Price action in stocks was mixed, with large caps outperforming, driven by strength in Communications and particularly Utilities, while Materials and Energy lagged. Meanwhile, small caps, RUT -0.8%, were hurt by a higher US yield environment in response to resumed chatter on US tariffs from President-elect Trump on all products from Canada, Mexico and China. Highlights in the equity space include Amgen’s (AMGN, -4.8%) Maritide study falling short of expectations and Wells Fargo’s (WFC, +0.6%) asset cap likely to be lifted in H1 25, after being implemented due to the fake accounts scandal. That said, drivers for the equity space were fairly sparse, with newsflow-driven moves occurring elsewhere. As previously mentioned, yields bounced off weekly lows on the tariff news; note, little reaction was seen to the strong 5-year note auction. Elsewhere, crude had a choppy session but ultimately settled lower following the Israeli Cabinet approval of the ceasefire deal with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is set to begin in the early hours of November 27th. Earlier peaks in the crude complex came from reports that OPEC+ is reportedly beginning talks on delaying an oil product restart again, yet the upside eventually pared. In FX, the Japanese Yen’s outperformance followed a hotter-than-expected Japanese PPI report, helping the case for the Bank of Japan to resume normalisation. As such, JPY’s upside was enough to offset the high-beta FX weakness (MXN, CAD, and Antipodes hit, while GBP and EUR saw lesser downside) resulting in the Dollar Index falling below the 107 handle before a series of US data on Wednesday. US data on Tuesday had little sway over markets, where FOMC Minutes offered little insight into the direction of the FFR at the December meeting. Moreover, US Consumer Confidence rose above expectations on labour market optimism, while New Home Sales dropped below forecasts. Looking ahead, Wednesday will see PCE (Oct), Initial Claims, GDP 2nd Est (Q3), and Durable Goods (Oct) ahead. Minutes of the FOMC’s November 7th meeting, where the central bank slowed the pace of rate cuts to a 25bps increment, stated that participants emphasised gradual easing towards a neutral stance due to uncertainty about the neutral rate. While some suggested holding restrictive rates if inflation remains high, others proposed accelerated easing if the labour market or economic activity weakens. Most agreed risks to price stability and maximum employment were balanced. Participants noted that inflation has eased substantially from its peak, though core inflation remains elevated. Most believe data supports inflation returning to 2%, with disinflation observed broadly. A few noted the process could take longer than expected. Many observed diminished risks of excessive cooling in the jobs market compared to September. Analysts said the minutes provide limited clarity on whether a 25bps rate cut or a pause will be seen at the Fed’s December meeting; much will depend on the upcoming employment and CPI data. The minutes said that some participants felt that the Fed should pause easing if inflation remains elevated, while others suggested easing could accelerate if labour or economic conditions deteriorate, though employment and growth risks had diminished. October’s inflation data was slightly higher, and payrolls were weak; the Minutes suggested that most participants saw employment and inflation risks as balanced. In wake of the release, markets were ultimately little changed; money markets are currently discounting around 58% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the December meeting. U.S. Consumer Confidence rose to 111.7 (exp. 111.3) from the upwardly revised prior of 109.6, supported by continued labour market optimism. In the report, the Present Situation Index increased by 4.8 points to 140.9, highlighted by a downturn in consumers who said business goods were “bad” while the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve rose in November, supporting the Expectations Index’s 0.4 points move higher to 82.3. On the report, Chief Economist Peterson at the Conference Board said “Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, consumers’ expectations about future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly less positive about future income.” OxfordEco notes the outcome of the election did not sway headline consumer confidence, and while a labour market differential still indicates that the unemployment rate will stay above 4% in the near term, the details do not signal a rise in permanent layoffs.; “This bodes well for our outlook that consumer spending growth will remain solid in the coming year.” Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.54% while Gold was quiet following a quiet trading session.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 185 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2851 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.57% higher at a price of 6021.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points higher for a 0.28% gain at a price of 44,860.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.57% higher at a price of 20,922.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.57% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.87% lower at a price of 38,442.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.16% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.0472.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2546.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.7% closing at $153.13.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower 2.19%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 4.35%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.30%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.54% lower at $68.53 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.23% higher at $2631 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence at 9.30 am, followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Next, we have Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income/Spending and Wholesale Inventories at 1.30 pm. This is followed by the latest Chicago PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well but again if you to be quick to take gains especially on any short position. After the S&P hit my 6007 sell level, we sold off to an afternoon low at 5992. This move lower saw my revised 5995 T/P level triggered as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The market ignored the Trump Tariff rant closing at new highs. The highs for both the S&P and Dow came against a backdrop of negative divergences. The latest Goldman Sachs Sentiment Indicator was released yesterday. It is showing a reading of 2.3. Any reading over +1 is regarded as stretched per their model meaning this print is off the charts. No matter has Goldman Sachs has a target level of 6200 for year end. If you back to last January, they had a target level of 4850 again proving that these year-end forecasts are meaningless. As I mentioned in yesterday’s DC optimism is as high as it has ever been in history. Nobody knows when this bubble bursts but rest assure it will. Any long position that I take now will have tight stops as this market can roll over at any minute. Strong seasonality ends next week which may see a badly need retracement but against this the $NYSI Stochastic is oversold which makes it tricky to be short. The S&P is trading at 6021 as I go to press. We have short-term resistance from 6038/6054 where I will again be a seller with a higher 6073 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5930/5946. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 5915 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
My Dollar Index worked we as shortly after I posted the Dollar rallied to my 107.40 sell level before trading lower to my 106.75 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Dollar is trading at 107.00. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 107.30/108.10 with the same 108.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 106.80.
Cash DAX
The DAX continues to be bought on any sell-off. Given the economic background I find it very hard to be a buyer of this market. However, as long as the 18900 now shot-term support holds I will be a small buyer of dips conscious that a sell-off can materialise at any stage. Today, I will raise my buy level slightly to 19080/19180 with a wider 18895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 19260.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE just missed my 8230-buy level by a few points before rallying back above 8300. Even though the FTSE is short-term overbought I would not be short. I will now raise my FTSE buy level to 8170/8240 with the same 8095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the FTSE been short-term overbought I have no interest in selling the market at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8290.
Dow Rolling Contract
The appetite to buy any dip on the Dow shows no sign of ending anytime soon. Having hit an afternoon high above 44850 the Dow promptly fell 400 points in a straight line before regaining all of these lost points into the close and in the process record a new record high close. The seasonals change next week for a few days ahead of the expected Santa rally. Today, I will continue to be a small seller from 45100/45400 with a 44605 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 43670/43920 with the same 43495 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Remember given how overbought this market is with a Market Cap to GDP above 207% can break at anytime thus my low buy level in the Dow for today.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX made a low at 20680 shortly after I posted earlier this morning before rallying to close above 20900. Although the NDX continues to underperform both the S&P and Dow it now less than 1.50% from new all-time highs. The NDX has resistance from 21230/21380 where I will be a seller with a 21505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 20500/20650 with the same 20395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 21080. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20780. If these view change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund made a new recovery high at 134.00 this morning and I am still flat. With Yields falling a further 2 basis points to 2.19% there is no reward in buying Bunds at these levels in my opinion. Ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving Holiday I will now raise my Bund sell level to 134.60/135.30 while leaving my 136.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. Meanwhile, my only interest in buying the market is still on a dip lower to 131.50/132.20 with the same 130.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Following Monday’s 3.3% aggressive sell-off, Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. As I am still long Silver, I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 2575/2592 with the same 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2608.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 from two weeks ago with a now lower 29.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This morning Silver is trading lower at 30.52. I will now leave my T/P level unchanged at 32.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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