in Silver and will continue to hold this position. I am still long Silver from six weeks ago at a price of 24.40. I will continue to look to add to this position at 21.50 with the same ‘’No Stop’’ or T/P level for now. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.