Following a quiet trading session, a late rally saw U.S. Equity Markets close higher led by the 0.28% gain in the Dow. Markets rose as investors anticipate major earnings and economic news later this week. Wall Street is growing more certain that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 0.75%. There is growing concern that Thursday’s second-quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) will show another contraction. This would officially indicate that the country is in a recession. Pessimism across Wall Street is at historical lows, paving the way for markets to weather a potentially underwhelming earnings week. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed mixed. The German DAX finished lower amid the news that the Nord Stream gas supply would be capped at 20% capacity due to technical issues. The banking sector led markets with rare optimism surrounding the recent turmoil highlighted in Italy. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) member Robert Holzmann said that it may be necessary to accept a moderate recession for inflation to be reigned in. This comes after the ECB raised rates for the first time in over a decade last week, and points to a ramping up of rate hikes in Europe. In Asia, Markets finished lower Monday. Concerns about a global recession continue to weigh on all Indexes. A weak tech sector led the way in both Hong Kong and Shanghai. Beijing is reportedly setting up a property bail-out for property developers that could be worth up to $44 billion. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is set to visit Taiwan despite China’s warnings of strong economic retaliatory measures. Singapore’s June inflation rate topped 14-year highs. Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida faces mounting pressure for increased stimulus as the country’s output continues to fall. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.85% higher while Gold fell 0.46%.

To mark my 2600th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 70 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3709 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3371 points June, while making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

 

Equities

 

The S&P 500 closed 013% higher at a price of 3966.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points higher for a 0.28% gain at a price of 31,990.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.55% lower at a price of 12,328.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.2% higher.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.16% lower at a price of 27,655.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.

The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0215.

The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2070.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $136.71.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 1.02%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 1.93%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 2.80%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.85% higher at $98.88 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.46% lower at $1719.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 2.00 pm we have U.S. Housing Price Index. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

Cash S&P 500

The S&P traded in a narrow range yesterday before having a small rally into the close. The continued lack of any follow through to the downside is creating some self-doubt in the Bears. What if June’s 3635 low turns out to be the low for the year? Of course, the danger here that we are seeing the start of a major ‘’Bull Trap’’ that tops out anywhere between 4200 and 4400 which would make the Bear Market sell case more enticing. So far, any sell-off both on Friday and yesterday are seeing the 5 EMA defended. The next four sessions will tell a lot starting with earnings from both Google and Microsoft after the close this evening, ahead of the Fed rate announcement and Powell press conference tomorrow. The S&P made a morning high at 3985 allowing me to cover Friday’s 3958 average long position at 3965 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, the S&P has support from 3923/3940 where I will be a buyer with a tight 3909 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The 50 Day MA is at 3920 which should continue to attract buying on any test. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.

EUR/USD

No Change. The Euro traded in a tiny range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0090/1.0160 with the same 1.0035 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

March Dollar Index

I am still flat the Dollar. It looks more and more likely that last week’s 109.50 high could be meaningful given the 3% fall in the Dollar since. I will now lower my sell level to 106.90/107.50 with a tight 108.05 stop.

Cash DAX

The DAX continues to trade heavy which is no surprise given the background with the gas supply from Russia. The DAX has strong support from 12930/13020 and I will lower my buy level to this range with a 12865 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE continues to absorb the ongoing political mess in the U.K. and is the strongest of the European Indexes over the past week. I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 7370/7430 with a higher 7475 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7330.

Dow Rolling Contract

July has worked well for my Platinum Service as the idea of buying every dip has paid dividends. However, the ensuing rally has run its course for now given the sell-off since Friday’s high, making it trickier to trade. The market continues to need relief on Inflation and PCE data. If we see this expected relief in September then the market will continue to squeeze short positions and under-exposed long positions hard. Add to the mix the scenario that the Fed goes on ‘’Hold’’ ahead of the Mid-Term Elections all hell could break loose to the upside. I am still flat the Dow. I am reluctant to chase the market higher from here, leaving 31400/31650 buy level unchanged with the same 31295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The ‘’Fear & Greed Index fell slightly again last night, closing at 38 which is still a reading of ‘’Fear’’. A 50 print is neutral and when this happens it should propel the Dow higher given the level of bearishness amongst traders and Fund Managers, while the McClellan Oscillator is still strong as shown by the latest +170 close.

Cash NASDAQ 100

The NDX was weak yesterday as traders are nervous ahead of the sleuth of tech earnings this week. However, lower Bond Yields should help the NDX and is the main reason that I continue to hold my 14327 long position from April. I will leave my exit level on this position unchanged at 12750. Given the points made this month, my plan is to try and be flat the NDX ahead of Friday’s Month-End. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

September BUND

The Bund traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. We have resistance from 155.40/156.10 where I will be a small seller with a 156.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Bund has short-term support from 152.50/153.20 where I will be a small buyer with a 151.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1689/1704 with a tight 1675 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

Silver traded lower to my 18.35 buy level late yesterday. I am still long with a now lower 18.80 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position at 17.65 while leaving my 16.95 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.