U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed after reversing earlier gains as the sell-off accelerated into the close. Although the Dow closed higher by 0.12%, the market was up nearly 1% at one stage while the small cap Russell 2000 ended Monday’s session with a loss of 1.48%. Investors look ahead to a week of significant macro news, including key employment data ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s monetary policy testimony. U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics will be releasing key updates on labour-market tightness: the January job openings numbers on Wednesday and the February payroll data on Friday. Within the S&P 500 Index, five of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated inflation growth will likely remain high in the near term and warrant a 50-basis-point interest-rate increase in March. ECB monetary policy pioneer Otmar Issing warned of further “inflation shocks” and said the central bank must stay steadfast in its aggressive policy stance. Euro-Zone Retail Sales for January underwhelmed, with lower-than-expected growth, and signals weak consumer demand could continue in the near term, while the Sentix Investor Confidence for February fell unexpectedly, marking the first decline since October as expectations drastically declined amidst renewed recession worries. In Asia, Australia’s central bank will likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points this morning which would put the nation’s key interest rate at its highest level since May 2012. China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced a 7.2% increase to the country’s military budget, saying the country’s military should better prepare for combat readiness. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged when it meets later this week as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda does not want to change course at his final meeting. China’s Government endorsed a 5% economic growth forecast for 2023, slightly above last year’s 3% gain – one of the worst output numbers since the 1.6% contraction in 1976. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.15% higher while Gold closed flat.

To mark my 2725th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 62 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1122 points for March after finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.07% higher at a price of 4048

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 40 points higher for a 0.12% gain at a price of 33,431.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.10% higher at a price of 12,302.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.02% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.19%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.11% higher at a price of 28,237.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.

The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0670.

The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2018.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $136.05.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.74%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 3.87%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 3.98%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.15% higher at $80.16 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.12% lower at $1852.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have German Factory Orders at 7.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Wholesale Inventories and Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony before Congress on the Economy and Monetary Policy at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have Consumer Credit at 8.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500

The S&P ripped higher on the U.S. open before running into strong resistance near the 4090 ‘’Open Gap’’ from two weeks ago. The 15-minute RSI got severely overbought before selling off into the close. Of concern was the lack of internal participation on the internals on the early rip resulting in the S&P filling its open gap from Friday. Rising Bond Yields saw the Russell 2000 and Bank Shares get hit hard yesterday. As long as the S&P defends the Daily 5EMA and the Weekly 150 MA I am comfortable being a buyer of dips as risk is still higher to 4300 into late April/May before we see a more meaningful sell-off. What happens today will as usual be determined by what Fed Chair Powell says at 3.00 pm in his Testimony to Congress. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 4010/4025 with the same 3993 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.

EUR/USD

The Euro rallied to my 1.0670 T/P level on last week’s 1.0620 latest long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0550/1.0630 with the same 1.0495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.

March Dollar Index

No Change. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 105.00/105.60 with the same 106.10 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash DAX

The DAX made a new recovery high yesterday despite Bund yields rising. I am still flat as the market never came close to my buy range. Given how overbought the DAX is trading I am reluctant to chase the market higher, leaving my 15380/15460 buy level unchanged with the same 15295 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE continues to build value below the 8000 level. Given the weak price action I exited my 7920 long position at my revised 7932 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has support from 7800/7860 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 7745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

I had the right idea of selling the Dow against the 50 Day Moving Average but unfortunately I was too tight with my 33600 sell level as the high was 33573 and I am still flat. Ahead of Powell this afternoon I will now raise my sell level to 33670/33920 with a higher 34105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 32900/33150 buy level unchanged with the same 32795 ‘’Closing Stop’’

Cash NASDAQ 100

The NDX had a strong reversal off its mid-afternoon high at 12465, trading at 12300 as I go to press. I will not chase the market higher leaving my 12030/12180 buy level unchanged as I want to see what reaction there is to Powell’s Testimony to Congress. I will have a stop at 11895 which is just below the 200-Day Moving Average.

March BUND

Just like the Equity Markets, the Bund reversed earlier gains to hit my 131.60 buy level. I am still long and I will continue to look to add to this position at 130.80 with the same 129.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 132.10. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

I am still flat. Given the small sell-off in Gold into the New York close I will now lower my buy level to 1817/1832 with a lower 1803 ‘’Closing Stop’’

Silver Rolling Contract

Silver continues to struggle, although we did close again over $21 last night. I am still long at 23.10 with the same no stop or T/P level. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.