A weaker Dollar helped U.S. Equity Markets register strong gains across the board, led by the 2.62% rally in the NASDAQ 100. A major milestone in Shanghai helped boost the S&P 500. Local authorities noted that the city achieved three days of no new COVID-19 infections outside of quarantined regions in China. This may indicate that it could soon reopen key financial, manufacturing, and transportation hubs – providing a boost for domestic and international companies that rely on China for the bulk of their operations. So, in Wall Street’s eyes, this could mark the bottom of the crisis in China, alleviating at least one issue rippling across the global markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. reported Retail-Sales growth in April. While the 0.9% rise was lower than the projected 1% increase, it signals consumers are continuing to spend despite inflationary pressures. These figures, combined with Industrial Production having climbed 1.1% last month, could indicate an improvement in output and consumer activity. And if this trend continues, it may help alleviate broader concerns about an economic deceleration. Still, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine will likely further drive crude and food prices higher, which could weigh on businesses and households in the long term. Within the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Euro-Zone’s Preliminary First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product figures were stronger than expected due to a rebound in German activity. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds multiple speaking engagements this week, with investors awaiting confirmation on how soon interest-rate hikes will start. Britain’s Unemployment rate for March was lower than anticipated, signalling steady economic activity and an increased potential for more interest-rate hikes. In Asia, Japan’s preliminary machine-tool order growth for April decelerated compared with march due to a contraction in domestic and foreign orders on a month-over-month basis. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank will monitor the economic impact of the Yen’s weakness, as price stability is important from a long-term-growth outlook. Shanghai’s government said it met the goal of three straight days of zero COVID-19 transmissions outside of quarantined areas, hitting a key hurdle to begin the reopening process. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Minutes from its most recent meeting showed policymakers intend to continue raising interest rates as they feel the policy is too stimulative. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.88% after comments from Hungary suggesting a Russian oil ban would cost it $811 million to prepare its refineries, while Gold fell 0.66% following a rise in U.S. Retail Sales.

To mark my 2550th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 495 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2244 points for May having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 2.02% higher at a price of 4088.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 431 points higher for a 1.34% gain at a price of 32,654.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.62% higher at a price of 12,564.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.6% higher.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.42% higher at a price of 26,659.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% lower.

The Euro closed 1.1% higher at $1.0548.

The British Pound closed 1.3% higher at 1.2486.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $129.35.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed ten basis points higher at 1.05%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 12 basis points higher at 1.88%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed ten basis points higher at 2.98%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.88% lower at $112.97 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.66% lower at $1814.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am and U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have Housing Starts and Building Permits at 1.30 pm.

Cash S&P 500

The idea that the S&P put in a meaningful bottom last Thursday at a price of 3858 is working well with the S&P now trading higher at 4092 as I go to press. We had an excellent trading session for the Platinum Members as after the S&P hit my 4019 T/P level on yesterday’s late 4005 long position, I emailed them again to buy the S&P at 4048 before exiting this position at my 4074 T/P level and I am now flat. The three criteria that I outlined this week as necessary for a sustain S&P bounce is progressing. I stated yesterday that the Dollar could sell-off at any stage and that is beginning to work with the Euro rising 1.3% helping my long Euro position below. Junk Bond Yields are still in bearish territory with the Barclays High Yield Bond ETF still down over 15% for the year. The 14-Day RSI is at 31 so we are not far off getting a buy signal here. The VIX fell a further 5% yesterday closing at a price of 26 and well off this month’s 35 high print. The S&P has support from 4025/4055 where I will be a small buyer with a 3999 stop.

EUR/USD

It took some patience but finally the DSI worked yesterday as the Euro rallied to my 1.0550 T/P level on my latest 1.0455 long position and I am now flat. The Euro could well have put in a meaningful low at 1.0355 on Monday. As a result, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0460/1.0520 with a 1.0405 stop.

March Dollar Index

The Dollar fell 0.7% yesterday and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 103.70/104.30 with a lower 105.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 103.15.

Cash DAX

Thankfully we had no sell level in the DAX yesterday as the market closed with a gain of 1.6%. I will now raise my buy level to 13960/14060 with a 13885 tight stop.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. A 12 basis point rise in Gilt Yields stopped the market from following the European Indexes higher. I will now raise my buy level to 7410/7470 with a higher 7345 stop.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow has now rallied 1700 points off last Thursday’s low but is up against strong resistance from 32950/33100 where I will be a small seller with a 33255 stop. A break and close over 33150 is bullish for a move back to the post Fed high at 34000. The Dow has support from 32320/32520 where I will be a small buyer with a 32145 tight stop. Sentiment is still on the floor as shown by the Fear & Greed Index which improved slightly last night, closing at 15 which is still a reading of ‘’Extreme Fear’’

Cash NASDAQ 100

No Change. I continue to nurse last month’s 14327 long position which I have now carried into May. I will now lower my exit level on this position to 14100 which I am hopeful we will see this month. The NDX has support from 12150/12350 and I will add to my existing position on any drop to this level with a 11995 higher stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12510.

June BUND

The Bund got hit hard yesterday as Yields rose 10 basis points (1.05%). As a result, the Bund traded the whole of my buy range for a now 152.80 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 153.10 while leaving my 151.65 wider stop for now. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold had a quiet trading session yesterday and I am still flat. I am not crazy about the current price action as I believe a lot of Funds and Investors are trapped long above the market. I will now lower my buy level to 1801/1786 with a wider 1769 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. Silver has support from 20.50/21.10 where I will again be a buyer with a 19.95 stop.