A huge 5.7% rally in the Shanghai Composite Index, to close at its highest level in two years, led to a large rally in both European and U.S Indices. This move higher saw the MSCI Emerging Markets close with a gain of 4%, to its highest level since February. European Indices got an initial bounce after Euro-Zone Retail Sales rebounded sharply in May, indicating a snapback in economic activity. The DAX closed 1.6% higher after the Bundesbank announced that it will continue to buy Sovereign Bonds, easing concerns that Germany could undermine the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme. The FTSE closed 2.1% higher helped by reports that GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi were said to be discussing plans to supply the British Government with 60 million doses of their Coronavirus vaccine. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight gain for the first time since December, helped by Amazon Shares which hit a new all-time high at $3000. ISM Non-Manufacturing came in well above estimates, adding to the positive tone, with the single biggest Monthly increase in the Survey’s history. Elsewhere, Copper surged while Bitcoin close 4% higher after one report called Bitcoin the ‘’New Apple’’.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 115 points yesterday and is now ahead by 747 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 rose 1.59% to close at a price of 3179.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 460 points for a 1.78% gain to close at 26,287.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.53% higher at 10,604.
Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed with a gain of 1.6%%.
The FTSE 100 closed 2.1% higher at 6275.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.44% lower at 22,614.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Euro increased 0.5% to $1.1307.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at $107.37.
The British Pound closed unchanged at 1.2490 per Dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed two basis points lower at 0.68%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to -0.44%.
Britain’s 10-year yield increased two basis points to 0.21%.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $40.62 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% higher at $1786 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Production for May which rose 7.8%, well below the +11.1% expected. The only other data of note due today on either side of the Atlantic is the JOLTS Job Openings at 3.00 pm. Meanwhile the Fed’s Quarles is due to speak at 6.00 pm.
September S&P 500
Even though the S&P closed 1.6% higher, the market has not moved much since I posted 24 hours ago. Yesterday’s Chicago low was 3155, so yet again we have another large ‘’Open Gap’’ to Thursday’s 3120 close to be filled. Frustratingly the S&P just missed my 3185 initial sell level overnight with a 3183.25 high print before selling off 30 Handles. Yes the S&P is severely overbought but the latest American Association of Individual Investors’ Weekly Survey shows bullish sentiment at a nine-month low. This should continue to support the S&P rally as readings like this show investors sitting on their hands and doing nothing. Despite the S&P rallying 40.6% off the March 23 low, optimism has not recovered and is one of the main reasons why I will continue to be a buyer on dips. The last time bullish sentiment was this low before, the S&P gained 12.7% over the next three months. Three times in June the S&P tried to break its 200-Day Moving Average and each time the Fed stepped in with a new stimulus package. This proves to me that the Fed will do everything in their power to keep the market from crashing. I will now raise my buy level to 3122/3138 with a higher 3108 stop. To negate the rare Island Reversal from four weeks ago the S&P needs to break and close above 3200. Today I will raise my sell level slightly to 3187/3202 with the same 3211 stop.
The Euro fell shy of my 1.1350 sell level with a 1.1346 high print and I am still flat. I will leave my 1.1350/1.1390 sell level with the same 1.1425 stop. I will also raise my buy level to 1.1200/1.1240 with a higher 1.1165 stop.
September Dollar Index
The boring sideways action in the Dollar continues and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 97.20/97.60 with a lower 98.05 stop.
This morning the DAX is trading 200 points below its 12827, high made shortly after I posted yesterday morning. I am still flat and I will now lower my buy level to 12400/12530 with a 12315 stop.
Frustratingly the FTSE fell shy of my initial 6280 sell level with an overnight high at 6279.50 before falling 70 points and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 6260/6310 with a lower 6355 stop. Meanwhile I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 6110/6150 with the same 6065 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Internally the US Markets continue to struggle as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed barely in positive territory (+25) despite the mega rally we have seen in Equities since late March. I am not going to chase the Dow higher and I will leave my 25750/25950 buy level unchanged with the same 25595 stop. As I have a sell level in the S&P and I am short the NASDAQ, I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. Remember a break and close over 26250 for a few days is bullish for the Dow to at least test the June 8 high at 27,580.
The NASDAQ traded higher to my second sell level at 10580 for a 10530 average short position before unfortunately stopping me out of this position overnight at 10645. The NASDAQ is severely overbought with the Daily Sentiment Index showing two consecutive readings of 90% bulls. The NASDAQ is trading above its Daily Bollinger Band at the top of its Williams Index. As a result, I have gone short here again this morning at 10595. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 10695 with a 10755 stop. I will have an initial T/P level at 10502 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
I am still flat the Bund and today I will raise my sell level to 176.60/177.00 with a higher 177.35 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to trade at lofty prices, at 7-year highs. Sentiment is near extreme levels with the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index closing at 100 for the second consecutive session. You cannot get a higher reading than 100. This means that 100% of the stocks in the Index are trading with bullish technical patterns. The only other time that the BPGDM hitting 100 was back in July 2016. The price of Gold peaked a few weeks later before trading 40% lower in December of that year. This morning Gold is trading at 1783. I will be a small seller from 1802/1812 with a wider 1827 stop. My only interest in buying Gold is still on a dip lower to 1730/1740 with the same 1719 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 17.40/17.80 with a higher 16.95 stop.