European Markets rallied yesterday, closing on the highs of the day with an average gain of 1.4%. This has led to a 1.25% gain the S&P Futures as finally some of the awful news over the past months gets priced into the market. As Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly reminded U.S. Consumer Spending accounts for roughly 70% of economic output. So, it is important to pay attention to consumers’ mindsets. If individuals and households are worried about the direction of the domestic economy, they will likely be inclined to spend less and hang on to more of their hard-earned pay. The preliminary estimate of the Consumer Sentiment Index published two weeks ago by the University of Michigan (“UofM”) showed U.S. Consumer Sentiment hit an all-time low in June. Unrelentingly high inflation was the most-cited concern among Americans surveyed. The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey fell to 50.2 in June from 58.4 in May. The result missed the 58.1 consensus forecast. This represents a 14.0% decline month over month (“MOM”) and a 41.3% decline year over year (“YOY”). The Consumer Expectations Index, which gauges Americans’ faith in what the future of the economy may look like, fell even further – declining 15.2% MOM and 44% YOY. Americans’ fears were reinforced as the latest Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics showed that inflation is not slowing down like Wall Street hoped, especially after it showed signs of slowing in April. Given the negativity surrounding sentiment, if the S&P can ignore these results and rally from here, the amount of short-covering could see a rally that may surprise to the upside. ECB President Lagarde, said yesterday that the ECB will begin raising Rates next month by 25 Basis Points, helping the Euro to rally.
To mark my 2575th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 90 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3146 points for June after making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 0.22% higher at a price of 3675.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points lower for a 0.13% loss at a price of 29.888.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.24% higher at a price of 11,265.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.4% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.97% higher at a price of 26,277
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0531.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2246.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $135.05.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed nine basis points higher at 1.75%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 10 basis points higher at 2.60%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 3.23%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 7% lower at $108.58 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.61% lower at $1838.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already have Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have Existing Home Sales at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Thankfully the S&P rallied yesterday enabling me to cover my 3701 long position at my 3710 revised T/P level. As I alluded to in my Economic Commentary above is for the market to start rallying on bad news as it will mean that most of the negativity is priced in. I am looking for a rally into Month – End and the first week of July which is seasonally one of the strongest weeks’ of the year which includes the American Holiday of Independence on July 4th. Give how oversold and under loved, the market is, I will look to buy the S&P again on any dip lower to 3665/3695 with a 3639 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile I am still long from last Friday week at 3985 and given the points made last week, I will now lower my exit level on this position to 3915.
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0430/1.0490 with the same 103.75 stop.
March Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller from 104.55/105.05 with the same 105.75 stop.
No Change. My only interest in buying the DAX is still on a dip lower 12950/13050 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 12835 wider stop.
The FTSE surged yesterday, never coming close to my buy range and I am still flat. This morning the FTSE is trading at 7135 – 130 points higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. I will now raise my buy level to 7010/7070 with a higher 6955 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Given how oversold the Dow is trading the big question is have we seen at least a temporary bottom in the market. I believe we have with the Dow fallen over 3400 points in just 10 days. I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 29750/30050 with a 29575 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the negative price action and modest gains in American Indexes on Friday, the McClellan Oscillator improved to close at –166 from Thursday’s -242 print.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Sentiment towards Technology stocks is at the lowest level in many years. This negatively should help to see a meaningful rally commence sooner rather than later and is why I have been so stubborn in holding my existing long NDX and S&P positions are that are currently offside. Thankfully we have made some nice points over the last eight weeks to offset these potential loses. I am still seeing pockets of positive divergence on the NDX which is no surprise after a market has fallen over 36% this year. The NDX has support from 11000/11300 where I will be a buyer with a 10795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 11580. Meanwhile I will leave my 14327 long position unchanged with the same 13400 exit level
I am still flat the Bund as the market again traded in a wide range yesterday before falling over 100 points into the close. The Bund is oversold, has support from 141.90/142.60 where I will be a small buyer with a 141.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 143.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1808/1823 with the same 1799 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Last Friday, Silver traded lower to my 21.60 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 21.90 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 21.00 while leaving 20.35 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.