U.S. Equity Markets had a strong finish to July before giving back a small portion of those gains in yesterday’s session which although quiet, had plenty of two-way price action. Markets rose Friday as tech earnings fuelled a strong end to the week. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) both reported positive outlooks as lower earnings expectations were cleared easily. Optimism grew among investors that a Fed rate hike pivot is coming by year’s end. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ personal consumption expenditure rose 1.3% from last month as high energy prices and service demand led the way. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index did not change much despite mounting recession fears and reversing inflation expectations. Markets fell yesterday as the July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) showed a slowdown in new orders and demand. However, price increases were the slowest over the past year, suggesting inflation could be easing. Bond yields continued to fall as money managers flocked toward safer investments. However, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari cooled Wall Street’s sentiment, telling the New York Times that he was surprised to see the market price in a near-term pivot of Fed policy. Within the S&P 500, 7 of 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. Euro-Zone PMI missed, with the steepest plunge in production since Q2 2020. German Retail Sales fell in June as high prices turned away consumers amid declining purchasing power. The Bank of England is considering its largest rate hike in 27 years on Thursday in an attempt to curb inflation. In Asia, China’s official manufacturing PMI fell short of consensus, as new orders, exports, and output all declined. Home Sales dropped even further in July as consumer confidence dwindled. Banks could face $350 billion in losses from the ongoing property crisis. Japan’s PMI sunk to its lowest level in 10 months, but it remains in expansion territory. Australia’s home prices slumped to their lowest levels since 2008 amid a surge in interest rates. Elsewhere, Oil fell 4.80% while Gold rose 0.33% on a weaker Dollar.

To mark my 2600th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 537 points yesterday on the first trading day of August, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification

 

Equities

 

The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower at a price of 4118.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 46 points lower for a 0.14% loss at a price of 32,798.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 12,940.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.45% lower at a price of 27,586.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% lower.

The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0260.

The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.2256.

The Japanese Yen rose 1.4% closing at $131.65.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 0.78%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 1.81%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower at 2.59%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.8% lower at $93.50 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.33% higher at $1771.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the U.K. The only U.S. Data is JOLTS Job Openings at 3.00 pm followed by a speech from Fed Member Evans at 3.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500

The S&P gained more ground last week despite a 0.75% rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday and a second Quarter of negative growth on Thursday. This move higher saw the S&P close above its 100 Day Moving Average at 4121. However, yesterday we closed slightly below this level while overnight the S&P sold off further to sit at 4100 as I go to press. The S&P is now severely oversold and a back test is desired to work off some of the overbought conditions before moving higher. The McClellan Oscillator closed at +287 on Friday and +257 last night. The last time we saw the MO close over +250 at the end of May, the S&P dropped 7% over the next week. Markets were in full vertical mode on Friday with no two-way price discovery as yet again short positions have been obliterated. The S&P has now rallied over 500 Handles since the late 3635 June low. Yesterday’s 4144 high print saw the Monthly 5EMA, Quarterly 5 EMA, Daily 100 MA, Weekly 100 MA and 20 MA all get tagged. Therefore, it is no surprise that we are selling off. My S&P plan has worked really well for my Platinum Members since Friday, helped by a couple of timely trades as emailed to these members. For the record, I sold the S&P at 4111, before covering this position at 4102. The late rally into Friday’s close saw my 4130 second sell level triggered before covering this position after Sunday’s open at 4115. Finally, the S&P rallied to my third sell level at 4132 before selling off to my 4112 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has resistance from 4120/4140 where I will again be a seller with a 4155 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given how overbought the S&P is trading I do not want to be long the market at this time.

EUR/USD

My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.0160 buy level before rallying to my 1.1102 revised T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the Euro is trading higher at 1.10270 helped by the mini-crash in Dollar/Yen which is now trading nearly 700 points lower from where I marked prices last Friday. The Euro has support from 1.0160/1.0220 where I will be a small buyer with a 1.0125 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.

March Dollar Index

The Dollar is testing 105 this morning, down over 4% from last month’s high which is no surprise given how overbought the Dollar had become. This move lower has me long at 104.95. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 104.35 while leaving my 103.55 stop unchanged for now. I will now lower my T/P to 105.35 and if any of the above levels are hit, I will come back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash DAX

For anyone who sold the DAX at my sell range of Friday and held the position until this morning then that trade worked nicely with the DAX back trading below 13400. Personally, I sold the DAX at 13450 before covering this position for a small gain at 13430 and I am now flat. The DAX has resistance from 13480/13560 where I will again be a seller with a tight 13625 stop.

Cash FTSE

My 7380 short FTSE position worked well with the market trading higher to my 7430 sell level shortly before Friday’s New York close before selling off yesterday afternoon to my 7395 revised T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 7420/7480 with a 7535 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow never came close to Friday’s buy level before rallying to close above its 100 Day MA at 32724. We closed over this key support level again last night but given how overbought the Dow is trading after rallying 3000 points since the end June low, a back test is desired before attempting to rally in the seasonally string end of August timeframe. The Dow has resistance at yesterday’s 32970 high print. As a result, I will be a small seller from 32900/33100 with a 33255 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has support from 32100/32350 where I will be a small buyer with a 31995 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has now closed over its 50 Day MA (31623) for the tenth consecutive session. This support level is now becoming more and more important. However, we are seeing some negative divergence at yesterday’s highs so a small pull back makes sense before we see the next leg-up. I have no interest in chasing the Dow lower. Surprisingly, the ‘’Fear & Greed Index only rose slightly last night, closing at 40 which is still a reading of ‘’Fear’’. A 50 print is neutral and when this happens it should propel the Dow higher given the level of bearishness amongst traders and Fund Managers.

Cash NASDAQ 100

I am still flat the NDX after exiting April’s foolishly held long-position for way too long. With Bond Yields hitting a three-month low I am reluctant to be seller of the NDX despite the weak price action this morning. The NDX has support from 12530/12730 where I will be a strong buyer with a 12385 stop.

September BUND

The Bund traded the whole of Friday’s sell range for a now 158.10 average short position. I will leave my 159.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 157.70 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold continued Thursday’s surge higher and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1735/1750 with a 1719 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1761.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still long from Friday at 20.08 with a now lower 20.75 stop. I will leave my 19.55 stop unchanged and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.