U.S Markets opened higher before chopping around with the NASDAQ 100 falling over 200 points before staging a late rally to close just 0.50% lower. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump signed a number of executive orders to extend unemployment insurance benefits, suspend payroll taxes, help with student-loan payments, and avoid evictions. But there were also questions about the effectiveness of these orders over a comprehensive stimulus plan. Stimulus talks are set to continue between the White House and Democrats. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin expressed optimism over the negotiations, but did not put a timetable on when they would start up again. There were also positive signs on economic recovery, with the Transportation Safety Administration (“TSA”) reporting the highest number of airline travelers since March. European Equity Markets gained as Euro-Zone Investor Confidence data for August were stronger than expected, rising versus July and signalling the regional economic rebound should continue to improve. The European Union suspended enforcement of budget rules due to the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing Member States to support their economies. EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides said there are good indications a Coronavirus vaccine could be ready by the end of this year. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2% higher as Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser made positive comments on Crude Oil demand while Gold closed flat after a volatile trading session.
To mark my 2125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 224 points yesterday and is now ahead by 529 points for August having ended July with a gain of 3128 points, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 closed 0.25% higher at a price of 3360, for a new recovery high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 357 points for a 1.20% gain to close at 27,791.
The NASDAQ fell 0.50%, closing at 11,085.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.4%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.
This morning the Nikkei is closed 1.88% higher at 22,750.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.2%.
The Euro decreased 0.3% to $1.1740.
The British Pound closed basically flat at $1.3060.
The Japanese Yen closed flat at 105.91 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 0.56%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.53%.
Britain’s 10-year yield rose four basis points to 011%.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index climbed 0.2%.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.0% to $41.91 a barrel.
Gold weakened and closed flat at $2,030.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK Employment Figures which rose 94.4K versus last month’s 28.1K fall. At 10.00 am we have the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey. This is followed at 12.00 pm by U.S NFIB Small Business Optimism. Finally, we have PPI at 1.30 pm.
September S&P 500
The S&P hit a rebound high at 3367.75 earlier this morning as the market closes in on its February all-time high at 3393. Internally the market continues to struggle with the McClellan Oscillator only closing at +114, despite the S&P closing higher for the seventh consecutive trading session. The Fear & Greed Index closed last night with a reading of 75 which is ‘’Extreme Greed’’ and needs to be watched closely as traders become complacent. The S&P is severely overbought and is due a serious correction but with the Fed intent on buying everything, it is very difficult to be short. I am still looking for the S&P to fall back below 3300 before we make a final move above 3400. Today I will raise my sell level to 3378/3393 with a tight 3405 stop. The S&P just missed my initial 3328 buy level before rallying into the close.. We have support from 3325/3340 where I will be a buyer with a 3314 stop.
Overnight, the Euro traded lower to my 1.1730 buy level before rallying to my revised 1.1754 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members at 7.00 am and I am now flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.1640/1.1690 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.1595 stop. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1835/1.1875 with a 1.1915 stop.
September Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 92.60/93.05 with the same 92.15 stop.
My DAX plan worked well with the market selling off to my 12610 buy level shortly after I posted yesterday morning. Subsequently the DAX surged to sit at 12785 as I go to press. Unfortunately, I covered this long position too early at 12640 and I am still flat. Today, I will leave my 12900/13050 sell level unchanged with the same 13135 stop. The DAX has support from 12520/12660 where I will be a buyer with a 12465 tight stop.
I am still flat as the FTSE fell shy of my 5970 buy level. This morning the FTSE is again struggling to rally, trading at 6055. Remember it was the FTSE that topped first back in late November as was the first major Index to fall ahead of the February crash. With valuations in some US Indices at mind boggling levels, we have to be on alert for a reversal beginning any time despite the Fed’s best intentions. Despite my concerns for the FTSE, I am reluctant to go short. Today, I will raise my buy level slightly to 5950/5995 with a higher 5912 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow has now rallied almost 2000 points since testing its 200 Day Moving Average just 10 days ago. Yesterday my Dow plan worked well, but you had to be quick as after the market hit my 27700 sell level we saw a quick 130 point sell-off which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 27595 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has strong resistance from 27950/28150 where I will again be a seller with a 28325 stop. My only interest in buying the Dow is still from 27100/27300 with the same 26950 stop.
The NASDAQ had wild trading session yesterday. The market sold off over 200 points from when I posted to hit an afternoon low at 10930 before rallying to sit at 11100 this morning. The NASDAQ looks tired which is no surprise after making over 30 new all-time highs already this year and is due a strong retracement. Today, I will lower my sell level to 11200/11300 with a 11395 stop. The NASDAQ has initial support from 10750/10850 where I will be a buyer with a tight 10665 stop.
No Change as I am still a small seller from 177.80/178.20 with the same 178.55 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to trade heavy since peaking at 2076 early yesterday morning. Overnight Gold traded lower to my initial 2002 buy level before rallying to my revised 2008.50 T/P level and I am still flat. As I go to press, Gold is trading lower at 1994. We have strong support from 1965/1980 where I will again look to buy the market with a 1954 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1989.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer from 26.40/27.05 with the same 25.75 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 27.55.