U.S. Equity Markets closed lower on Monday. Price action was primarily categorised as an unwind of the Trump Trade after weekend polls and betting markets showed Trump losing momentum vs Harris. Briefly recapping, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed very surprisingly that Harris has overtaken Trump in the state 47%-44%, in addition to the final NYT/Siena Polls indicating how close this election is and how vital the swing states will be. In reaction, T-Notes gapped higher at the open and trended higher throughout the session to peak at 110-21+ before paring to lows of 110-08 ahead of, and after, a mixed 3 Year Auction, before paring slightly into settlement – albeit remaining bid on the day. The Dollar initially was sold but pared from lows and back to the unchanged level heading into APAC trade, albeit was still the lagging currency. Both the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen befitted the most from the rate differentials while the Australian Dollar was bid on prospects of a less-hawkish tone against China in a Harris presidency with Euro supported on the prospects of a more tariff-friendly President. However, the race is ultimately still very close and plenty of volatility is expected as the results start to unfold on Tuesday night. Stocks meanwhile were ultimately slightly lower with sectors mixed. Utilities tumbled while weakness in Communication Svs hit the Nasdaq, while Energy outperformed, alongside Real Estate. Tech was rather flat with gains in NVDA being offset by losses in AAPL and MSFT; NVDA was bid after it was announced it will be added to the Dow30 on Friday, replacing Intel (INTC). Energy stocks tracked gains in the crude complex higher with prices bid after reports over the weekend said that OPEC+ agreed to delay its planned output hike in December by one month, while focus remains on geopolitics and the potential attack on Israel from Iran, and any reaction thereafter. This week the focus heavily lies on the US Presidential Election (updated preview available below), but also the Federal Reserve rate decision (Thurs) will be of note to gauge Fed guidance in wake of the election (if the election has been called by then). Lastly, ISM Services PMI on Tuesday will also be watched, particularly the prices paid component after the surge higher in the manufacturing prices paid last week. Over the weekend (Nov 2nd-3rd) a couple of notable polls were released, showing support for Harris, which shifted the dial in betting markets and also general market sentiment. Firstly, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed very surprisingly that Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in the state 47%-44%. The poll showed that women, particularly those who are older or are politically independent, are driving the late shift toward Harris although the former President continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree. While a success for the VP in this state would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020, it could show a broader shift in votes towards Harris with undecided voters leaning towards the Dems. Secondly, the final NYT/Siena Polls (released Nov. 3rd) indicate how close this election is and how vital the swing states will be. Harris leads in 4, Trump in 1 and 2 tied, albeit all extremely marginal. Overall, the polls showed the race was deadlocked in six out of the seven battleground states and that all seven of them were within the margin of error. Recapping the results, Harris leads Trump in Nevada at 49% vs. 46%, North Carolina at 48% vs 46%, Wisconsin at 49% vs 47% and Georgia at 48% vs 47%, while Trump leads in Arizona at 49% vs 45% and the candidates were tied in Pennsylvania at 48% vs 48% and in Michigan at 47% vs 47%. As such, if the election was decided on the NYT/Siena poll, Harris would be President 47. Despite being exceedingly close, the polls adds that there are signs that late deciders are breaking for Harris as, among the 8% of voters who said they had only recently decided on their vote, she wins the group by 55%-44%. Amid the latest weekend updates, a notable shift was seen in betting markets, with Trump odds of winning the election notably trimmed on Polymarket and Kalshi, while on PredictIt odds actually shifted in favour of a Harris election victory. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.81% higher while Gold was flat despite a weaker Dollar.
To mark my 3075th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 525 points yesterday and is now ahead by 966 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower at a price of 5712.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 257 points lower for a 0.61% loss at a price of 41,794.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.35% lower at a price of 19,963.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.33% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.63% lower at a price of 38,053.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.38% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0880.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2955.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.5% closing at $152.12.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower 2.39%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points higher at 4.46%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points lower at 4.30%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.81% higher at $71.44 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.05% higher at $2737 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Composite Manufacturing PMI at 9.30 am. Next, we have U.S. Trade Balance at 1.30 pm and Composite Services PMI at 2.45 pm. This is followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a 10-Year T-Note Auction at 6.00 pm and a speech from ECB Member Schnabel at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Finally, the U.S. Presidential Election arrives today after what has seemed an eternity. I am expecting a fair amount of two-way volatility as we also have the U.S. Treasury Funding followed by the latest rate cut from the Fed on Thursday when the FOMC Statement is released at 7.00 pm that evening. My plan is still to buy weakness when it comes as so many of my technical signals are oversold despite the Indexes only falling 3% from all-time highs which in itself is madness. However, Equity Markets are super expensive and hence any trigger could prompt a large valuation reset. Whatever sell-off is generated over the next 48 hours will be quickly reversed as attention will then turn to Fed Chair Powell’s and his merrymen. The S&P still has potential for a further ‘’Super Rally’’ to 6100/6200. If this were to happen and despite the positive seasonality I will be looking to fade this type of rip. Remember record tech buybacks are coming next week on top of the Fiscal Dominance that continues unabated. Indeed, Yellen just added $104 billion of debt in one day at the end of last week, making a total of $655 billion added in the past five weeks. No matter who wins this evening/tomorrow morning the Treasury are still going to keep adding liquidity as they have no choice. I have zero interest in pressing the downside this week. Yesterday, my buy plan worked well as the market again tested its 50-Day Moving Average before having a nice rally and then giving up 50% of that rally into close. I bought the S&P at 5704 before we rallied to my 5726 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, my only interest in buying the S&P is on a dip lower to 5640/5660 with a wider 5619 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 5702. As I mentioned above, I have no interest in shorting the S&P. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. Given the expected volatility if you see a nice gain on any long position executed please do not wait for my update to exit.
EUR/USD
The Euro ignored Friday’s downside Key Day Reversal trading higher from the open and I am still flat. Ahead of this evening’s Presidential Election initial results I will not chase the Euro higher as I continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower 1.0710/1.0780 with the same 1.0645 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 1.0840. Despite Friday’s reversal I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
It took a while but finally the Dollar sold off to my 103.70 T/P level on my 103.95 short position from last week and I am now flat. The Dollar has resistance from 104.50/105.30 where I will again be a seller with a wider 106.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the market as the DAX never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Given the fact the DAX only trades from 7.00 am to 9.00 pm I am going to stay flat for the next two trading sessions until we get the election noise out of the way. We have had a nice start to November so there is no need to take undue risk. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE Market. The FTSE has support from 8040/8110 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 7965 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8170.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 41700-buy level before rallying over 200 points. This move higher saw my revised 41830 T/P level triggered and I am still flat. The Dow has strong support below from 41200/41450 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with a lower 40995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 41680. Ahead of tomorrow’s Presidential Election I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well yesterday as the market traded lower to my 19920-buy level before rallying to my 20070 T/P level and I am now flat. Ahead of today’s Presidential Election my only interest in buying the NDX is on a further dip lower to 19680/19830 with a wider 19495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 19960. I still do not want to be short the NDXC at this time.
December BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. I am still long at an average rate of 132.10 with the same 132.50 T/P level. I will leave my 130.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday. I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher preferring to wait for a decent correction before buying. Gold has strong support from 2610/2630 where I will be an aggressive buyer on any large dip to my buy area. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2672.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver followed Gold lower on Thursday, hitting my 32.80 buy level. Compared to the May 2011 highs, Gold is higher by 44% while Silver is still trading 30% lower from where we were over 13 years ago. It makes all the sense in the world for me to keep buying Silver on Dips. I still have a large portion of Silver in my pension from the sub $20 mark. There is no doubt it would have had a higher return if it was in Gold. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 31.80 while leaving my 30.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 33.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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