U.S. stocks reclaimed an all-time high after three months, with the final leg coming on rising optimism for a trade deal with China. Treasuries slumped at the start of a week packed with earnings and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The S&P 500 took out its July record after President Donald Trump said the U.S. is ahead of schedule to sign part of the trade deal. Microsoft jumped to a after winning a Pentagon contract, while AT&T climbed following a board shuffle. Tiffany surged after LVMH said it held discussions with the jeweler. PG&E plunged on liability risk from California wildfires. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose even as banks slipped after HSBC’s disappointing earnings. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a six-week high. In the U.K., the Pound steadied versus the Euro after the European Union agreed to a Brexit deadline extension, easing the risk of leaving the bloc without a deal on Oct. 31. European Bonds edged lower, while Gilts were steady. An Asia-Pacific equities benchmark rose for the fifth gain in six sessions. Shares increased in Shanghai, with blockchain-related stocks climbing after Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed the technology.
Elsewhere, Argentine Bonds fell after opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez secured victory in Sunday’s presidential election, with business-friendly incumbent Mauricio Macri conceding. WTI crude oil slipped after the biggest weekly advance in more than a month. Bitcoin jumped as much as 16% from Friday, before paring its gain by about one-half.
To mark my 1925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 32 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1333 points for October, having made 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The week greeted investors with several doses of positive news, as the signs of progress joined with expectations for further monetary stimulus from the Fed after its Wednesday meeting. Corporate earnings continue to roll in with results topping estimates at a solid clip.
The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.6% to close at 3039.
The Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.0% to a new record.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.3%.
The U.K.‘s FTSE 100 Index decreased 0.1%.
The MSCI All-Country World Index gained 0.1%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index jumped 0.5%.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.1%.
The Euro climbed 0.2% to $1.1101.
The British Pound rose 0.3% to close at $ 1.2864.
The Japanese Yen was little changed at 108.72 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 1.86%.
The yield on two-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 1.66%.
Britain’s 10-year yield decreased one basis point to 0.673%.
Japan’s 10-year yield climbed one basis point to -0.122%.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $56.77 a barrel.
Gold Futures decreased 0.8% to $1,493.70 an ounce.
Palladium rose above $1,800 an ounce for the first time.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Mortgage Approvals. Net Lending to Individuals and Money Supply at 9.30 am. This is followed at 9.50 am by a speech from Bundesbank President Weidmann. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have U.S Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales.
December S&P 500
Frustratingly the S&P just missed my buy level on Friday before rallying to a new intra-day and all-time high above 3042 yesterday morning. With the Dow still trading nearly 300 points below its July all-time high we have a large negative divergence between both Indices. As long as the Dow does not break the July high then the likelihood of a sharp sell-off in the Market is significant. The S&P has strong resistance from 3055/3068 and I will be a seller in this area with a 3076 tight stop. I will also raise my buy level to 3015/3025 with a 3005 stop.
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.1075 buy level before rallying to my revised 1.1095 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Euro on any dip lower to 1.1030/1.1070 with a 1.0985 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
December Dollar index
The Dollar is rallying as expected without me being able to get a long position on board and I am still flat. The Dollar has strong resistance from 97.85/98.25 and I will be a seller in this area with a 98.55 stop.
I am still flat the DAX and today I will again raise my buy level to 12750/12810 with a 12695 stop. Despite the DAX trading overbought I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
I am still flat the FTSE and today I will leave my 7205/7245 buy level unchanged with the same 7160 stop. Even though the FTSE is overbought I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
As mentioned above in my S&P commentary as long as the Dow does not break its July high we have negative divergence between both the S&P and NASDAQ and the Dow. To add to my concern the McClellan actually fell seven points to close at just +61. I am still flat the Dow as the market never came close to my buy level on Friday. Today I will raise my buy level to 26780/26930 with a higher 26695 stop.
The NASDAQ has exploded to the upside over the past week trading over 8100 as I go to press. The market is now severely overbought with strong resistance above here from 8260/8320 where I will be a seller with an 8375 stop.
Late on Friday the Bund traded lower to my 171.15 buy level. As I had no interest in holding this position over the weekend I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at my revised 171.27 T/P level and I am now flat. Yesterday the Bund fell 60 points and today I will again look to buy the Bund on any further move lower to 170.00/170.40 with a 169.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to trade up one day and down the next with little net change over the past few weeks. I am still flat and today I will lower my buy level slightly to 1470/1480 with a lower 1461 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has been stronger than Gold over the past 10 days. I am still flat and I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 17.10/17.50 with a lower 16.70 stop.