U.S. Equity Markets ended Monday’s volatile trading session mixed as the Dow still closed slightly higher despite a 300-point sell-off into the close, while the NASDAQ 100 ended yesterday with a loss of 1.16%. At the same time the VIX followed on from last week, closing lower by 5% at a price of 27.47. Investor behaviour and sentiment continued to be impacted by inflation, the Federal Reserve, the Russia-Ukraine war, and China’s lockdowns. This has resulted in an ongoing sell-off of certain equities in favour of more defensive investments, as rising bond yields could limit stock gains. Combined with fears that the central bank may move too aggressively, these factors have many concerned the economy could soon enter a recessionary period. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds multiple speaking engagements this week with investors awaiting confirmation on how soon interest-rate hikes will begin. European Central Bank Governing Council Member François Villeroy de Galhau said it should be active this summer with policy changes, moving interest rates toward “neutral.” The European Commission lowered its growth outlook for this year from 4% to 2.7%, adding that the economy will barely grow if there are any serious disruptions to Russian energy supplies. Finland and Sweden’s governments backed resolutions to formally request NATO membership, with the group saying it will process the applications quickly. In Asia, Japan’s preliminary First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product data release on Wednesday is anticipated to show the economy experienced a sharp contraction. Japanese Product Price Index growth for April was better than expected, hitting its highest level since 1980 thanks to a rise in petroleum and lumber. Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers for April were weaker than estimated, as COVID-19-related lockdowns weighed on activity. Shanghai Deputy Mayor Chen Tong said the city would begin allowing businesses to reopen on a limited basis as COVID-19 due to easing infection rates. Elsewhere, Oil rose 3.36% higher on strong gasoline demand, while Gold gained 0.55% after a volatile trading session.

To mark my 2550th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 485 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1749 points for May having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.39% lower at a price of 4008.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12 points higher for a 0.04% gain at a price of 32,208.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.16% lower at a price of 12,243.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.45% higher at a price of 26,547.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.

The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0442.

The British Pound closed 0.6% higher at 1.2327.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $129.06.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.95%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 1.76%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points lower at 2.88%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.36% higher at $114.20 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.4% higher at $1824.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K Unemployment and Average Earnings at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone GDP and Employment Change at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Retail Sales at 1.30 pm, followed by Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production at 2.15 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index.

Cash S&P 500

The S&P finally rallied to my 4045 exit level on last Monday’s 4050 average long position. I was unlucky with my 3980 second buy level as twice the market just missed this buy range by three handles before having a strong rally on both occasions. The S&P hit a high at 4046.50 before selling off over 40 Handles into the close. The three things that I have been looking for to see a more sustainable equity rally was a reversal in Bond Yields which we have seen. The other two; Credit Spreads to narrow and a weaker Dollar have yet to happen. With the Dollar DSI in single digits I am expecting a Dollar sell-off to commence anytime now. Last week the S&P bottomed at a 20% correction which incidentally came at the 2021 lows of 3858 before so far rallying almost 190 Handles. Similar to the 2000 sell-off, Signal Charts continue to be set up for a violent bear market rally. Helping the bull case is the massive drop in P/E Ratios which have fallen from a high of 23.5 to just below 17 at last Thursday’s 8.00 pm low print. However, we are still in a bear market until we get back above the 200 Day Moving Average which comes in way above current prices at 4476. After the S&P sold off into the close I bought the market at a price of 4005. I will add to this trade at 3975 with a 3959 stop. I will have a T/P level at 4019 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

EUR/USD

No Change. I am still long from last Thursday at 1.0455 with the same 1.0550 T/P level. The Euro is severely oversold and despite all the paper talk that the Euro will soon break parity I am still bullish given how oversold the Euro is especially as the  DSI is in single digits. I continue to have no stop on this long position for now. At least the Euro had a small rally yesterday and is currently trading at 1.0440 as I go to press.

March Dollar Index

The Dollar missed my 104.70 sell level with a 104.65 high print and I am still flat. As I am still long the Euro I will not chase the Dollar lower, leaving my 104.70/105.30 sell level unchanged with the same 106.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 103.80.

Cash DAX

My DAX plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 13900 buy level before rallying to my 13960 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 13760/13860 with the same 13695 stop. I still have no interest in pressing the downside given how oversold the DAX is at this time.

Cash FTSE

My FTSE plan also worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 7340 buy level before rallying to my 7390 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has support from 7320/7390 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 7275 tight stop.

Dow Rolling Contract

While the S&P closed lower for six consecutive weeks last Friday, the Dow had a losing streak of seven weeks for the first time since 1980. This puts into context the extent of the 2022 bear market. Yesterday my Dow plan worked well with the market selling off to my 31950 buy level before rallying to my 32200 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow hit an evening high at 32510 before selling off 300 points into the close to sit at 32300 as I go to press. The Dow has strong support from 31680/31930 where I will again be a buyer with the same 31395 wider stop. Sentiment is still on the floor as shown by the Fear & Greed Index which again closed at a reading of 12 last night which is ‘’Extreme Fear’’

Cash NASDAQ 100

No Change. I continue to nurse last month’s 14327 long position which I have now carried into May. I will now lower my exit level on this position to 14100 which I am hopeful we will see this month. The NDX has support from 11900/12100 and I will add to my existing position on any drop to this level with a 11795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12290.

June BUND

My Bund plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 153.05 buy level before rallying to my revised 153.40 T/P level and I am still flat. The Bund closed in New York at 153.70. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 152.40/153.20 with the same 151.65 stop.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold had a wild trading session, hitting a low of 1787 before thankfully rallying into the close, hitting my 1823 T/P level on my latest 1815 average long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1793/1808 with a 1779 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

My latest 20.80 long position worked well with Silver rallying to my 21.40 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver has support from 20.50/21.10 where I will again be a buyer with a 19.95 stop.