U.S. Equity benchmarks climbed to all-time highs, while Treasuries tumbled as trade optimism fuelled demand for risk assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed Monday to claim its first record since July. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indexes also hit new highs after a report that the U.S. and China are closing in on a partial trade deal after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.78% and the US Dollar advanced versus major peers. In company news, McDonald’s Corp. fell after firing its chief executive and Under Armour Inc. sank after disclosing an accounting probe — both declines weighing heavily on Consumer shares. Banks and industrial firms led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index toward a four-year high after the U.S. Commerce Secretary said tariffs on importing vehicles into the American market might be unnecessary. All major Asian markets advanced. A gauge of Emerging-Market stocks was set for its biggest gain in three weeks.
To mark my 1950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 140 points yesterday and is now ahead by the same amount for November, having made 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Investors are trying to push up stocks for a fifth successive week and add to the 18% gain this year already notched by a global gauge of equities. Earnings continue to roll in around the world. In China, trade data at the end of this week will give details for October against a backdrop of easing tensions on negotiations with U.S. counterparts. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism the U.S. would reach a “phase one” trade deal with China this month and said licenses would be coming “very shortly” for American companies to sell components to Huawei Technologies Co. President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday that a trade deal, if completed, will be signed somewhere in the U.S.
Both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.4% closing at 3078 and 27,462 respectively.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 1% to a four-year high.
Germany’s DAX Index surged 1.4% to a 17-month high.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.3% to the highest in more than four months.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.3%, the biggest gain in five weeks.
The Euro fell 0.4% to $1.1127.
The British Pound fell 0.5% to $1.2884.
The Japanese Yen weakened 0.4% to 108.62 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose seven basis points to 1.78%.
The two-year rate added four basis points to 1.59%.
Germany’s 10-year yield rose three basis points to -0.35%.
Britain’s 10-year yield climbed six basis points to 0.725%.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index jumped 0.5% to a seven-week high.
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 0.6% to $56.52 a barrel. The initial public offering process for Saudi Aramco officially started on Sunday, with the stock likely to begin trading in Riyadh next month. Valuations vary widely.
Gold weakened 0.4% to $1,508.53 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Markit Services PMI at 9.30 am and this is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone PPI. At 1.30 pm we have the latest U.S. Trade Balance, followed by Markit Services PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Non-Manufacturing.
December S&P 500
It is a long time since I changed tact by selling rallies in the Equity Indices. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 3082 sell level before selling off to my 3076 T/P level and I am now flat. We are now what I call the ‘’Blow Off’’ phase of the stock market. A Blow off is a term in technical analysis that refers to a sharp price increase that comes after a long period of sharp price appreciation and is then followed by a fall in prices. A Blow Off is seen as a rally’s last breath and is a highly bearish sign. In such a case a market can go parabolic as we saw with the tulip mania where a tulip was worth more than the price of a house in the Netherlands, just based on the fact that the price should be higher the next day. One word of caution today is the fact the VIX closed 4% higher despite the three main US Indexes closing at new all-time highs. Today I will again look to sell the S&P on any further rally to 3098/3112 with a 3121 wider stop. I am not going to chase the S&P higher from here and I will leave my 3042/3052 buy level unchanged with a 3031 stop.
Late in the New York session the Euro traded lower to my 1.1125 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this position on any further move lower to 1.1085 with a tight 1.1059 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1155 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. As I am already long the Euro I will now raise my Dollar sell level to 97.80/98.20 with a 98.55 stop.
The DAX soared yesterday, closing at a 17-month high. After the market hit my initial 13110 sell level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 13100 and I am now flat. Subsequently the DAX made a high above 13170 before selling into the close. Today I will again look to sell the market from 13205/13285 with a 13335 tight stop.
I am still flat the FTSE which rallied, helped by the 0.5% fall in Sterling. Today I will raise my buy level to 7240/7280 with a 7195 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Finally, the Dow broke and closed above its July 16 previous all-time high of 27398 with a close at 27462. We are now in the ‘’Blow Off’’ phase as described above in my S&P Commentary. The Dow has strong resistance from 27640/24790 and I will be an aggressive seller on any rally to this area with a 27865 stop.
Just after the U.S Markets re-opened last night, the NASDAQ spiked higher to my initial 8240 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this position on any further move higher to 8300 with a 8345 tight stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 8220 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
My BUND plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 171.00 buy level before rallying to my 171.30 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently the Bund sold off as it followed the higher yield in US Treasuries. The Bund has support from 170.20/170.60 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a tight 169.85 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
The boring action in Gold continues and I am still flat. Today I will still be a buyer on any dip lower to 1482/1492 with a 1474 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver and concerned that the market has been unable to push above 18.10. I will now lower my buy level to 17.20/17.60 with a lower 16.85 stop.