U.S. Equity Markets rebounded from Monday’s sell-off, finishing the day higher, led by the Dow which ended yesterday’s session with a gain of 1.62%, as yet again the McClellan Oscillator proved what a valuable technical signal it is. Markets bounced back strongly, as investors “bought the dip” after the S&P tested its 50 -Day Moving Average. There was not any standout catalyst, with much of the rally attributed to oversold conditions from the steep sell-off. In terms of economic data, Housing Starts accelerated and Building Permits slowed down to a several-month low. However, building permits remained near record highs. This data shows that the housing market continues to chug along at a solid pace. Meanwhile, the infrastructure deal between Democrats and Republicans remains rocky, as both parties continue to disagree over the allocation of funds. Senate Republicans said they are unwilling to throw support behind the bipartisan infrastructure bill if it is brought to the floor for a vote before it’s been drafted. European Markets closed mixed. The European Central Bank’s lending survey for June showed institutions borrowed more in the second quarter to invest back into their businesses. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann noted the country’s economic rebound is still fragile, adding that it is too soon to end support for the economy. Meanwhile, the German producer price index’s (“PPI”) June data was better than anticipated, but declined compared to May as a result of a slowdown in the rate gain in basic foods. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China maintained its one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates, signalling the central bank is confident in the level of liquidity in the financial system. China’s government also rejected U.S. and EU claims that state-sponsored hackers were behind the large attack on Microsoft’s (MSFT) e-mail server earlier this year. Meanwhile, Japan’s core consumer price index (“CPI”) for June showed numbers were in line with estimates, suggesting the Bank of Japan’s current policy will remain. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Minutes from the June policy meeting said the central bank may boost monetary support once more, depending on the economic outlook. Elsewhere, Oil rebounded 1.69% from yesterday’s OPEC-driven decline, while Bitcoin declined 3% after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen continued to criticise cryptocurrencies.

To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made flat yesterday and is still ahead by 1288 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

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Equities

The S&P 500 closed 1.52% higher at a price of 4323.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 550 points higher for a 1.62% gain at a price of 34,512.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.23% higher at a price of 14,728.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.58% higher at a price of 27,548.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.

The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1762.

The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at 1.3608.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $109.87.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at -0.42%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.54%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower at 1.19%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.65% higher at $68.02 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.01% lower at $1,807.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. The only American data is the MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm.

September S&P 500

The McClellan Oscillator again proved what a valuable trading signal it is when closing with a reading of -250 and lower. Monday’s -300 print was one of the highest reading for the MO since the February/March 2020 crash and has led to a 100 point rally in the S&P off Monday’s 4324 low print. Frustratingly, the S&P missed my 4253 buy level by five Handles before trading the whole of my sell range for a now 4301 average short position. I will leave my 4321 ‘’Closing Stop’’ on this position while raising my T/P level to 4295. The S&P has support from 4257/4271 and I will move my buy level higher to this range with a ‘’Closing 4245 Stop’’.

EUR/USD

I still believe that the Euro will break lower. The Euro is having trouble breaking the key 1.1820/1.1870 resistance level. Today, I will be a seller in this area with a 1.1905 tight stop. I will now lower my buy level to 1.1670/1.1710 with a lower 1.1635 stop.

September Dollar Index

I am still flat and I will again raise my sell level to 93.40/93.80 with a higher 94.15 stop.

September DAX

No Change. I am still a small seller from 15340/15410 with the same 15455 tight stop. I will now raise my buy level to 14950/15030 with a higher 14885 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15290. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15085.

September FTSE

My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 6770 buy level before rallying to my 6830 T/P level and I am now flat. With Sterling trading lower coupled with an oversold FTSE, it is difficult to see the FTSE sell-off too much from current prices. We have short-term support from 6730/6780 where I will again be a buyer with a 6685 stop.

Dow Rolling Contract

Just like the S&P above the Dow missed my 33980 initial buy level by a few points before rallying to an intra-day high at 34621. This move higher has me short at an average rate of 34400. In hindsight, given the -300 MO reading I should not have had any sell levels in yesterday’s Daily Commentary for my US Indexes. I am still short and I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 34350 while leaving my 34605 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. The Dow has short-term support from 34030/34180 where I will be a strong buyer with a 33895 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

September NASDAQ

The NASDAQ eventually hit my 14720 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this position at 14800 while leaving my 14880 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 14670. I will also be a buyer on any further dip to 14500/14580 with a 14425 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

September BUND

My latest 175.45 short position was stopped at 176.05 and I am still flat. With the DSI for US Treasuries above 92%, I believe the upside for Bond prices from here to be limited. Having Inflation north of 5% and 10 -Year Treasuries at 1.20% does not sit well with me as Central Banks continue to keep yields lower given the level of Global Debt. Today, I will be a seller of the Bund from 176.20/176.70 with a 177.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 175.80.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still a buyer from 1770/1785 with the same 1759 stop.

Silver Rolling Contract

I am still long at 25.40 with the same 25.45 T/P level and 24.75 stop.