U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed on Monday with gains in the small caps (Russell 2000) offset by losses in the S&P and NDX. Most of the weakness occurred around the open with the Indices paring somewhat into the New York afternoon, with little new drivers or data (barring a large fall in US Factory Orders in October) and instead a focus on finding equilibrium after last Friday’s Powell commentary and the ISM manufacturing survey ahead of a busy week of data this week including NFP on Friday. Gold was in particular focus after it spiked to an all-time high at USD 2,151/oz (Reuters data) in early Asian trade on Sunday night, only to reverse to lows of 2,019/oz in the European afternoon in the absence of any fresh catalysts for the massive moves. Bitcoin also saw large moves on Monday and hit a peak of USD 42.2k, a level not seen since April 2022. Treasuries saw large bear-flattening, paring a significant amount of last Friday’s rip higher; note there is no coupon supply this week to digest. There was no new Fed Speak either with the FOMC blackout period now in place ahead of the meeting next Wednesday. There are now c. 125bps of Fed cuts priced across 2024 vs the 130bp+ figures seen late on Friday, but still more than the 115bps priced pre-Powell. Funding is in focus with the latest SOFR fixing spiking higher as of Dec 1st despite month-end already passing, with Barclays forecasting a large decline in RRP usage this week amid a surge in secured funding demand. The U.S. Dollar reversed higher with Bond Yields, while Goldman is calling a low in USD/JPY, heightened by some dovish-leaning BoJ commentary from the weekend. Oil prices were lower and choppy amid continued fallout from OPEC+ in the backdrop of the cooling economic data and volatile Middle East tensions. European Markets also closed mixed following a quiet session. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.04% while Gold ended Monday with a loss of over 2%.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 310 points yesterday and is now down 280 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 0.54% lower at a price of 4569.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 41points lower for a 0.11% loss at a price of 36,204.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.99% lower at a price of 15,839.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.09% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.37% lower at a price of 32,775.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.41% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0830.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.2630.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $147.27.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.35%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 4.19%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points higher 4.29%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.04% lower at $73.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.1% lower at $2028.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K Services PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Services PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Services PMI.
Cash S&P 500
My latest 4588 short S&P position worked well as the S&P sold off to my 4570 T/P level and I am now flat. Given how severely overbought the market is as outlined in yesterday’s commentary, the S&P needs a decent sell-off for me to justify a long position. It is no wonder that the market rallied as hard as it has given the fact that financial conditions have rapidly eased in the last few weeks. I am deliberately not chasing these charts with new longs here as the market is now as overbought as it was oversold in the last week of October. Even though the VIX closed higher by over 3% yesterday to close at 13.06, I need the VIX back to the 17/18 area before we can think about a meaningful long S&P position. The Santa rally historically does not start for two more weeks so there is time for bears to make a temporary stand. Despite the S&P having a small sell-off yesterday, the 14 Day RSI for the $BPSPX rose, closing at one of its most overbought readings ever with an 87 print. The S&P has resistance from 4570/4588 where I will again be a seller with a 4603 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
By the time I posted late yesterday morning, the Euro was trading near the bottom of my buy range. As a result I am now long at a rate of 1.0865. I will add to this position at 1.0795 while lowering my ‘’Closing Stop’’ to 1.0735. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0910. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
Frustratingly, the Dollar missed yesterday’s 103.00 initial buy level by just seven points before rallying to sit hight at 103.65 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 102.50/103.20 with a lower 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 103.65.
Incredibly, the 14-Day RSI closed at 80 last night. This is one of the highest RSI readings in history. Just like the other Indexes I cannot justify a long position at this time. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 16500/16600 with the same 16705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 16360.
I am still flat the FTSE as the market never came close to yesterday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 7540/7620 with a lower 7705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still short from last Friday at a price of 36025. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 36275 while leaving my 36505 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 35890. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX sold off hard yesterday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 15800 average long position. I will leave my 15595 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 15860. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The Bund just missed yesterday’s initial 134.40 sell level before falling 60 points into close. This morning the Bund has opened in my sell range and I am now short in small size at 134.52. I will add to this position at 135.20 with the same 135.75 ‘’Closing’ Stop’. I will have a T/P level on this position at 133.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold had one of the largest Downside Key Day Reversals in history falling from a Sunday night high of 2151, hitting an afternoon low of 2019. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered, for a 2027 average long position. Overnight, Gold rallied to my revised 2040 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Gold has strong support from 2000/2015. This key area was strong resistance for nearly six months and will act as strong support on any initial test. Today, I will be an aggressive buyer on any dip to his area with a lower 1987 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
The aggressive sell-off in Gold, saw Silver hit my buy range. I am now long at a price of 24.80. I will look to add to this position on any further move lower to 24.00 while leaving my 22.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 25.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.