U.S. Equity Markets declined to start the week, led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed lower by 2.63% as the S&P fell for the fifth straight session. Markets declined in the morning, before recovering throughout the day. Rising bond yields were a key reason for the early morning decline. But other than that, there were few drivers for the sell-off. Vaccine news was positive. The Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine demonstrated it was roughly 90% effective in preventing laboratory-confirmed infections, according to a study by Israel’s Health Ministry. And an early report out of the U.K. showed a steep drop in infections once the vaccine rollout began. Stimulus was also a positive, as the House of Representatives was said to be prepared to pass the $1.9 trillion support package by the end of the week. Markets lost steam heading into the close on little news. European Markets also closed lower. German Health Minister Jens Spahn said the country must lower the rate of coronavirus infections further before the government can consider easing social-distancing restrictions. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson laid out a plan for reopening the country, with a return to “normal” coming in June. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the U.S. will not be able to rejoin the 2015 nuclear accord unless it first lifted sanctions. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 26.5 million through yesterday, with a daily average of 748,000 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil gained 4% as Goldman Sachs said the commodity could reach $72 per barrel by the summer, while Gold rose 1.76% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 49 points yesterday and is still ahead by 2077 points for February, having finished January with a gain of 2077 points, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 0.77% lower at a price of 3876.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 27 points higher for a 0.09% gain at a price of 31,521.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.63% lower at a price of 13,223.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.46% higher at a price of 30,156.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.2154.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at $1.4071.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.2% lower at 105.19 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at -0.34%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.69%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.32%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4% higher at $60.58 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.76% higher at $1,809.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK January Jobless Claims which fell 20K versus +7K expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone CPI and this is followed at 2.00 pm by U.S Housing Price Index. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony before Congress.
March S&P 500
It took many hours but finally the S&P closed the ‘’Open Gap’’ from Friday’s Chicago close as the market rallied to my 3889 T/P level on my 3880 average long position. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again overnight at 3871 before rallying to my 3888 T/P level and I am still flat. We are seeing so much divergence in the US Indices with the NASDAQ falling 2.63% yesterday while the Dow closed positive. Ahead of Powell’s Testimony this afternoon I would expect the S&P to hold in. I will be a buyer from 3858/3873 with a 3845 stop. I still believe that we will have one more rally into March before we finally see a more meaningful correction. My only interest in selling the S&P is from 3935/3950 with a 3968 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Frustratingly, the Euro missed my 1.2090 T/P level by one point before stopping out of this position at 1.2152 and I am still flat. The rebound in both Gold and Silver is telling us that the Dollar will weaken. As a result, I will be an aggressive buyer of the Euro from 1.2105/1.2145 with a 1.2065 stop.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar fell shy of my 90.70 sell level before falling 60 points to sit at 89.95 this morning. The 90.00 level is key as a break and close below here this evening is a sell level. I will now lower my sell range to 90.35/90.75 with a 91.10 stop.
The DAX led the Global Indices higher yesterday as the key 13800 support level held. This morning we are trading 200 points higher at 13995. The DAX has resistance from 14120/14200 where I will be a small seller with a 14265 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 13745/13825 with a 13665 stop.
The rest of Europe can only look on with envy at the way the UK has handled the vaccination rollout. The UK has now vaccinated over 18 million people and life is expected to return to normal in June. Boris Johnson hired an ex Hedge Fund Lady to oversee the vaccination programme. She made sure the UK bought enough vaccines initially and had test centres ready for the roll-out. Even thought the UK paid a higher price for the vaccines, it will save them a fortune in the long-run as the economy begins to open in early April. Yesterday, the FTSE rallied to my 6555 T/P level on my latest 6520 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again look to buy the FTSE from 6510/6555 with a 6465 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6610.
Dow Rolling Contract
Despite the negative price action in both the NASDAQ and S&P, the Dow made a new intra-day high of 31653 yesterday afternoon before having a small sell-off into the close. As long as the Dow continues to make new all-time highs it is hard to see the rest of the market have much of a correction. Frustratingly, the Dow missed my 31230 buy level by 15 points before having this 400 point rally and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 31250/31420 with a 31125 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
The NASDAQ fell over 400 points yesterday, hitting its lowest level since February 1. This move lower saw me stopped out of my 13475 long position at 13281 and I am still flat. The NASDAQ has strong support from 13210/13110 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with a 13035 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13335.
I did not have much luck yesterday as the Bund rallied shortly after I was stopped out of Friday’s long position at 173.75 and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 173.15/173.75 with a 172.85 higher stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 174.21.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite Bitcoin falling 15% yesterday, both Gold and Silver rallied with Gold now trading at 1810. I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1782/1795 with a 1769 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver rallied 4% yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 27.00/27.60 with a higher 26.55 stop.