U.S. Equity Markets erased losses in the final moments of trading as investors continued to gravitate to value shares. Treasury yields rose for a fifth day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed positive, while the S&P 500 was little changed and the NASDAQ ended in negative territory. The Dow had briefly turned up midday following a report that China is ready to buy more U.S. agricultural products. Areas of the market that were previously this year’s best performers fell the most. The opposite was true, too, with energy stocks gaining and small caps outperforming for a second day. Investors are awaiting the ECB’s policy decisions on Thursday and those next week by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England as they assess how much monetary easing may be looming. In other news a cross-party group is seeking a way out of the Brexit “nightmare” by working together to find a deal that can secure a majority in Parliament, suggesting a Northern Ireland-only backstop may be one answer. That would make the province the only part of the U.K. to remain aligned to European Union rules, allowing the free flow of goods over the land border with the Irish Republic until alternative arrangements can be agreed. Nick Boles, an independent member of Parliament who quit the Tories this year and worked with Boris Johnson when he was Mayor of London, said the Prime Minister “doesn’t care about anything other than power and glory for himself.” He will seek to remain in office by any means, Boles said.
To mark my 1900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 130 points yesterday and is now ahead by 495 points for September, having made 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 Index closed little changed at 2979 having traded to a low of 2957 earlier in the afternoon.
The Dow Jones rose 0.3% to close at 26,909, reaching its highest level in six weeks after recording its fifth consecutive advance
Euro Stoxx 50 Futures gained 0.2%.
The Japanese Yen was at 107.72 per dollar, down 0.2%.
The offshore Yuan dipped 0.1% to 7.1140 per dollar.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
The Euro bought $1.1049.
The Pound fluctuated as embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson insisted he won’t ask for another Brexit delay, while U.K. Wage and Unemployment data beat estimates. Pound volatility is at Emerging-Market levels and U.K. assets are set for a substantial repricing once the Brexit outcome becomes known, according to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
Despite the worsening political situation the Pound closed unchanged at $1.2350
Treasury Yields rose for a fifth day with the Yield on 10-year Treasuries closing at 1.71% after rising nine basis points Tuesday.
Germany’s 10-year yields climbed four basis points, to -0.55%, which is the highest level in four weeks.
Gold closed 0.8% lower at $1487, the weakest in almost five weeks.
Oil plunged after President Donald Trump fired one of his most hawkish advisers. Futures fell as much as 1% after Trump announced that National Security Advisor John Bolton was out.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.5% lower at $57.55 a barrel, the first retreat in a week.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. PPI. Finally, we have Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm followed by the results of a 10-Year Auction at 6.00 pm. These Auction results will be closely watched after the 25 basis points rise in the T-Note over the past week.
September S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 2959 buy level before rallying 20 Handles into the close. This move higher enabled me to cover this position at my 2964 T/P level and I am now flat. Traders continue to be trapped short below 2925. In my opinion it is only a matter of time before both the S&P and Dow make new highs. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2962/2972 with a 2954 tight stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer from 2935/2948 with a 2627 stop.
The boring action in the Euro shows no sign of ending and I am still flat. With the ECB Meeting tomorrow we are likely to see more of this sideways price action until Dragi’s press conference. Today I will leave my 1.0940/1.0980 buy level unchanged with the same 1.0905 stop.
December Dollar Index
Just like the Euro above the Dollar is also trading in a narrow range. The little price action in the currency markets (apart from Sterling) should change after the ECB tomorrow and the FOMC Meeting next week. Today I will again leave my 98.35/98.75 sell level unchanged with the same 99.05 stop.
There is no end to the DAX rally with the market opening above 12300 this morning. The DAX has now risen nearly 10% in the last few weeks. I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 12140/12220 with a 12085 tight stop. Any sell-off to the 12000/12200 support area should be met with strong buying.
I am still flat the FTSE which never came close to yesterday’s 7160 buy level, as the market rallied from the off. This morning we are trading at 7280 as I go to post and I will now raise my level to 7210/7250 with a 7165 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly the Dow just missed my 26680 buy level with a 26717 low print before rallying strongly into the close. That rally has continued overnight with the market now trading at 26935. Just like the S&P above, traders are caught short the Dow following last month’s vicious sell-off and rebound this month. It is only a matter of time before we take out the 27398 all-time high as I have a short-term target level of 27800. I will now move my buy level higher to 26700/26850 with a 26595 tight stop. As long as the Dow can hold the 26400 support then the market will continue to be a buy on dips.
Shortly after the U.S. Markets opened the NASDAQ traded lower to my second buy level at 7750 for an average 7780 average long position before rallying to my 7800 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the NASDAQ on any dip lower to 7740/7790 with a 7695 stop.
Frustratingly the Bund just missed my sell level by a few points before following the US Bonds lower into the close and I am still flat. Today I will lower my buy level to 172.90/173.35 with a 172.60 stop as we wait for the ECB Rate announcement tomorrow afternoon.
Gold Rolling Contract
Just as I posted yesterday Gold traded at my 1494 T/P level on my 1488 long position and I am still flat. Gold has good support from 1468/1478 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 1459 tight stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver and today I will now raise my buy level to 17.70/18.10 with a 17.35 stop.