U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed on Monday with Tech weakness seeing the NASDAQ 100 close red but the majority of sectors were green with notable outperformance in Financials and Energy. Tech weakness was led by downside in Apple (AAPL) on lower-than-expected pre-order sale analysis. Treasuries ultimately bull flattened in response to a stronger New York Fed Manufacturing Survey reversing the earlier steepening induced by former NY Fed President Dudley who reiterated calls for 50bps, adding “i think they will” when talking about the Fed’s upcoming rate decision on Thursday. Money markets now price in a c. 60% probability of a 50bp rate cut on Wednesday vs the 48% probability seen on Friday. The only US data was the NY Fed Manufacturing Survey, which saw a strong beat led by New Orders and Shipments, while prices paid saw little change and employment saw a marginal improvement but remained in contractionary territory. In FX, The Dollar was weak on the dovish pricing while cyclical currencies benefitted, apart from the Canadian Dollar which was weighed on by dovish Governor Macklem comments to the FT that the Bank of Canada could shift cuts to 50bp magnitude should growth disappoint. Crude prices were bid with geopolitical tensions remaining despite downbeat China activity data over the weekend while geopolitical tensions remain heightened into the first anniversary of the Israel-Hamas conflict, with some suggesting Yemeni Houthis could increase their activities. NY Fed Manufacturing for September was much better than expected as the headline printed +11.5 (prev. -4.7, exp. -4.75), outside the upper bound of the forecast range, -0.6. Looking at the breakdown, new orders jumped to +9.4 from -7.9, prices paid were more-or-less unchanged at 23.2 (prev. 23.4), with employment coming in at -5.7 (prev. -6.7). Shipments and unfilled orders soared to 17.9 (prev. +0.3) and 2.1 (prev. -7.4), respectively. Expectations for six-months ahead also improved to 30.6 from 22.9, as did expectations for new orders and shipments. On the inflationary footing, prices paid rose while expectations for prices received marginally dipped. Overall, Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed, said “NY State manufacturing activity in September grew for the first time in nearly a year, with shipments increasing strongly. However, employment continued to decline modestly. Firms grew more optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, though capital spending plans were weak.” Elsewhere, Oil closed Monday with a 1.8% gain while Gold was flat as it consolidated last week’s impressive gains and is now ahead by 25% for the 2024.
To mark my 3075th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 100 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1713 points for September having ended August with a loss of 301 points after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments