U.S. Equity Markets were mixed on a quiet day’s trading with the Dow closing flat while the NASDAQ 100 closed 0.28% higher. Markets were mixed following a decline on Tuesday. Early in the morning, headlines were focused on JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s shareholder letter, where he said that the U.S.’s economic “boom” could carry over until 2023. There was nothing new out of the Federal Reserve’s Minutes from the most recent meeting. The Minutes showed that many Fed members see any increased inflation only to be temporary, easing fears of a sustained spike. And Fed speakers voiced more support for the economy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the Fed’s balance sheet was far from hitting any limits, meaning that it can continue its asset purchases. And Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that the Fed will not raise rates to combat inflation as quickly as it has in the past, signalling a continued period of low Interest Rates. European Markets declined. The European Central Bank’s (“ECB”) Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said the European Union’s economy was recovering, adding that the ECB is considering extending stimulus measures beyond March 2022. Markit’s final Euro-Zone composite purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) showed new orders hit their highest levels since September 2018. On the vaccine front, EU officials said that they found possible links between AstraZeneca’s vaccine and blood clots, while also saying that the benefits of the shot outweigh the risks. And officials from Europe, the U.S., and Iran discussed potentially easing sanctions and reducing uranium enrichment to bring all parties back into the 2015 nuclear accord. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.42% higher after the Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) reported another oil inventory drawdown, while Bitcoin fell 5% on no news.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it finished flat again yesterday as none of my calls were hit and is still down 585 points for April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 closed 0.15% higher at a price of 4079.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 16 points higher for a 0.05% gain at a price of 33,448.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.28% higher at a price of 13,616.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.12% higher at a price of 29,730.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1874.
The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at $1.3735.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% lower at 109.85 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.32%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.77%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.67%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.42% higher at $59.61 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.33% lower at $1,735.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Factory Orders at 7.00 am and this is followed by UK Construction Markit PMI at 9.30 am. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone PPI, followed by the Minutes of last Month’s ECB Meeting at 12.30 pm. Finally, we have U.S Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm and a speech from Fed Chairman Powell at 5.00 pm.
June S&P 500
For the second consecutive trading session, the S&P traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level ahead of Powell’s speech this evening to 4092/4107 with a higher 4121 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 4015/4030 where I will be an aggressive buyer with the same 4003 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
The Euro rebounded to a high of 1.1914 before selling off 45 points into the New York close and I am still flat. I will continue to be a small buyer on any further dip to 1.1800/1.1840 while leaving my stop unchanged at 1.1755. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
No Change. I am still long at 92.55 with the same 92.75 T/P level. My stop remains unchanged at 92.18 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The DAX was weak yesterday which is no surprise given how high it ran on Tuesday after the Easter Holidays. I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level slightly to 14960/15030 with a higher 14895 stop.
The weakness in Sterling saw the FTSE rally to a three-month high. This move saw my 6845 sell level executed. I am still short and I will add to this trade at 6895 with a now higher 6931 stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this short position to 6815 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) has now jumped to 90% bulls. This is the highest level in 7 ½ months. The last time we saw a 90% reading was August 26, 2020, five days before the Dow topped on September 2, leading to a 11% fall over the following 15 trading days. It took two months before this September 2 high was exceeded. On top of this we have a confirmed Hindenburg Omen from last month while yesterday’s positive close for the Dow came with a negative Advance/Decline Ratio. Total volume for yesterday was just 9.5 billion share, the slowest trading day for the year. In my opinion, the trend of contracting volume attended by investor optimism at extreme levels, is compatible with a scenario where this rally is in the terminal stage. I am still flat the Dow. I will now lower my sell level to 33590/33750 with a lower 33905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my buy level to 32950/33150 with a 32825 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 13740/13820 with a 13905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 13370/13280 with the same 13195 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
The boring sideways action in the Bund continues and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 170.65/171.05 with the same 170.29 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold. The market is struggling to break the key 1750/1760 resistance area. I am not going to move my buy level higher and I will continue to be a small buyer from 1695/1710 with the same 1683 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 24.10/24.70 with the same 23.55 stop. If I am taken long I will have a higher 24.05 T/P level.