U.S. equities declined as investors tried to gauge the outlook for a trade deal between China and the Trump administration. Treasuries slipped and the US Dollar gained. The S&P 500 Index ended the day about half a percentage point lower after bouncing between small gains and small losses in light volume. Sentiment got a boost on speculation that China is ready to do a deal, while pessimists focused on a report that senior Chinese officials have indicated the range of topics they’re willing to discuss at upcoming talks has narrowed considerably. After the close of New York markets, the U.S. placed eight Chinese technology companies on a blacklist because of alleged human-rights violations, a move that may add to tensions between the countries. In the wake of a slew of weak data and with protectionism portrayed as the main impediment to global growth, investor focus will return to foreign trade this week as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and an entourage of officials head to Washington to resume talks with their U.S. counterparts. As economic indicators flash warnings, traders have ramped up bets for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. They’ll search for new clues on the policy path when minutes from the latest Fed meeting are released on Wednesday. As Brexit negotiations resumed in Brussels, Boris Johnson got a boost from the courts. A Scottish judge ruled in the Prime Minister’s favour in a case that could have forced him to obey a law requiring him to delay Brexit if he can’t reach a deal. But the lift may only be short-lived. The judge ignored the PM’s frequent assertions he won’t seek an extension and instead relied on assurances from government lawyers that he would obey the law. That may make it harder for Johnson to leave without a deal on Oct. 31.
To mark my 1925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 37 points yesterday and is now ahead by 343 points for October, having made 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Given the high level of uncertainty that’s out there and the cross-currents — the cross-currents being escalating geopolitical risks on the one hand and increased monetary easing on the part of the world’s global central banks — it’s really difficult at this point to determine which force is going to gain the upper hand.
The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.5% to close at a price of 2939.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.7% as foodmaker and telecom companies advanced.
Japan’s Topix index was little changed.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
The Pound slipped 0.3% to $1.2296, as European leaders cast doubt on reaching a Brexit agreement in time for the U.K.’s Oct. 31 deadline.
The Euro was little changed at $1.0975.
The Japanese Yen slipped 0.3% to 107.27 per dollar.
The offshore Yuan weakened 0.3% to 7.1312 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 1.56%.
Germany’s 10-year yield rose one basis point to -0.58%.
The U.K.’s 10-year yield rose one basis point to 0.45%.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $52.92 a barrel.
Gold fell 0.8% to $1,492.09 an ounce.
Copper gained 0.5% to $2.574 a pound.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Production which came in stronger than the -0.1% expected with a print of +0.3%. At 11.00 am we have the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index. This is followed at 1.30 pm by PPI. Finally, the Fed’s Evans is speaking at 6.35 pm with Fed Chair Powell following at 7.30 pm on the final day of the NABE Conference in Denver.
December S&P 500
Frustratingly the S&P just missed my initial 2959 sell level with a 2958.75 high print before falling over 20 Handles in to the close. If you sold in front of my order than this trade would have worked very well for you. Overnight, Stocks rose in Asia with U.S. Futures following confirmation from China about the country’s high-level delegation heading for trade talks with the U.S. in Washington later this week. As I go to press the S&P is now trading at 2949. Today, I will raise my sell level slightly to 2962/2975 with a higher 2983 stop. I will also raise my buy level to 2919/2931 with a 2909 stop.
The boring action in the currency markets shows no sign of ending anytime soon. I am still flat the Euro and I will now raise my buy level to 1.0900/1.0940 with the same 1.0855 stop.
December Dollar Index
No Change as my only interest in selling the Dollar is still on a rally higher to 98.90/99.30 with the same 99.75 tight stop.
The DAX led the European Equity Markets higher yesterday. However was volume was again light and I am still flat as the market did not come near my buy range. Today I will now raise my buy level to 11910/11990 with a higher 11855 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Optimism that a deal can be agreed with the EU this week saw the FTSE close higher yesterday as thankfully we had no sell level in this market. Today I will now raise my buy level to 7080/7125 with a 7045 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Despite the Dow rallying over 900 points off last Thursday’s 25733 low print Volume has contracted for the third consecutive trading session. On top of this the McClellan Oscillator is still negative closing at -86 last night. In my opinion almost all the good news re any trade agreement with China is priced into the market. Traders are not braced for any negative news emanating when the two sides meet this week. As a result I will be a small seller on rallies and today I will lower my sell level to 26730/26880 with a 27005 stop. I will still leave my 26170/26330 buy level unchanged with the same 26095 tight stop.
No Change as I am still a seller from 7800/7860 with the same 7910 stop. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 7645/7705 with a 7595 stop.
The BUND traded in a narrow range yesterday as the market goes on hold ahead of the FOMC Minutes which will be released at 7.00 pm tomorrow. I am still flat the market and today I will now lower my sell level to 174.55/174.95 with a 175.25 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Late yesterday Gold traded lower to my 1490 buy level. As I did not want to have a position overnight I lowered my T/P level on this position to 1493.75 and I am now flat. With Silver hitting my buy level overnight my only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 1468/1478 with a 1461 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
As mentioned above Silver traded lower to my 17.30 buy level overnight. I am still long and I will now raise my stop on this position to 16.90. I will have a T/P level on this position at 17.58 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.