U.S. Equity Markets finished Monday lower led by the 1.79% fall in the S&P 500. The across the board selling saw the VIX reverse recent weakness by closing higher by a huge 9% at a price of 20.75. Markets started the week moving lower, with the S&P 500 Index falling below the 4,000 mark and its 200-day moving average. Headlines continue to be dominated by the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy decision and the factors that could sway its decision. Economic indicators released yesterday reinvigorated fears that were largely quelled last week regarding the Fed being dead set on slowing rate hikes. November’s ISM services index surprised to the upside, painting a brighter picture of economic conditions. The Fed entered its blackout period over the weekend, so investors will be looking ahead to any further macro-news for rate guidance. Within the S&P 500 Index, all the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed mixed. Markets ended the day with trading split among major Indexes. Investors are taking a similar approach to the U.S., waiting for further indications of possible rate policy ahead of the European Central Bank’s rate decision next week. On the macro-news front, the Euro-Zone Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) hit a 21-month low, but long-term optimism rose slightly. Elsewhere, investors’ attention continues to be dominated by the ongoing energy saga in the region, following Friday’s news of an agreement to cap Russian oil prices at $60 per barrel. In Asia, Equities gained Monday, following a newfound momentum regarding China’s reopening plans. Shanghai and Hangzhou became the latest cities to ease restrictions. The nation is pivoting away from its economically crippling policy of the last few years. Reopening news sprung new optimism just as the Caixin Services PMI showed the pre-dated effects of the “zero-COVID” policy – hitting its lowest level since May. Earlier this morning the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates 25 basis points as expected. Elsewhere, Oil fell 3.28% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold close lower by 1.58%.

 

To mark my 2675th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 266 points yesterday and is now ahead by 676 points for December after closing November with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 1.79% lower at a price of 3998

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 482 points lower for a 1.40% loss at a price of 33,947.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.73% lower at a price of 11,786.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.41% lower.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.24% higher at a price of 27,885.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.6% higher.

The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0494.

The British Pound closed 0.8% lower at 1.2193.

The Japanese Yen fell 1.5% closing at $136.90.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 1.89%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 3.10%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 11 basis points higher at 3.60%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.28% lower at $77.81 a barrel.

Gold closed 1.58% lower at $1767.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Orders which rose 0.8% versus +0.1% expected. At 9.30 am we have U.K. Construction PMI, followed by U.S. Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the Redbook Index at 1.55 pm.

Cash S&P 500

This is the last week that the bears have to get something going on the downside as seasonality will kick in next week for the rest of the ‘’Santa’’ rally. This is exactly what happened as the S&P encountered strong resistance at the 4100 area last week before an aggressive sell-off yesterday saw the S&P lead the decline with a loss of 1.79%. This move lower saw the 200 Day Moving Average (4044) broken helping the market to accelerate lower into the close. It was an ugly session as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed 140 points lower with a +4 print. The continued correlation with the Dollar and Treasury Yields was again confirmed as the Dollar rallied off an oversold reading while 10-Year Treasuries found strong support at the June highs of 3.50%, closing 10 basis points higher. All eyes will be on Friday’s PPI and next week’s CPI reading ahead of the FOMC Meeting. Commodities got slammed yesterday, led by the 10% fall in Natural Gas. There is no doubt that inflation is going to fall hard in 2023. After the S&P hit my 4025 buy level we had four rallies to the 4038 area before finally the break of 4044 was too big, resulting in the S&P accelerating, to close below 4000. I did not like the price action, emailing my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 4035 and I am still flat. The S&P has resistance from 4035/4050 where I will be a strong seller with a fixed 4061 stop. The S&P has support from 3955/3970 where I will be a strong buyer with a 3939 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

EUR/USD

My latest 1.0540 Euro position worked well as the market dropped to my 1.0494  T/P level after testing the 1.06 resistance area yesterday morning and I am now flat. The Euro has rallied almost 1000 points off the October low which is an enormous move. We are now severely overbought and due a correction. The Euro has resistance from 1.0550/1.0620 where I will again be a seller with a 1.0685 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Euro has short-term support from 1.0340/1.0410 where I will be a buyer with a 1.0275 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

March Dollar Index

In contrast to Friday, my Dollar plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 104.10 buy level before rallying to my 104.80 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Dollar is trading higher at 105.20. We have support from 104.00/104.70 where I will again be a strong buyer with a 103.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash DAX

The boring sideways action in the DAX continues. For the last 10 days the DAX has traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. We have support from 14250/14330 where I will be a strong buyer with a 14185 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE continues to trade in its own space. The market rallied yesterday despite the aggressive sell-off in American indexes. I will now lower my sell level 7600/7680 with a lower 7735 ‘’Closing Stop’.

Dow Rolling Contract

I am still flat the Dow as the Dow never came close to yesterday’s sell range. Thankfully we had no buy level given the 500-point fall in the Dow yesterday and I am still flat. The Dow has support from 33500/33750 where I will be a buyer with a 33395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. With the 14 Day RSI falling to close at 58 last night, I no longer want to be a seller of the Dow at this time.

Cash NASDAQ 100

The NDX got hit hard yesterday, hitting my buy range for a now 11870 long position I will add to this trade at 11700 while leaving my 11595 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 11940. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

December BUND

My Bund plan worked well as after the market hit my 141.70 buy level we rallied to my 142.20 revised T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Bund is trading lower at 141.60. We have support from 140.40/141.10 where I will again be a buyer with a 139.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold got hit hard yesterday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 1771 average long position. I will leave my 1753 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lower my T/P level to 1779.

Silver Rolling Contract

Silver had a bad day yesterday, closing lower by almost 4%. I am now long at 22.70 and I will continue to look to add to this position at 22.00 with the same no stop policy. I will now lower my T/P level to 23.40 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.