Nervousness ahead of this afternoon’s CPI release saw U.S. Equity Markets close lower Tuesday. The small across the board sell-off saw the VIX close higher by 4.3% at a price of 17.71. The Federal Reserve reported tighter lending standards and a continued decline in loan demand for the first quarter according to its Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Banks had already started to tighten lending standards late last year and the recent regional banking crisis has only further incentivised banks to tighten credit access. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that the prolonged stalemate over the debt ceiling is making the Fed’s job harder. He warned that the contentious debate is adversely affecting the economic outlook and could spark another round of banking stresses. U.S. small business confidence fell in April on worries that economic conditions in the short-term will not improve. Additionally, businesses continue to report that worker shortages continue to be a drag on companies. Tesla (TSLA) broke ground on its new lithium batter refinery in Texas on Monday. The new factory is expected to produce enough battery metal to supply about 1 million electric vehicles by 2025. The step into the mineral refining space will make Tesla the only major car maker to refine its own lithium. PayPal (PYPL) cut its outlook for operating margin by 20%, sending shares lower. The news seemed to overshadow the fact that its profit forecast was raised as investors viewed the declining margin as a major red flag for the company that generates a bulk of its revenue from high margin transactions through e-commerce checkouts. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said that inflation in the Euro-Zone still has plenty of momentum but that underlying pressures combined with tighter policy should see a reversal later this year. In Asia, China has officially launched its new initiative aimed at cracking down on consulting firms. The anti-spy measure is the latest move from Beijing aimed at tightening foreign access to sensitive government data. Australian business conditions remained stable in April as sales volume and continued labour market strength continued to withstand elevated cost pressures on businesses. This new data comes just a month after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly decided to lift its temporary pause and hike rates to an 11-year high of 3.85%. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.55% while Gold closed higher by 0.8%.

To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 130 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1753 points for May. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.46% lower at a price of 4119.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points lower for a 0.17% loss at a price of 33,562.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.68% lower at a price of 13,201.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.42% lower.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.30% higher.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.33% lower at a price of 29,145.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.

The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0960.

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2619.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $135.25.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.35%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 3.84%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 3.52%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.55% higher at $73.71 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.80% higher at $2035.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German April Final CPI which rose 7.2% Y/Y as expected.  At 12.00 pm we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications. This is followed by CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a Ten -Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the Monthly Budget Statement at 7.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500

The S&P has been on hold this week. Yesterday was the lowest volume day of the year with the volume not even qualifying as a holiday half day. This is no surprise as investors are waiting for a catalyst. Be it CPI this afternoon or news on the debt ceiling. Most charts are pointless at this stage as this afternoon will be another ‘’Gap Event’’ depending on what CPI shows. Patience remains the name of the game. When markets are this quiet, we need to take smaller gains if available. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well as the market hit my 4117-buy level before rallying to my revised 4127 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Ahead of CPI, I will be a buyer on any further dip lower to 4083/4098 with a 4069 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a small seller from 4160/4175 with the same 4191 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

EUR/USD

No Change. I am still long from yesterday morning at 1.0985 with the same 1.1040 T/P level. buy level. I will add to this position at 1.0920 while leaving my 1.0865 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

June Dollar Index

I am still flat the Dollar. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 99.90/100.60. with the same 99.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash DAX

No Change. It does not matter what the News as the DAX continue to attract strong buying on any dip. The price action tells us not to be short while the economic backdrop makes its extremely hard to be a buyer. I will leave my 15760/15840 buy level unchanged with same 15685 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The DAX has resistance from 16100/16200 where I will be a small seller with a 16305 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash FTSE

Yesterday’s sell-off saw the FTSE hit my 7740-buy level. We are bouncing as I go to post. Given the lack of volatility I have now exited this long position here at 7770 and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 7650/7720 with a lower 7595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

One of the quietest trading sessions for the year to date with little or no price action across the three American Indexes that I cover. The Dow has resistance from 33900/34150 where I will be a small seller with a 34305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of CPI I will leave my 33130/33380 buy level unchanged with the same 32995 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash NASDAQ 100

The NDX gapped lower yesterday before trading in a narrow range for the rest of Tuesday’s session. I am still flat. I will continue to be an aggressive seller on any further rally to 13340/13490 with the same 13605 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NDX has short-term support from 12900/13050 where I will be a buyer with a 12795 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

June BUND

No Change. The Bund traded in a narrow range yesterday. I am still long at 135.50 with the same 136.10 T/P level. I will add to this position at 134.70 while leaving my 133.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.

Gold Rolling Contract

Despite a stronger Dollar, Gold rose 0.8% yesterday, trading at 2030 as I go to press. Gold has now almost reversed all of Friday’s aggressive sell-off. However, I am reluctant to chase Gold higher, leaving my 1980/1995 buy level unchanged with the same 1969 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still long from Friday at 25.40 with the same 26.20 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position at 24.60 while leaving my 23.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.