Most U.S. stocks rose as a group of high-profile earnings offered divergent clues on the strength of the American economy. The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since the March Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 eked out a gain, while the Nasdaq 100 closed within 0.1 percent of an all-time high. Apple Inc. was flat and Qualcomm Inc. surged after the two dropped litigation against each other. Netflix Inc. ended the regular session higher, but slid in late trading after a key metric missed estimates. IBM Corp. fell afterhours as sales fell short of forecasts. Financial firms paced gains after BlackRock Inc.’s results offset weakness at Bank of America Corp. UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s earnings call rekindled concern about policy uncertainty, dragging insurers lower. Johnson & Johnson advanced after strong earnings. Treasuries continued to slump, with rates reclaiming levels last seen before the Fed’s dovish tilt a month ago. In Europe, equities climbed for a fifth day, driven by insurance and financial services firms. In Asia, shares in China and Hong Kong outperformed markets in Japan and South Korea. The Euro pared a decline after Bloomberg reported that European Central Bank officials are said to lack enthusiasm for any revamp of their negative-interest rate tool.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 27 points yesterday and is now ahead by 539 points for April, having made 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Investors are spending the holiday-shortened week assessing the chances that stocks will sustain their rally even as similar gains in global investment-grade bonds have ebbed since late March. Optimism over earnings appears to be boosting bullish sentiment in equities, though volumes have been muted. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent to close at 2,907.09 , while both the Dow and NASDAQ ended the day with a 0.3% gain. In Europe the Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.3 percent. Meanwhile the MSCI Emerging Market Index rose 0.7 percent, the largest advance in two weeks. And the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3 percent to the highest level in more than six months.
With FX Volatility trading at a five year low the markets continue to lack any form of direction. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.2 percent to the highest in more than a week. The Euro was little changed at $1.1290 while the surprise to me was the fact that the British pound declined 0.3 percent to $1.3059. The Japanese yen climbed 0.1 percent to 111.97 per dollar.
Central banks are also in the frame, with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who currently sees rates on hold until the fall of 2020, saying that the nation’s central bank may need to cut them if inflation falls. Officials from Australia, New Zealand and Japan also indicated appetite to support growth through monetary policy. These comments did little for the US Bond markets with the yield on 10-year Treasuries increasing three basis points to 2.59 percent, the highest in four weeks. Germany’s 10-year yield climbed one basis point to 0.066 percent, the highest in almost a month.
Elsewhere, oil held near the lowest in a week in New York on estimates that U.S. crude inventories increased again. Emerging-market stocks climbed, though the currencies weakened. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.1 percent to $64.11 a barrel. In precious Metals Gold continued its recent sell-off falling 0.9 percent to $1,274 an ounce, which is a new low for the year to date. Meanwhile Silver closed higher as it continues to find good support at the $14.80 area.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am and this is followed at 9.30 am by UK CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance and CPI. In the US Wholesale Inventories will be released at 3.00 pm. Finally we have the Beige Book at 7.00 pm.
Speaking wise its is a busy day with the Bank of England’s Governor Carney first up at 2.00 pm. Next we have the ECB’s Lautenschlager at 3.30 pm, followed by the Fed’s Bullard at 5.45 pm.
June S&P 500
Frustratingly the S&P missed my 2904 buy level with a 2604.50 low print before rallying to trade at 2915 this morning. There is no doubt the market is overbought as we wait to see if we can test last year’s all-time high of 2940 over the coming days. We may see some nervousness surrounding the release of the Mueller Report this afternoon but either way as long as the Central Banks are pursuing an easier monetary policy these markets will continue to be a buy on dips. Today I will look to buy the S&P from 2896/2905 with a 2889 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer from 2876/2886 with a 2867 wider stop. I will still look to sell the S&P on any rally higher to 2937/2947 with a tight 2954 stop.
I am still flat the Euro as the market waits its next move. With the CFTC Commitment of traders showing short Euro positions at 100,000 contracts it is difficult to see the Euro having a meaningful move lower. Today I will leave my 1.1220/1.1260 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1185 stop.
June Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 96.95/97.35 with a 97.65 stop.
The DAX continues to build value above its key 11800 support level as I look for the market to test the strong 12250/12400 resistance area. I am still flat and today I will again raise my buy level to 11970/12040 with a 11915 stop.
The FTSE did trade higher to my 7425 sell level before falling to an overnight low of 7390. Unfortunately I covered my short position at 7418 and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the market on any rally higher to 7420/7465 with a wider 7505 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow made another new high for the year at 26520 shortly after the US Markets opened yesterday before having a small sell-off into the close. Financials continue to power ahead closing at its highest level since last October as yet again anyone stupidly trying to short these markets are getting slammed. Today I will raise my buy level slightly to 26200/26350 with a 26080 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
I am still flat the NASDAQ with the market close to trading at all-time highs. Today I will raise my buy level to 7610/7650 with a 7570 stop.
The BUND again just missed my 165.05 sell level with a 164.95 high print before falling 60 points and I am still flat. Today I will lower my sell level to 164.80/165.25 with a lower 165.55 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold got hit hard again yesterday with the market trading lower to my 1274 buy level. As I am still long Silver I covered this position at my revised 1276 T/P level and I am now flat. Today my only interest in buying Gold is on a further dip lower to 1258/1266 with a 1251 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Thankfully we are seeing some positive divergence between Gold and Silver with the latter back trading above 15.00 this morning. I am still long at 15.15 with the same 15.25 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position on any move lower to 14.80 with a now higher 14.55 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.