U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session lower, led by the 1.96% fall in the NASDAQ 100. This move lower saw the VIX close 5.7% higher. Markets fell Tuesday as Consumer Confidence in July dipped to its lowest level in 17 months. June New-Home sales slowed even further, nearing levels we last saw early in the pandemic. Walmart (WMT) cut its earnings guidance which sent retail stocks lower. Retail peer Shopify (SHOP) amplified recession worries as it announced plans to lay off 10% of its workforce. Heading into this evening, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, as investors anticipate a 0.75% interest-rate hike. Wall Street will look to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for future policy guidance as economic fears grow, leading into Thursday’s gross domestic product (“GDP”) reading for the second quarter. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. Recession risks are getting more attention after Russia announced a 20% reduction in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline’s capacity. To combat future supply shortages, the European Union agreed to cut natural gas usage among member nations heading into the winter. However, economic tension continues to mount in Ukraine as Russia persists with its missile strikes on the grain-rich region of Odesa – despite the two countries’ reported agreement to resume grain exports. The Bank of England is weighing its aggressiveness for next week’s rate hikes, as inflation and consumer spending power have hit record highs in the U.K. In Asia, markets closed mixed on Tuesday. China’s economy showed preliminary signs of strengthening in July as Business Confidence improved thanks to waning COVID-19 worries. South Korea reported higher-than-expected GDP for the second quarter, boosted by services and durables consumption. Japan cut its economic growth forecast for the year as global demand fell amid rising prices. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan reaffirmed its plan to maintain low-interest rates. Conversely, Australia is closely watching second-quarter Consumer Price Index figures expected to be released on Wednesday. Higher inflation could force the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates higher than the estimated 0.50% in August and September. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2% lower, while Gold closed flat.

To mark my 2600th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 166 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3875 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3371 points June, while making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

 

Equities

 

The S&P 500 closed 1.15% lower at a price of 3921.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points lower for a 0.71% loss at a price of 31,761.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.96% lower at a price of 12,086.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.1% lower.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.29% higher at a price of 27,736.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.6% higher.

The Euro closed 0.8% lower at $1.0133.

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2045.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $136.95.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 0.93%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 1.91%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 2.81%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2% lower at $96.90 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.13% lower at $1716.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GFK Consumer Confidence which fell 30.6 versus -28.9 expected. At 9.00 am we have Euro-Zone Money Supply, followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Next, we have the Trade Balance and Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm. At 3.00 pm we have Pending Home Sales. Finally, we have the FOMC Statement (where rates are expected to be increased between 50 and 75 basis points) at 7.00 pm, followed by the Powell Press Conference at 7.30 pm.

Cash S&P 500

Yesterday was all about earnings from Microsoft and Google. Rumors that earnings would be weak saw tech stocks get hit hard all day. Although, the results were weaker than expected, the NDX and S&P turned around overnight and are back trading at the levels I marked prices 24 hours ago. The late rally saw the S&P 50 Day Moving Average hold (3919) with the S&P now trading at 3955 as I go to press. The Fed has already hiked rates three times this year and is expected to hike rates by 75 basis points this evening. However, with the economy showing signs of a severe recession there are rumors that we may only see a 0.5% rate hike. We are now clearly in a stag-flationary environment as evident by the results from Walmart and several other retailers reporting.  With inflation at a 40-year high and food prices soaring, Americans are spending more on necessities. It is worth noting that everytime recession was mentioned in the past, the Fed immediately flip flopped, making today’s rate hike and especially Powell press conference so important. Yesterday, my S&P plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 3931 average long position before rallying overnight to my 3940 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has strong support at 3850 which must hold or else we could test the lows whole resistance comes in at last Friday’s 4012 high print. Today, I will be a buyer from 3890/3910 with a 3875 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 4000/4020 where I will be a small seller with a tight 4031 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

EUR/USD

The rally in the Dollar yesterday saw the Euro fall 0.7 %, hitting my 1.0150 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 1.0180 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position at 1.0090 while leaving my 1.0035 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

March Dollar Index

The Dollar rallied to my 107.00 sell level before having a small sell-off. As I am now long the Euro, I have exited this short Dollar position here at 106.80 and I am now flat. The Dollar has resistance from 107.40/108.00 where I will again be a seller with a higher 108.55 stop.

Cash DAX

Frustratingly, the DAX missed my 13020 buy level by 10 points before rallying to sit at 13165 as I go press and I am still flat. Yesterday, was the first session in a while where negative news for Germany got bought. I will now raise my DAX buy level to 12970/13050 with a wider 12895 stop.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE missed my 7370 sell level by 4 points before falling 90 points and I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase the FTSE lower, leaving my 7370/7430 sell level unchanged with the same 7475 tight stop.

Dow Rolling Contract

All eyes on the Fed this evening to see if the give any hint of pausing their rate hiking cycle. Ultimately, they have no choice and the market knows this as rate cuts are now priced in for Q1 2023. If markets are a forward discounting mechanism looking about 7-10 months ahead, then suddenly any hint of a pause this evening will see a vicious rally given how under owned Fund Managers are at this time. I am still flat the Dow and I will now raise my buy level to 31460/31710 while leaving my 31295 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. The ‘’Fear & Greed Index fell slightly again last night, closing at 35 which is still a reading of ‘’Fear’’. A 50 print is neutral and when this happens it should propel the Dow higher given the level of bearishness amongst traders and Fund Managers.

Cash NASDAQ 100

The NDX was weak yesterday as traders are nervous ahead of the sleuth of tech earnings this week. However, the NDX again held its 50-Day MA into the close before rallying overnight. If the NDX can build value above 12500 for a few days then it will only be a matter of time before we are trading with a 13 handle. The NDX has support from 11950/12120 where I will be a small buyer with a 11795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12300. lower Bond Yields should help the NDX and is the main reason that I continue to hold my 14327 long position from April. I will leave my exit level on this position unchanged at 12750. Given the points made this month, my plan is to try and be flat the NDX ahead of Friday’s Month-End. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

September BUND

The rally in the Bund shows no sign of ending with yields now at 0.92%. This is one of the fastest rallies in history making the ECB’s case of rising rates to combat inflation even more challenging. Yesterday’s move higher saw the whole of my sell level triggered for a now 155.85 average short position. Just as I am going to press the Bund has hit my 155.55 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 156.20/157.00 with a 157.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1689/1704 with a tight 1675 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

Silver had a small rally yesterday, allowing me to cover my latest 18.35 long position at my revised 18.61 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 17.50/18.10 with the same 16.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.