U.S. Equity Markets bounced around on what turned out to one of the most volatile trading sessions for the year-to-date, finishing the day mixed, as the Dow closed 0.12% lower while the NASDAQ after a huge intra-day reversal, closed higher by 0.87%. Vaccine news was mixed. In the morning, Moderna said its vaccine is being adapted to face current and future COVID-19 problems. It stated the vaccine has shown an ability to fight against emerging strains of COVID-19 in recent studies. But it said that the vaccine was less effective against the South African strain, though still effective enough to prevent infection. California lifted stay at home orders for all regions, in a sign that the state had gotten case numbers and hospitalisations under control. On the stimulus front, Senator Bernie Sanders said the President’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package would be passed via the reconciliation process if it can’t garner enough bipartisan support. Earnings season remained a tailwind for the bulls, with 86% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations. And now all eyes turn to Big Tech earnings later this week, as well as the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. European Markets got hit hard yesterday. AstraZeneca was said to inform European Union officials it won’t be able to deliver as many COVID-19 vaccine doses in the coming months as it had hoped, potentially delaying recovery plans. The EU then said it had planned emergency talks with the company to discuss the vaccine rollout. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Olli Rehn said using yield-curve control is a “nonsensical” approach as a means of creating favorable financing conditions. British Health Minister Matt Hancock warned current Coronavirus vaccines may be less effective against new strains, warranting more restrictive border controls. Germany’s IFO business climate index fell more than expected in January, as delays to vaccine rollouts and extended lockdown orders hurt business confidence. Elsewhere, Bitcoin fell 0.73% despite Marathon Patent Group disclosing that it had purchased $150 million in bitcoin, while Gold closed 0.11% lower on Dollar strength.

To mark my 2225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 417 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1784 points for January, having finished December with a gain of 2273 points, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

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Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.36% higher at a price of 3855.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points lower for a 0.12% loss at a price of 30,960.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.87% higher at a price of 13483.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.9% lower.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.67% higher at a price of 28,822.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.

The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.2140.

The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at $1.3676.

The Japanese Yen closed unchanged at 103.78 per dollar.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at -0.55%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 0.26%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points lower at 1.03%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.94% higher at $52.55 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.11% lower at $1,846.20 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K Average Earnings and Unemployment at 7.00 am. This is followed by U.S Housing Price Index at 2.00 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have U.S Consumer Confidence.

March S&P 500

The S&P tested the 3810 key support level with a low of 3788.50 before rallying and recover all intra-day losses, to close at yet another new all-time high. My ‘’Closing Stop’’ again worked well in this scenario but you had to be brave. After my 3819 average long position was filled, I was 30 Handles offside before the market recovered to hit my 3836 T/P level and I am now flat. Sooner or later one of these aggressive sell-offs is not coming back but as long as we keep bouncing off 3800 I will continue to buy the dip. Today, my buy level will be from 3810/3825 with a 3799 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile I will leave my 3865/3880 sell level unchanged with the same 3891 stop.

EUR/USD

After the Euro traded lower to my 1.2120 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 1.2137 and I am now flat. I will continue to buy the dip as long as we do not break and close below 1.2050. Today, my buy level will be from 1.2060/1.2110 with a 1.2012 stop.

March Dollar Index

My latest 90.20 long Dollar position worked well with the market trading higher to my 90.40 T/P level and I am now flat. With the Dollar still severely oversold I will continue to be a buyer on dips. The Dollar has support from 89.60/90.10 where I will be a buyer with a 89.25 tight stop.

March DAX

The DAX traded the whole of my buy range for a 13715 average long position. I am still long with a now lower 13575 stop while lowering my T/P level to 13745. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

March FTSE

After the FTSE traded lower to my 6585 buy level we saw a small rally which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 6615 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has support below the market from 6510/6560 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 6475 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6600.

Dow Rolling Contract

My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 30820 buy level before bouncing 150 points and I used this rally to cover this position at my revised 30900 T/P level and I am now flat. Just when it looked the Dow would break and close below 30600, we saw a quick 350 point rally into the close. Today, I will be a buyer from 30550/30730 with a 30395 tight stop. I no longer want to be short the Dow at this time despite the heavy price action.

March NASDAQ

Wow what a day for the NASDAQ. Earlier the market traded the whole of my sell range for a 13510 average short position before falling to an intra-day low at 13189, allowing me to cover this short position at my revised 13410 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently the NASDAQ rallied to close at a new all-time high. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 13570/13670 where I will again be a seller with a 13765 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 13495.

March BUND

Frustrating the Bund just missed my 176.95 buy level before rallying 70 points on the weaker European Equities. As mentioned last week, you cannot be short the Bund as the ECB will not allow Yields to rise. Today, I will raise my buy level to 176.90/177.35 with a 176.55 stop.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change as I am still a buyer from 1812/1828 with the same 1799 stop.

Silver Rolling Contract

I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 24.75/25.25 with a 24.35 stop.