The Dow broke a five-day losing streak to close higher by 0.14%. It was another session when nothing mattered. The Empire Fed Manufacturing Report missed by a factor of 10 coming in at -31.8%, showing a complete collapse in Orders. The S&P hit a low at 4110 on this news before buyers returned driving all three Indexes higher on the day. Worries over the U.S. defaulting on its debt continue to rise as congressional leaders and President Biden work to negotiate a deal. The supposed “deadline” of June 1 that was first reported by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is now only two weeks away. With each day that passes, market volatility will increase, creating an undesirable scenario for many investors. The next meeting between President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy is scheduled for this afternoon. Earnings seasons continues this week with retail bellwethers Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) set to report first quarter earnings. Investors will be closely watching retail earnings this season to get a better gauge on the status of inventory levels and consumer demand heading into the summer. Investors will be paying close attention to the remarks of several Federal Reserve officials who have scheduled speaking appearances this week. Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr is scheduled to testify before Congress regarding the recent turmoil in the banking sector and address questions related to the central bank’s response to the matter. The collective tone of Fedspeak this week could significantly influence investors’ opinions on the future of rate policy. European Markets closed higher. The Euro-Zone is set for a big week of economic releases ahead. In Europe we will see the latest data on business conditions and sentiment. In the U.K., investors will be keenly watching for an update on labour data which could highly influence the Bank of England’s next rate policy meeting. In Asia, China, has an influx of data will be released early in the week as investors look to see if the world’s second-largest economy has gained any momentum in its recovery that has appeared to be lost in recent months. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.53% while Gold closed higher by 0.20%.

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The S&P 500 closed 0.30% higher at a price of 4136.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 48 points higher for a 0.14% gain at a price of 33,348.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.55% higher at a price of 13,413.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.21% higher.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.40% higher.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.77% higher at a price of 29,853.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.

The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0872.

The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2520.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $136.03.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.30%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 3.80%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 3.50%.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.53% higher at $71.11 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.20% higher at $2016.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K April Payrolls which fell 135K versus last month’s +31k. The Unemployment Rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% while Average Earnings were unchanged at 5.8%. At 10.00 am we have German ZEW Survey and Euro-Zone GDP, Trade Balance and the Unemployment Change. Next, we have U.S. Retail Sales and Canadian CPI at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm. Finally, we have Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm. Meanwhile, Fed Members Mester, Bostic, Williams and Logan are speaking at 1.15 pm, 1.55 pm, 5.15 pm and 8.15 pm respectively.

Cash S&P 500

The frustrating chop continues as traders look for direction. With tech stocks jammed overbought the Dow had its first up day as everyone waits for news on the debt ceiling. Consumer Sentiment is at a six-month low. History tells us that this is a contrarian bullish signal. Remember, studies show us that retail investors buy when they should be selling and sell when they should be buying. If you know the psychology is so negative, then it makes sense to flip that around. The other interesting report that I read over the weekend is the fact that discretionary investors are so underweight stocks as to be laughable. This report that I read shows investors in the ninth percentile. This happened before in the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the post Internet Bubble burst in 2001 and the base of the COVID bottom. All three times the S&P surged. This remains a very choppy frustrating market with low ranges and low volume and low volatility. The S&P closed at 4136 last night. That is the 10th close between 4130 and 4138 in the past three weeks. This morning the S&P is trading lower at 4124. I am not going to chase the market higher leaving my 4089/4105 buy level unchanged with the same 4079 tight Closing Stop. Given my concerns above I no longer want to be short the S&P at this time. There is a risk that on any positive talks on the debt ceiling that we may spike to the next key resistance level at 4235/4250. If this happens I will be an aggressive seller with no stop.


No Change. The Euro traded in a narrow 30-point range yesterday and I am still flat. The Euro has support from 1.0740/1.0810 where I will continue to be a buyer with a 1.0695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.

June Dollar Index

I am still flat the Dollar. I will leave my 101.50/102.10 buy level unchanged with the same 100.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash DAX

No Change. The DAX traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a small seller on any further rally to 16010/16100 with a higher 16205 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The DAX is trading 11% above its 200 Day Moving Average. This is pretty extended and another reason why not to be long the market.


The FTSE rallied as I posted yesterday morning. I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to my buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 7640/7710 with a higher 7595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the Bank of England hiking rates last week, I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

Unfortunately, the Dow missed my initial 33100 buy level by 65 points before rallying 250 points off this low and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 32850/33100 with the same 32695 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash NASDAQ 100

Just before the Chicago close the NDX traded higher to my initial 13420 sell level. I am still short with the same 13330 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 13570 while leaving my 13705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.


This morning, the Bund traded higher to my 136.20 T/P level on yesterday’s 135.70 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 135.00/135.70 with the same  134.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1983/1998 with the same 1975 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered I will have a T/P level at 2009.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 25.00 with the same 23.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer from 22.80/23.50 with no stop. Meanwhile I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 25.20. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.