U.S. Equity Markets closed lower Tuesday with Nvidia (NVDA) sold ahead of its earnings on Wednesday, although shares and Indices did pare significantly into the close. There is a growing consensus that the Company needs to print a massive beat to keep the momentum going or we are likely to see another post-earnings period of consolidation akin to what has been seen in recent quarters – the price action Tuesday reflects some front-running of those concerns. Meanwhile, AI bellwether Super Micro Computer (SMCI) also extended Friday’s sharp sell-off, although it also trimmed losses significantly heading into the close. Earnings from Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) were “fine”, although there was some concern from Walmart’s comment that inflation had not fallen as much as anticipated. Treasuries bull-steepened after soft Canadian CPI eased global inflationary concerns ahead of today’s 20yr auction and FOMC minutes. The Dollar was also sold broadly apart from vs CAD given the soft CPI. CNH saw strength against the aforementioned weaker Dollar but initially sold off after the PBoC cut the 5yr LPR rate by more than expected to 3.95% from 4.2% (exp. 4.1%). Elsewhere, Oil closed 2% lower while a weaker Dollar saw Gold end Tuesday with a small 0.3% gain.

To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 90 points yesterday and is still ahead by 1091 points for February after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.60% lower at a price of 4975.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 64 points lower for a 0.17% loss at a price of 38,563.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.79% lower at a price of 17,546.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.10% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.4% lower at a price of 38,365.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.27% lower.

The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0810.

The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2620.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.3% closing at $149.94.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.39%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 4.05%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher 4.29%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.98% lower at $77.04 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.3% higher at $2023.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement at 7.00 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm, followed by Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the FOMC Minutes at 7.00 pm and earnings from tech giant Nvidia after the close. Meanwhile, Fed Members Bostic and Bowman are speaking at 1.00 pm and 6.00 pm respectively.

Cash S&P 500

Weaker tech stocks saw the S&P hit an afternoon low at 4955 before the market rallied 20 Handles off this low into the close. For now, last week’s Double top at 5040 is containing markets. However, this evening’s binary event namely the Nvidia earnings will quickly change the landscape. Much weaker than expected earnings from Nvidia could trigger a large tech sell-off but like all selloffs that we have seen over the past 16 months, they are aggressively bought. The most bearish case that I can make for the S&P is a 5% correction from the 5049 all-time high to the January 2022 highs at 4800. With the $NYSI and $NYMO near maximum oversold it is extremely difficult to be short while at the same time given the excessive valuations, makes its extremely dangerous to be overly long the market. Yesterday’s move lower saw the whole of my S&P buy range triggered for a 4966 average long position. The S&P hit a subsequent 4955 low print before rallying to my revised 4969 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P should have strong support at last week’s 4921 low print. As a result, I will be a strong buyer from 4915/4932 with a tight 4899 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4948. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.

EUR/USD

The price action in the Euro has changed over the past week with the market now a buy on dips rather than a sell on rallies. Unfortunately, the Euro just missed my 1.0940 buy level before rallying to sit at 1.0810 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0700/1.0770 with a higher 1.0635 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Dollar Index

I am still flat the Dollar. I will now lower my sell level to 104.40/105.10 with a lower 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.

Cash DAX

I have said many times that ‘’nothing matters’’. Even the head of the Bundesbank warning that the German Economy is now in recession could not attract selling in German Equities. This I find incredible as you would think that a comment like this from the head of the German Central Bank would see some negative price action. I am still flat the DAX. The DAX has strong support from 16800/16880. I will now lower my buy level to this area where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 16725 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.

Cash FTSE

Lower Gilt Yields helped the FTSE to outperform the European Indexes yesterday and I am still flat. The FTSE has strong support from 7580/7650 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 7525 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

I am still flat the Dow as the market just missed yesterday’s buy range before rallying 150 points off its afternoon low print. Ahead of the FOMC Minutes and Nvidia’s earnings, I will now lower my buy level to 38050/38300 with a lower 37895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash NASDAQ 100

My NDX plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 17470 average long position. A late rally saw the NDX rally to my revised 17530 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has strong support from 17220/17370 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 17095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 17490. Despite the negative NDX price action over the past week, I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.

March BUND

No Change. I am still long from last week at a price of 133.10. I will now lower my T/P level to 133.55. I will add to this position at 132.40 while leaving my 131.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still flat Gold as the market again traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1983/1998 with the same 1971 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2007.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. The boring price action shows no sign of ending unfortunately. I still believe in the bull case for this precious metal. I will continue to hold my 24.40 average long position with no stop or T/P level for now. This morning, Silver is trading slightly lower at a price of 23.07. I will continue to look to add to my existing long position on any further move lower to 21.50. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.