U.S. equities eked out a gain in light volume yesterday as investors prepared for a deluge of earnings news. Oil jumped after the White House said it will scrap waivers that allow the purchase of some Iranian crude. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1 percent even as most members of the gauge fell, and closed about 1 percent below its all-time high. Energy shares rallied alongside crude prices, while real-estate companies slumped after sales of previously owned U.S. homes eased more than forecast in March. The US Dollar was steady as 10-year Treasury yields inched up. With corporate reporting season in full flow, investors are looking for clues as to whether the dovish policy pivot from the world’s central banks can shore up global growth enough to outweigh any deterioration in earnings. The stock market appears to be saying yes for now, with the U.S. equity benchmark near a record high and an MSCI gauge of global equities on track for a fourth month of gains. In Sri Lanka, bonds and the rupee slipped after Sunday’s terrorist attacks. The Easter holiday weekend shut trading in much of Europe. Bloomberg’s commodity index climbed as West Texas oil rose to the highest since October.
To mark my 1825th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 48 points yesterday and is now ahead by 661 points for April, having made 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1 percent at the close of trading in New York at 2911 and is now less than 1% from its all-time closing high at 2937. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased 1.7 percent, the largest dip in more than three weeks, while the MSCI Emerging Market Index declined 0.3 percent. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks and bonds fell as investors wagered future stimulus will be limited, while shares in Japan finished slightly higher.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed since we marked prices last Thursday morning as the boring sideways action continues. The Euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.1259 where it also opened in Europe this morning. Sterling is weaker following weekend grumblings about trouble within the Conservative Party. The FT is now reporting that the UK Conservative activists are looking to hold an emergency summit with intentions to propose a vote of no-confidence in the UK PM May. Cable is opening lower in London this morning at $1.12975.
The yield on two-year Treasuries rose less than one basis point to 2.387 percent while the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 2.59 percent. With European Markets closed since Thursday the Bund is opening unchanged this morning.
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 2.7 percent to $65.70 a barrel. That was up $1.70 or 2.66%. Today is the last day for the May contract. Tomorrow the June contract will be the front contract for the pair. Copper sank 0.5 percent to $2.9115 a pound. A run to the highs saw the price of Bitcoin closing up $81 at $5318. This morning Bitcoin is trading 3% higher at $5475 having reached an overnight high at $5600. Bitcoin has strong support at $5200 and a close above this level for a couple of more days will signal much higher prices. Meanwhile both Gold and Silver closed unchanged on thin volumes.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the UK as traders return to their desks after the Easter break. At 3.00 pm we have US New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Also at 3.00 pm we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence.
June S&P 500
The S&P has traded in a narrow 20 Handle range since my last commentary on Thursday. I am still flat with yesterday’s trading session marking the lowest volume for the year to date. The S&P is within touching distance of the 2922 April 17 high for the year and a break of this level should see a test of the 2940 all-time high from last September. Today I will raise my sell level slightly to 2930/2940 with a 2948 stop. I will also raise my buy level to 2892/2900 with a 2884 stop.
In all my years of trading I have never seen so little movement as we are witnessing in EUR/USD. This currency pair has traded within a 120 point range for the past two months. Frustrating on Thursday the Euro twice missed my 1.1225 buy level by one pip before rallying on each occasion and I am still flat. Today I will lower my buy range slightly to 1.1175/1.1215 with a 1.1145 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
Late in Thursday’s session the Dollar traded higher to my 97.10 sell level. As I did not want to have a short position on board over the Easter break I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at my revised 96.98 T/P level and I am still flat. Today I will again look to sell the Dollar from 97.25/97.65 with a 97.95 stop.
Despite the small sell-off in the US Indices the DAX closed at a new high for the year and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level to 12080/12150 with a 12025 stop. Remember a break and close over the key 12250/12400 resistance level is bullish for much higher prices.
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 7440 sell level before selling off to my 7410 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the FTSE on any further rally to 7470/7510 with a 7545 tight stop. Given how severely overbought the FTSE is trading I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract.
I am still flat the Dow and today I will now raise my buy level to 26180/26350 with a higher 26070 stop.
The Daily Sentiment Index for the NASDAQ is back at 91% bulls. The entire period from March 21 to the present appears similar to the period preceding the January 26, 2018 high when multiple 90% + days preceded a mini-spike to the NASDAQ’s high. The day of the top, the NASDAQ gaped higher at the open and ended the day at the high. The next day, January 29, the market gaped lower at the open and 10 days later, the Index was down 12%. So we have to be careful and watch for a break lower in any of the US Indices especially with the VIX closing with a 12 Handle for the last few trading sessions. Today I will look to sell the market from 7770/7830 with a 7860 tight stop. I no longer want to be a buyer of the NASDAQ at this time.
After the Bund traded higher to my 165.23 sell level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 165.17 ahead of the Easter Break and I am now flat. This morning the Bund is trading lower at 164.99 and if you have not covered your position I would exit here. Today I will again look to sell the Bund on any further rally to 165.40/165.70 with a 166.05 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as the lower/sideways action in Gold continues. I will leave my 1255/1263 buy level unchanged with the same 1247 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long at 15.15 with the same 15.25 stop and 14.55 stop. I will still look to add to my exiting long position at a price of 14.80 and if any of the above levels are filled I will be back with an update for my Platinum Members.