U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session slightly lower after a quiet day’s trading that saw plenty of movement within a tight range. Over the course of the day, Indexes were largely choppy in the wake of last week’s gains and reports suggesting the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by another 0.75% in July. This volatility was further fuelled by data showing the U.S. economy – and inflation – may be starting to ease, as the University of Michigan revised its June inflation expectations lower from 3.3% to 3.1% for the next five to 10 years. Meanwhile, yesterday’s increase in Durable-Goods Orders for May was more than anticipated. U.S. Pending-Home Sales posted a surprise gain as well. All these factors combined are projected to help some equities see improved support over the near term. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed higher. The Group of Seven leaders were said to work on a plan to limit the price paid for the import of Russian oil while also moving to ban the import of gold produced there. European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said negotiations with Iran on the 2015 nuclear accord could restart soon, although a deal remained far from certain. European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno said more details on its yield-stabilisation plans will soon be forthcoming, allowing monetary policy to work better. Russia defaulted on its foreign currency sovereign debt after the country missed the extended deadline for making $100 million worth of interest payments due May 27. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China added the most money to the financial system since March, injecting roughly $1.4 billion in funds via Reverse Repurchase Operations. The Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from its most recent policy meeting showed policymakers remain intent on easy-money policies until they see sustained wage gains. South Korean Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho said inflation growth could hit 6% in the June to August time frame, supporting more interest rate hikes. The release of China’s official composite purchasing manager’s index (“PMI”) data later this week will unveil a look into the economic recovery following the removal of COVID-19 restrictions. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.1% on news that U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports may hit an all-time high, while Gold fell 0.44% on little news.

To mark my 2575th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 275 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3131 points for June after making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

 

Equities

 

The S&P 500 closed 0.3% lower at a price of 3900.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 62 points lower for a 0.2% loss at a price of 31,438.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.81% lower at a price of 12,008.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.44% higher at a price of 26,990

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.

The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0583.

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2268.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $135.23.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed nine basis points higher at 1.54%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed nine basis points higher at 2.39%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 3.17%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.1% higher at $109.47 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.44% lower at $1821.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GFK Consumer Confidence which came in at -27.4 versus -27.6 expected. We have plenty of ECB Officials speaking today: Lagarde, Lane, Elderson and Panetta at 9.00 am, 9.30 am, 10.30 am and 12.00 pm respectively. This is followed by U.S. Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm, while at 2.00 pm we have the Housing Price Index. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

Cash S&P 500

Although the S&P traded in a narrow range compared to the volatility over the last few sessions, my S&P plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my sell range for a 3934 average short position before trading lower to my 3924 revised T/P level. Overnight, the S&P hit my initial 3882 buy level before rallying to sit at 3920 this morning. This move higher saw my 3898 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. Yesterday’s sell-off helped correct the short-term overbought condition resulting from Friday’s explosive move higher that had continued yesterday morning. Remember we are in a seasonally strong period ahead of Quarter-End on Friday and the 4th July Holiday next Monday. Volumes will decrease as the week moves on as most traders will be heading on vacation. I am still looking for a re-test of the 4000 level over the coming days. The S&P has support from 3878/3895 where I will again be a buyer with a 3859 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 3950/3970 where I will be a small seller with a 3985 stop.

EUR/USD

I am still flat the Euro as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0490/1.0550 with a higher 1.0445 tight stop.

March Dollar Index

I am still flat as the Dollar never came close to yesterday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 104.10/104.60 with a tight 105.05 stop.

Cash DAX

I am still flat the DAX. I still do not want to chase the market higher as the DAX continues to underperform the other European Indexes. The DAX has support from 12990/13090 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 12935 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13150. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE rallied yesterday, trading at 7300 this morning. I am still flat. We have resistance from 7370/7430 where I will be a small seller with a 7465 stop. The FTSE has support from 7160/7220 where I will be a small buyer with a 7115 tight stop.

Dow Rolling Contract

Overnight, the Dow missed my initial 31200 buy level with a 31325 low print before following the S&P higher and is now trading at 31580. I will now raise my buy level to 31000/31300 with a tight 30795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite U.S Indexes closing lower yesterday the McClellan Oscillator improved further, closing last night at +121, for a seventh consecutive rise, while the Fear and Greed Index improved slightly, showing a reading of ‘’Fear’’ with a 29 print.

Cash NASDAQ 100

No Change. The NDX traded in a narrow 200-point range since I posted 24 hours ago. The NDX has support from 11850/12000 where I will be a small buyer with a 11735 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12180. Meanwhile, I am still long at 14327, as I look for a further rally to 12900 to exit this position that I have now owned since April.

September BUND

The Bund got hit hard yesterday, trading the whole of my buy range for a 146.50 average long position. We bounced to a high so far this morning at 1467.77, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 146.65 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Given the level of debt in the Euro-Zone, the ECB cannot afford for Bond Yields to rise further, hence last week’s further intervention. The Bund has support from 144.60/145.30 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 143.95 wider stop.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change. I will not chase the price of Gold higher, leaving 1798/1810 buy level unchanged with the same 1789 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

Overnight, Silver traded lower to my 21.10 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 21.40 T/P level. I will add to this position at 20.50 while leaving my 199.95 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.