U.S. Equity Markets closed higher across the board, led by 2% rally in the NASDAQ 100. This move higher saw the VIX get crushed falling 8%, to a new 12-month low at a price of 17.87. The Federal Reserve raised Interest Rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The ADP Employment Report, for December showed that supply still far outpaces demand in the labour market as the number of job openings jumped 11 million, while the JOLTS Job Openings for January showed 106,000 new jobs were added – well below the 170,000 consensus and December’s figure of 253,000. Meanwhile the ISM PMI for January fell one percentage point from the prior month for the second consecutive contraction after 30 months of expansion. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting press conference that the disinflationary process has started but also noted that rates will need to remain restrictive for some time. Within the S&P 500 Index, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets finished mixed. Euro-Zone Preliminary CPI data for January showed a significant decline in pricing pressures, with Eurostat reporting a reading of 8.5% year over year (“YOY”). However, the number will likely be revised higher once delayed inflation numbers from Germany are in. The U.K.’s PMI data for January rose versus its preliminary reading. Output, new orders, and employment contracted even further to start the year, while Euro-Zone PMI data for January rose to a five-month high as cost pressures begin to fade. The Bank of England and European Central Bank will both hold rate-policy meetings this afternoon with expectations that both central banks will continue to tighten monetary policy. In Asia, China Manufacturing PMI for January improved from December as new orders and production continued to rebound. Japanese government subsidies aimed at alleviating energy bills came into effect Wednesday and is expected to last through September. A poll of economists found that expectations have risen for Japan’s Fourth-Quarter Gross Domestic Product, with most expecting a rebound of 2.3% following contraction in the previous quarter. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2.69% while Gold surged 1.09% to a new recovery high on a much weaker Dollar.

To mark my 2700th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 466 points yesterday, which was the first trading session for February after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 


The S&P 500 closed 1.05% higher at a price of 4119

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 7 points higher for a 0.02% gain at a price of 34,093.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.16% higher at a price of 12,363.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.026% lower.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.8%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.2% higher at a price of 27,402.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% lower.

The Euro closed 0.9% higher at $1.0989.

The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.2383.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.9% closing at $128.70.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.28%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 3.31%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 12 basis points lower at 3.39%.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.69% lower at $76.75 a barrel.

Gold closed 1.09% higher at $1949.10 an ounce.

This afternoon on the economic front we have the Bank of England Rate Decision at 12.00 pm, followed by a speech from BoE Governor Bailey at 12.30 pm. Next, we have ECB Rate Announcement at 1.15 pm, followed by the Lagarde press conference at 1.45 pm. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labour Costs and Non-Farm Productivity. Finally, we have Factory Orders at 3.00 pm.


Cash S&P 500

If Powell had the intention of fighting against loosening financial conditions his press conference was an abject failure. Mentioning that the Fed will cut rates later in the year if inflation falls was enough to produce a 110 Handle rally off the post FOMC Statement low at 4037 as yet again anyone shorting this market was slammed. The VIX hit a new 12-month low as a result with Bears now in big trouble as we are seeing a number of technical breakouts across the board. If we get the right earnings reports this evening and a benign NFP Report tomorrow then the S&P could well rally to 4200. There is no doubt that we are heading into key resistance as we get more overbought. The McClellan Oscillator closed last night at +180 leaving room for one more aggressive rally before the MO gives a sell signal. There is no doubt that the breakouts we have seen over the past few weeks are being aggressively defended on any sell-off. Yesterday, my S&P plan worked well with the market hitting my 4045 buy level before rallying to my 4061 T/P level. Subsequently the ‘’easing’’ comment from Powell saw the S&P hit my 4124 sell level. I emailed my Platinum Members saying there is no point in being short overnight and I covered this position at 4117 and I am now flat. The S&P has strong resistance from 4155/4172 where I will be a seller with a 4185 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have support from 4090/4105 where I will be a strong buyer with a 4078 ‘’Closing Stop’’.


The Euro rose over 1% yesterday, trading the whole of my sell range for a now 1.0970 average short position. The Euro has now rallied over 13% since the October low. This is a massive move resulting in the 14-Day RSI closing at an overbought 70 last night. I do not believe that the U.S. economy is weaker than Europe, believing that the market has got ahead of itself with the recent sell-off in the Dollar. I will leave my 1.1065 ‘’Closing Stop’’ while raising my T/P level on this short position to 1.0920.

March Dollar Index

Wrong! I was stopped out of my 102.10 long Dollar position at 101.25 and I am still flat. This morning, the Dollar is trading lower at 100.85. We have strong support from 99.90/100.50 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 99.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash DAX

No matter how weak the German economy is the DAX keeps moving higher. Thankfully we have had no sell levels in this market over the past few months. I keep mentioning ‘’A market than cannot fall on bad news has to be respected’’ This statement is one of the key tools to surviving trading markets. This morning, the DAX is trading at 15265. If it was not for the ECB Meeting today, I would be tempted to try a short position. The DAX has support from 15050/15130. I will move my buy level higher to this area with a tight 14975 ‘’Closing Stop’’.


I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Ahead of the Bank of England I will not chase the FTSE higher, leaving my 7650/7720 buy level unchanged with the same 7595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

Incredible price action in the Dow as the market hit a low at 33570 post the FOMC Statement before rallying nearly 800 points, only to lose 300 of these points into the close. After the Dow hit my 33720 buy level I covered this position at my revised 33850 T/P level and I am now flat. I had another buy level at 33550 but this level missed by 20 points before seeing the big 800-point rally. Frustratingly, the Dow missed my initial 34400 sell level by 50 points before selling off to close unchanged. Today, I will continue to be a strong seller from 34400/34650 with the same 34905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has support from 33600/33850 where I will be a buyer with a 33395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash NASDAQ 100

Frustratingly, the NDX missed yesterday’s 11950 buy level by 50 points before rallying to sit at 12500 this morning. The NDX has now rallied a massive 16% since the lows at the end of December. I am seeing sone negative divergences on this latest move higher. We have resistance from 12560/12710 where I will be a small seller with a 12805 tight ‘’Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be long the NDX at this time.

March BUND

The Bund rallied to my 137.30 T/P level on my latest 136.80 average long position, and I am now flat. Even though the Bund is trading higher at 137.40 this morning I am reluctant to chase the market higher especially as we have the ECB and BOE rate decisions in a few hours. The Bund has support from 135.80/136.50 where I will again be a buyer with a 134.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold surged after the Dollar fell and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1907/1922 with a higher 1893 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

My Silver plan worked well as the market sold off to my initial 23.40 buy level before rallying on the Powell reversal to hit my revised 23.96 T/P level and I am now flat. I will look to buy Silver again from 22.80/23.60 with no stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24.25.