The U.S. Dollar was strong to start the week, although pared some of its notable strength after dovish remarks from Fed’s Waller who noted he leans towards a December cut, which sparked modest upside in stocks/Treasuries and increased money market probabilities of a 25bps cut in December. Prior to this, the Dollar caught a bid on more President-elect Trump tariff threats and a weaker Euro, which saw EUR/USD hit a low sub 1.0475 post-disappointing PMIs and instability in the French government. The Japanese Yen was the distinct G10 outperformer amid its haven properties with continued focus on the anticipated Bank of Japan rate hike this month. On the data footing, U.S. ISM Manufacturing was dubbed as a ‘Goldilocks’ report as it topped expectations on the headline while prices paid fell and employment rose. Indices saw strength with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperforming and further buoyed by the aforementioned Waller remarks, before selling off from highs into settlement amid a chunky market imbalance. Nonetheless, sectors are largely in the red with only Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology in the green. In terms of the biggest stock stories, there are rumours NVDA’s GB200 facing delays, INTC CEO Gelsinger retired, and a SMCI special committee found no evidence of misconduct. The crude complex was choppy but settled with marginal losses as the eventual Dollar strength outweighed strong Chinese data and geopolitical tensions. Lastly, T-Notes were choppy on Monday in the wake of fresh Trump tariff threats, a “Goldilocks” ISM Manufacturing PMI, French political instability and dovish commentary from Fed’s Waller. Ahead Williams is due to give remarks after-hours with the highlights thereafter being Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday and the pivotal NFP on Friday ahead of blackout for the Dec. FOMC meeting. Fed Member Waller (voter) stated he leans towards supporting a cut in December, although added that one could argue a case for skipping a rate cut and that he will be watching data closely to decide. The influential member added that the policy rate is restrictive enough that a December rate cut still allows ample scope to slow the pace of cuts later if needed. On holding, Waller said he will support leaving rates unchanged if data shows forecasts of slowing inflation are wrong. He did add that recent data have raised concerns that inflation progress is stalling meaningfully above 2%. Ahead, Waller stated there is still ‘a ways to go’ in reducing the policy rate to neutral and he expects rate cuts to continue over the next year, while the speed and timing of rate cuts will be determined by economic conditions. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 from 46.5 and above the 47.5 consensus, although within the forecast range of 46.5 to 48.6. New orders returned to expansion, rising from 47.1 to 50.4 while production rose to 46.8 from 46.2. After the Hurricanes in October boosted the supplier deliveries index, that fell in November to 48.7 from 52.0, while inventories rose to 48.1 from 42.6. The components more related to Fed policy, prices and employment, both saw welcome prints with prices falling to 50.3 from 54.8, falling beneath the 52.8, a level that “over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.” Employment, meanwhile, rose to 48.1 from 44.4, but still beneath the 50.3 level, which “over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment”. On the release, ING state that “Election clarity probably saw some delayed orders getting pushed through, but the potential for tariffs and the associated risk of supply chain disruption and reciprocal tariffs placed on US exports means further gains will be limited until we have clarity” Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while a stronger Dollar saw Gold end Monday with a small 0.4% loss.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was loss 135 points on the first trading day of December after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.24% higher at a price of 6047.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 128 points lower for a 0.29% loss at a price of 44,782.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.12% higher at a price of 21,164.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.66% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.91% higher at a price of 39,248.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.70% higher.
The Euro closed 0.73% lower at $1.0496.
The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at 1.2653.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.05% closing at $149.57.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower 2.04%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 4.21%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.18%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.19% higher at $68.13 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.5% lower at $2639 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 3.00 pm we have U.S. Jolts Job Openings. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Goolsbee at 3.45 pm.
Cash S&P 500
With share buybacks at record levels and not due to end until December 20, performance anxiety by many fund managers lagging the Indices continues to drive the S&P higher. Tax considerations will keep many people from wanting to lock in gains this year and rather wait until 2025 with the prospect of lower taxes coming with the new Trump Administration. With Retail continuing to pile in ‘’Full Greed Mode’’ it is no wonder that the S&P again closed at a new all-time high. However, negative divergences continue to build which is no surprise with a market Cap to GDP at an unstainable 207%. Internally the market was weak yesterday as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed at +71 down from last Friday’s +105 print. This latest move higher saw my sell range triggered for a now 6047 small, short position. I will continue to look to add to this trade on any further move higher to 6067 with a now higher 6081 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 6035. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro gave back a lot of its gains from Thursday yesterday driven by the weakness of the Euro-Zone Economies which ultimately will force the ECB to cut rates by 50 Basis Points when it meets this month. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.0690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied over 0.70% yesterday and I am still flat. This morning the Dollar is trading at a price of 106.45. I will now raise my buy level to 105.00/105.80 with a higher 104.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
Wrong! I am just baffled by the relentless rally in the DAX to new highs. Despite the worsening Political and Economic situation in Germany the DAX has rallied over 800 points since the lows at 19100 last Wednesday. Even a higher inflation print could not stop the buying as the prospect of a 50 Basis Point cut in Interest Rates propels the market higher. The DAX traded the whole of my sell range for a 19770 average short position before stopping me out of this position at 19905 and I am still flat. The DAX has further resistance from 20050/20150 where I will again be a seller with a higher and wider 20205 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 19960. I no longer want to be long the DAX at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
I am still looking to buy the FTSE on dips but for the second consecutive trading session my buy level fell short of the intra-day low and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 8190/8260 with a higher 8115 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the FTSE been short-term overbought I have no interest in selling the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded heavy yesterday, and I am still flat as the market never came close to my sell range. The Dow has left an ‘’Open Gap’’ from November 22 at 44300 which may be filled before we move higher. As a result, I will now raise my buy level to 44100/44350 with a higher 43895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a small seller from 45150/45450 with the same tight 45605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44970. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 44530.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX rallied to a new intraday extreme at 21,201 yesterday afternoon before having a small retracement into the close. This move higher saw my initial 21200 sell level triggered. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 21360 while leaving my 21505 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 21120. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund rallied a further 50 points yesterday, driving the yield to a new low for this move at 2.04%. I am still short the Bund from Friday at a price of 134.90 with the same 136.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Today, I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 135.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
A stronger Dollar saw Gold give back some of Friday’s small gains. I am still flat. As I am still long Silver, I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 2575/2592 with the same 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2608.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. However, this morning Silver is trading 1.5% higher at a price of 30.98. I am still long at an average price of 32.20 with the same 32.60 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will also leave my 29.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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