The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were little changed on Monday while the Russell 2000 saw gains in what was a quiet session from a catalyst perspective. Tech was mixed with the mega-cap names, including Nvidia (NVDA), generally struggling/flat-lining, specifically GOOGL, although there was notable strength elsewhere in the sector (PANW, SMCI, MU…). New Home Sales, which came in beneath expectations, were the only major US data point on Monday, although Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders will be in focus on Tuesday. Treasuries unwound Friday’s long end squeeze in the face of fresh Treasury and corporate supply; the 2yr and 5r auctions were underwhelming ahead of the 7yr on this evening. The Dollar was slightly lower on the session, however, with the Euro outperforming amid EGBs seeing a greater relative magnitude of loss than USTs despite a lack of fresh drivers, with the tape for Bunds still vulnerable after last week’s heavy losses. Sell side models are also pointing to Dollar selling for month end too. Bitcoin surged further, coming within touching distance of USD 55k. Oil prices rallied through the NY session, bouncing off multi-week lows, in lack of an obvious catalyst as desks point to supply risk from ongoing geopolitical events. New Home Sales in January rose 1.5% to 661k (prev. 651k) but was shy of the expected 680k, while the supply of new homes was unchanged at 8.3 months’ worths. Oxford Economics states that the smaller-than-expected rise is not concerning as weather likely dampened sales, particularly in the South. Meanwhile, OxEco adds, “the outlook remains cautiously optimistic as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is off its recent peak, job growth is strong, and inventories are not problematic for the new-home market.” Nonetheless, the consultancy adds that the positive news is that January new-home sales are above their Q4 average, a positive for GDP growth in the first three months of this year. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.40% while Gold again closed flat.

To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 35 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1606 points for February after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 


The S&P 500 closed 0.38% lower at a price of 5069.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 62 points lower for a 0.16% loss at a price of 39,069.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.02% lower at a price of 17,933.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.37% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.35% higher at a price of 39,233 – A New All-Time High.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.15% lower.

The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0851.

The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2684.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $150.73.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 2.44%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 4.10%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 4.30%.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.40% higher at $77.49 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.1% lower at $2033.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am followed by Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm. This is followed by the Housing Price Index at 2.00 pm and a speech from Fed Member Barr at 2.05 pm. Finally, we have Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm.

Cash S&P 500

The recent Treasury Auctions have been awful which is no surprise given the fact that the U.S. has a funding requirement of $10 trillion. Yes, a massive $10 trillion. A deficit of at least $1.6 trillion again this year with $330bn in debt added again in the first seven weeks of 2024 and about $8.9 trillion in debt maturities in the next 12 months that need to be refinanced. This is a huge amount of supply that must be met by demand. It will of course be met, the question what impact would be on Bond Yields that could cause volatility in the markets. Yet rising Yields have so far not mattered this year as markets have ignored everything. The correlation between the Dollar and Yields and the S&P has completely broken down. Divergences continue to suggest the market has risk for a sizeable drawdown. While seasonally the last week in February, the first week in March tends to be strong before seasonality turns week around March 9. How big a drop can we expect if the markets adhere to seasonality. The 50 Day Moving Average comes in at 4856 while the January 2022 high is at 4800. My own guess is that unless something dramatic happens this will be the extent of the sell-off as recent history tells us that Treasury Secretary will not allow a strong selloff. Unfortunately, the S&P just missed my 5105-sell level with a 5097 high print before selling off 30 Handles into the close. The S&P has support below from 5020/5038 where I will be a buyer with a 5007 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my sell level to 5085/5103 with a lower 5117 ‘’Closing Stop’’.


No Change. I am still flat the Euro as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0700/1.0770 with the same 1.0635 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I do not want to chase the Euro higher at this time.

Dollar Index

No Change. I am still flat the Dollar. I will continue to be a seller from 104.35/105.05 with the same 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.

Cash DAX

No Change. What happens when the head of the Bundesbank warns of an impending recession in Germany – new all-time highs for the DAX. I have said many times that ‘’nothing matters’’. Better earnings report from a U.S. Stock, Nvidia sends both the Nikkei and DAX to new all-time highs on Thursday despite both economies either in and close to recession highlights the madness of these markets.  I just cannot be a buyer of the DAX at these levels while the price action is telling you not to be short. I am going to stay flat the DAX until I get a better edge. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.


I am still flat the FTSE. With Gilt Yields rising yesterday, I will now lower my FTSE buy level to 7560/7630 with a lower 7495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7675. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

I am still flat the Dow. Today, I will again raise my buy level to 38450/38700 with a higher 38295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash NASDAQ 100

My NDX plan worked well as the NDX rallied to my 18010-sell level before selling off 100 points into the close. This move lower saw my revised 17975 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. There is no doubt the 18000 is now key resistance as the five times this level has been breached it has been met by strong selling. Given the number of negative divergences, I have no interest in being long the NDX at this time. Today, I will again be a seller from 18010/18160 with the same 18255 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

March BUND

Higher Treasury Yields saw the Bund trade lower to my 132.65 buy level yesterday. I am still long with a now lower 133.10 T/P level. I will add to this position at 131.95 with a now lower 131.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

I am still flat. Gold continues to trade in narrow ranges. Today, I will still to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1995/2010 with the same 1979 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2018.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. The boring price action shows no sign of ending unfortunately. I still believe in the bull case for this precious metal. I will continue to hold my 24.40 average long position with no stop or T/P level for now. This morning, Silver is trading slightly lower at a price of 22.56. I will continue to look to add to my existing long position on any further move lower to 21.50. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.