U.S. Equity Markets surged to start the week, finishing the day higher, led by both the S&P and NASDAQ which closed higher by 2.38% and 3.01% respectively. Equity markets rose in the early morning and held onto their gains. Vaccine optimism was a key driver, after Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) COVID-19 vaccine was granted an emergency use authorisation over the weekend. President Joe Biden said that JNJ will provide 20 million doses before the end of the year. Economic data were also positive. ISM Manufacturing data were stronger than expected in February, with strength in New Orders, Employment, and Production. This is another strong sign for the economic rebound. The House passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Friday, sending it to the Senate. Democrats are now targeting a signing of the bill before unemployment benefits run out in mid-March. European Markets Gained. The European Union’s offer of nuclear talks with the U.S. was rejected by Iran, potentially stoking tensions and limiting the available supply of oil. French European Affairs Minister Clément Beaune said his country had agreed to border controls with Germany, requiring evidence of a negative COVID-19 antigen test 48 hours prior to travel. Markit Euro-Zone’s final manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) data for February were stronger than the initial reading, as new orders continue to expand. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 32.7 million through yesterday, with a daily average of 888,300 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil declined 1.89% on reports that OPEC members were in favour of boosting production to account for increased demand, while Bitcoin closed 5.09% higher after Goldman Sachs reopened its Bitcoin trading desk, and Citibank said that the cryptocurrency could play a role in international trade.
To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 180 points yesterday on the first trading session for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 closed 2.38% higher at a price of 3901.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 603 points higher for a 1.95% gain at a price of 31,535.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.89% higher at a price of 13,282.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.86% lower at a price of 29,408.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.2031.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at $1.3901.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% lower at 106.84 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at -0.32%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed seven basis points lower at 0.75%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.42%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.89% lower at $59.62 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.43% lower at $1,718.70 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales for January which fell 4.5% versus +0.3% expected. At 8.55 am we have German Unemployment and this is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone CPI. Finally, we have ISM New York Business Conditions at 2.45 pm.
March S&P 500
The S&P reversed all of Friday’s sell-off plus some of Thursday’s losses as the market rallied to a rebound high so far at 3914. After the S&P hit my initial 3870 sell level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 3865 and I am still flat. If you did stay short overnight, it worked out as my original ‘’3901 Closing Stop’’ was not triggered. Either way I would go flat now as internally the market was strong yesterday with the McClellan Oscillator closing at -67, well below Friday’s -180 closing print. On top of this the VIX fell 16.5% and is now below both its 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages’ at a price of 23.35. The S&P has support from 3858/3873 where I will be a buyer with a 3843 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 3915/3930 where I will be a small seller with a 3943 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
This morning the Euro has sold off to my buy area and I am now long at 1.2008. I will add to this trade at 1.1968 with a tight 1.1935 stop which is just below the 1.1952 low print from February 5. I will have a T/P level on this position at 1.2035.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market continues to build value above the 90.00 key support level. I will now raise my buy level to 90.00/90.50 with a 89.55 stop.
I am still flat and today, I will raise my buy level to 13780/13850 with a 13695 stop. I will also raise my sell level to 14090/14160 with a tight 14205 stop.
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 6440/6490 with a 6395 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my sell range for a 31555 average short position before selling off to my 31495 revised T/P level and I am still flat. This morning, the Dow is trading lower at 31400. We have support from 31220/31360 where I will be a small buyer with a 31105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in selling the Dow is from 31850/32050 with a 32205 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
After my Dow sell level was triggered, I emailed my Platinum Members to raise their NASDAQ sell level and this was triggered for a 13250 average short position. This morning we sold off to my 13220 revised T/P level (Low 13181) and I am now flat. The NASDAQ did close above its 50 Day MA and this will act as strong support on any test. I will now be a buyer from 13090/13160 with a 12995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
The BUND reversed some of last week’s aggressive sell-of after continued verbal intervention by ECB Members. The ECB have made it clear that they will not tolerate a rise in Bond yields given the level of European Government debt which has accelerated due to the pandemic. The Bund has resistance from 174.95/175.55 where I will be a seller with a 176.05 stop. I am not going to chase the Bund higher and I will leave my 172.90/173.50 buy level unchanged with the same 172.45 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has got hit hard in the past 24 hours, hitting an overnight low at 1706. After my 17310 buy level was triggered we saw a small rally which allowed my to cover this position at 1735 as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Gold has strong support from 1673/1688 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a wider 1659 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded the whole of my buy range and I am now long at an average rate of 26.10. I will now lower my T/P level to 26.25 while leaving my 25.35 stop unchanged.